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Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Demo synthetic: GCU27 confirms exploratory talks with supplier","Demo synthetic: GCU27 confirms exploratory talks with supplier","Demo synthetic: GCU27 confirms exploratory talks with supplier"],"key_risks":"No exceptional risk flags from stored data; normal market risk always applies","assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 18.6% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 2583.34 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 30% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":9384,"security_id":172,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"12M","generated_at":"2026-10-25 04:14:01","ref_price":2647.277,"bull_low_pct":12.5,"bull_high_pct":20,"base_low_pct":-5,"base_high_pct":10,"bear_low_pct":-15,"bear_high_pct":-5,"prob_up":0.58,"p10_pct":-10,"p25_pct":-5,"p50_pct":2.5,"p75_pct":10,"p90_pct":15,"expected_range_low":-5,"expected_range_high":10,"risk_range_low":-15,"risk_range_high":10,"confidence":56,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 19%, score 66, coverage 84%%","risk_level":"low","volatility_ann":18.6,"max_hist_drawdown":"-20.5000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":112441,"bull_case":"If price above the 200-day average (trend intact), RSI mid-range — room to extend, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: a market-wide risk-off move alone can carry the 5–20th percentile band. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Demo synthetic: GCU27 confirms exploratory talks with supplier","Demo synthetic: GCU27 confirms exploratory talks with supplier","Demo synthetic: GCU27 confirms exploratory talks with supplier"],"key_risks":"No exceptional risk flags from stored data; normal market risk always applies","assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 18.6% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 2583.34 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 30% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"}],"available":true,"as_of":"2026-10-23","mode":"demo","note":"Stored snapshot values; not a real-time feed."}