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Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":"","key_risks":["Elevated realised volatility (50%)","Historic drawdown deeper than 62%"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 50.6% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 713.95 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 81% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":9594,"security_id":1129,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"12M","generated_at":"2026-10-25 04:14:01","ref_price":545,"bull_low_pct":22.5,"bull_high_pct":45,"base_low_pct":-20,"base_high_pct":17.5,"bear_low_pct":-47.5,"bear_high_pct":-25,"prob_up":0.49,"p10_pct":-35,"p25_pct":-20,"p50_pct":0,"p75_pct":17.5,"p90_pct":35,"expected_range_low":-20,"expected_range_high":17.5,"risk_range_low":-47.5,"risk_range_high":17.5,"confidence":52,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 51%, score 49, coverage 84%%","risk_level":"high","volatility_ann":50.6,"max_hist_drawdown":"-62.3000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":112441,"bull_case":"If a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: realised volatility already elevated; momentum is fading. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":"","key_risks":["Elevated realised volatility (50%)","Historic drawdown deeper than 62%"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 50.6% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 713.95 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 81% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"}],"available":true,"as_of":"2026-10-23","mode":"demo","note":"Stored snapshot values; not a real-time feed."}