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Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Demo synthetic: HGH27 cut to neutral on valuation","Demo synthetic: HGH27 cut to neutral on valuation","Demo synthetic: HGH27 cut to neutral on valuation"],"key_risks":"Thin average dollar volume — fills and exits will cost you","assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 18.6% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 4.15 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 30% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":9420,"security_id":178,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"12M","generated_at":"2026-10-25 04:14:01","ref_price":4.2677,"bull_low_pct":7.5,"bull_high_pct":17.5,"base_low_pct":-7.5,"base_high_pct":7.5,"bear_low_pct":-17.5,"bear_high_pct":-7.5,"prob_up":0.5,"p10_pct":-12.5,"p25_pct":-7.5,"p50_pct":0,"p75_pct":7.5,"p90_pct":12.5,"expected_range_low":-7.5,"expected_range_high":7.5,"risk_range_low":-17.5,"risk_range_high":7.5,"confidence":53,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 19%, score 50, coverage 84%%","risk_level":"low","volatility_ann":18.6,"max_hist_drawdown":"-39.9000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":112441,"bull_case":"If price above the 200-day average (trend intact), a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: a market-wide risk-off move alone can carry the 5–20th percentile band. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Demo synthetic: HGH27 cut to neutral on valuation","Demo synthetic: HGH27 cut to neutral on valuation","Demo synthetic: HGH27 cut to neutral on valuation"],"key_risks":"Thin average dollar volume — fills and exits will cost you","assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 18.6% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 4.15 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 30% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"}],"available":true,"as_of":"2026-10-23","mode":"demo","note":"Stored snapshot values; not a real-time feed."}