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Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-12-10 (after close)","Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, ISRG beta repriced","Demo synthetic: ISRG completes share buyback tranche","Demo synthetic: ISRG faces second request in pending acquisition","Street target implies 1.2%"],"key_risks":"Binary event: 2026-12-10","assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 19% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 647.09 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 30% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":6166,"security_id":53,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"3M","generated_at":"2026-10-24 23:42:35","ref_price":541.81,"bull_low_pct":4.5,"bull_high_pct":9,"base_low_pct":-3,"base_high_pct":4.5,"bear_low_pct":-7.5,"bear_high_pct":-4.5,"prob_up":0.52,"p10_pct":-6,"p25_pct":-3,"p50_pct":0,"p75_pct":4.5,"p90_pct":7.5,"expected_range_low":-3,"expected_range_high":4.5,"risk_range_low":-7.5,"risk_range_high":4.5,"confidence":59,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 19%, score 54, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"low","volatility_ann":19,"max_hist_drawdown":"-31.3000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":96155,"bull_case":"If a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: momentum is fading. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-12-10 (after close)","Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, ISRG beta repriced","Demo synthetic: ISRG completes share buyback tranche","Demo synthetic: ISRG faces second request in pending acquisition","Street target implies 1.2%"],"key_risks":"Binary event: 2026-12-10","assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 19% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 647.09 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 30% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":6167,"security_id":53,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"6M","generated_at":"2026-10-24 23:42:35","ref_price":541.81,"bull_low_pct":6,"bull_high_pct":12,"base_low_pct":-4.5,"base_high_pct":6,"bear_low_pct":-12,"bear_high_pct":-6,"prob_up":0.52,"p10_pct":-9,"p25_pct":-4.5,"p50_pct":0,"p75_pct":6,"p90_pct":10.5,"expected_range_low":-4.5,"expected_range_high":6,"risk_range_low":-12,"risk_range_high":6,"confidence":59,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 19%, score 54, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"low","volatility_ann":19,"max_hist_drawdown":"-31.3000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":96155,"bull_case":"If a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: momentum is fading. 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