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Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Demo synthetic: GLD faces second request in pending acquisition","Demo synthetic: GLD faces second request in pending acquisition","Demo synthetic: GLD faces second request in pending acquisition","Volatility compression (squeeze)"],"key_risks":"No exceptional risk flags from stored data; normal market risk always applies","assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 6% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 226.03 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 10% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":8994,"security_id":102,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"12M","generated_at":"2026-10-25 04:14:00","ref_price":232,"bull_low_pct":2.5,"bull_high_pct":5,"base_low_pct":-2.5,"base_high_pct":2.5,"bear_low_pct":-5,"bear_high_pct":-2.5,"prob_up":0.56,"p10_pct":-2.5,"p25_pct":-2.5,"p50_pct":0,"p75_pct":2.5,"p90_pct":5,"expected_range_low":-2.5,"expected_range_high":2.5,"risk_range_low":-5,"risk_range_high":2.5,"confidence":58,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 6%, score 62, coverage 89%%","risk_level":"low","volatility_ann":6,"max_hist_drawdown":"-6.5000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":112440,"bull_case":"If price above the 200-day average (trend intact), RSI mid-range — room to extend, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: the name is priced near its 52-week high, leaving little cushion. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Demo synthetic: GLD faces second request in pending acquisition","Demo synthetic: GLD faces second request in pending acquisition","Demo synthetic: GLD faces second request in pending acquisition","Volatility compression (squeeze)"],"key_risks":"No exceptional risk flags from stored data; normal market risk always applies","assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 6% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 226.03 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 10% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"}],"available":true,"as_of":"2026-10-23","mode":"demo","note":"Stored snapshot values; not a real-time feed."}