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Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":"Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, SMH beta repriced","key_risks":"Historic drawdown deeper than 56%","assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 35.1% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 223.12 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 56% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":9012,"security_id":105,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"12M","generated_at":"2026-10-25 04:14:00","ref_price":190,"bull_low_pct":30,"bull_high_pct":60,"base_low_pct":-22.5,"base_high_pct":25,"bear_low_pct":-55,"bear_high_pct":-27.5,"prob_up":0.51,"p10_pct":-42.5,"p25_pct":-22.5,"p50_pct":2.5,"p75_pct":25,"p90_pct":45,"expected_range_low":-22.5,"expected_range_high":25,"risk_range_low":-55,"risk_range_high":25,"confidence":53,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 35%, score 55, coverage 89%%","risk_level":"high","volatility_ann":35.1,"max_hist_drawdown":"-55.7000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":112440,"bull_case":"If RSI mid-range — room to extend, outperforming the benchmark over 3 months, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: a market-wide risk-off move alone can carry the 5–20th percentile band. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":"Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, SMH beta repriced","key_risks":"Historic drawdown deeper than 56%","assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 35.1% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 223.12 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 56% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"}],"available":true,"as_of":"2026-10-23","mode":"demo","note":"Stored snapshot values; not a real-time feed."}