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Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)","Demo synthetic: AAPL announces platform refresh for enterprise buyers","Street target implies 4.2%"],"key_risks":["Historic drawdown deeper than 52%","Binary event: 2026-10-23"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 24.9% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 200.38 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 40% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":4685,"security_id":1,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"6M","generated_at":"2026-10-23 17:35:22","ref_price":136.25,"bull_low_pct":9,"bull_high_pct":16.5,"base_low_pct":-6,"base_high_pct":7.5,"bear_low_pct":-15,"bear_high_pct":-7.5,"prob_up":0.52,"p10_pct":-12,"p25_pct":-6,"p50_pct":0,"p75_pct":7.5,"p90_pct":13.5,"expected_range_low":-6,"expected_range_high":7.5,"risk_range_low":-15,"risk_range_high":7.5,"confidence":68,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 25%, score 54, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"low","volatility_ann":24.9,"max_hist_drawdown":"-52.4000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":0,"bull_case":"If a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: momentum is fading. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)","Demo synthetic: AAPL announces platform refresh for enterprise buyers","Street target implies 4.2%"],"key_risks":["Historic drawdown deeper than 52%","Binary event: 2026-10-23"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 24.9% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 200.38 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 40% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":4686,"security_id":1,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"12M","generated_at":"2026-10-23 17:35:22","ref_price":136.25,"bull_low_pct":12.5,"bull_high_pct":22.5,"base_low_pct":-7.5,"base_high_pct":10,"bear_low_pct":-22.5,"bear_high_pct":-10,"prob_up":0.52,"p10_pct":-17.5,"p25_pct":-7.5,"p50_pct":0,"p75_pct":10,"p90_pct":17.5,"expected_range_low":-7.5,"expected_range_high":10,"risk_range_low":-22.5,"risk_range_high":10,"confidence":68,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 25%, score 54, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"low","volatility_ann":24.9,"max_hist_drawdown":"-52.4000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":0,"bull_case":"If a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: momentum is fading. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)","Demo synthetic: AAPL announces platform refresh for enterprise buyers","Street target implies 4.2%"],"key_risks":["Historic drawdown deeper than 52%","Binary event: 2026-10-23"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 24.9% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 200.38 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 40% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"}],"available":true,"as_of":"2026-10-23","mode":"demo","note":"Stored snapshot values; not a real-time feed."}