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Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-12-10 (as scheduled)","Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, TMUS beta repriced","Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, TMUS beta repriced","Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, TMUS beta repriced","Street target implies 11.7%"],"key_risks":"Binary event: 2026-12-10","assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 36.6% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 122.47 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 59% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":5955,"security_id":18,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"1M","generated_at":"2026-10-24 23:42:35","ref_price":119.14,"bull_low_pct":7,"bull_high_pct":12,"base_low_pct":-3,"base_high_pct":6,"bear_low_pct":-10,"bear_high_pct":-5,"prob_up":0.54,"p10_pct":-8,"p25_pct":-3,"p50_pct":1,"p75_pct":6,"p90_pct":10,"expected_range_low":-3,"expected_range_high":6,"risk_range_low":-10,"risk_range_high":6,"confidence":56,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 37%, score 61, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"low","volatility_ann":36.6,"max_hist_drawdown":"-38.6000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":96155,"bull_case":"If RSI mid-range — room to extend, outperforming the benchmark over 3 months, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: a market-wide risk-off move alone can carry the 5–20th percentile band. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-12-10 (as scheduled)","Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, TMUS beta repriced","Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, TMUS beta repriced","Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, TMUS beta repriced","Street target implies 11.7%"],"key_risks":"Binary event: 2026-12-10","assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 36.6% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 122.47 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 59% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":5956,"security_id":18,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"3M","generated_at":"2026-10-24 23:42:35","ref_price":119.14,"bull_low_pct":12,"bull_high_pct":21,"base_low_pct":-6,"base_high_pct":9,"bear_low_pct":-18,"bear_high_pct":-7.5,"prob_up":0.54,"p10_pct":-13.5,"p25_pct":-6,"p50_pct":1.5,"p75_pct":9,"p90_pct":16.5,"expected_range_low":-6,"expected_range_high":9,"risk_range_low":-18,"risk_range_high":9,"confidence":56,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 37%, score 61, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"low","volatility_ann":36.6,"max_hist_drawdown":"-38.6000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":96155,"bull_case":"If RSI mid-range — room to extend, outperforming the benchmark over 3 months, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: a market-wide risk-off move alone can carry the 5–20th percentile band. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-12-10 (as scheduled)","Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, TMUS beta repriced","Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, TMUS beta repriced","Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, TMUS beta repriced","Street target implies 11.7%"],"key_risks":"Binary event: 2026-12-10","assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 36.6% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 122.47 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 59% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":5957,"security_id":18,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"6M","generated_at":"2026-10-24 23:42:35","ref_price":119.14,"bull_low_pct":16.5,"bull_high_pct":30,"base_low_pct":-9,"base_high_pct":13.5,"bear_low_pct":-24,"bear_high_pct":-10.5,"prob_up":0.54,"p10_pct":-18,"p25_pct":-9,"p50_pct":3,"p75_pct":13.5,"p90_pct":24,"expected_range_low":-9,"expected_range_high":13.5,"risk_range_low":-24,"risk_range_high":13.5,"confidence":56,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 37%, score 61, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"medium","volatility_ann":36.6,"max_hist_drawdown":"-38.6000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":96155,"bull_case":"If RSI mid-range — room to extend, outperforming the benchmark over 3 months, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: a market-wide risk-off move alone can carry the 5–20th percentile band. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-12-10 (as scheduled)","Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, TMUS beta repriced","Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, TMUS beta repriced","Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, TMUS beta repriced","Street target implies 11.7%"],"key_risks":"Binary event: 2026-12-10","assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 36.6% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 122.47 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 59% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":5958,"security_id":18,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"12M","generated_at":"2026-10-24 23:42:35","ref_price":119.14,"bull_low_pct":22.5,"bull_high_pct":42.5,"base_low_pct":-12.5,"base_high_pct":20,"bear_low_pct":-35,"bear_high_pct":-15,"prob_up":0.54,"p10_pct":-25,"p25_pct":-12.5,"p50_pct":2.5,"p75_pct":20,"p90_pct":32.5,"expected_range_low":-12.5,"expected_range_high":20,"risk_range_low":-35,"risk_range_high":20,"confidence":56,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 37%, score 61, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"medium","volatility_ann":36.6,"max_hist_drawdown":"-38.6000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":96155,"bull_case":"If RSI mid-range — room to extend, outperforming the benchmark over 3 months, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: a market-wide risk-off move alone can carry the 5–20th percentile band. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-12-10 (as scheduled)","Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, TMUS beta repriced","Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, TMUS beta repriced","Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, TMUS beta repriced","Street target implies 11.7%"],"key_risks":"Binary event: 2026-12-10","assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 36.6% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 122.47 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 59% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"}],"available":true,"as_of":"2026-10-23","mode":"demo","note":"Stored snapshot values; not a real-time feed."}