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Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-12-10 (after close)","Demo synthetic: AMD faces second request in pending acquisition","Demo synthetic: AMD faces second request in pending acquisition","Demo synthetic: AMD faces second request in pending acquisition","Street target implies -1%"],"key_risks":["Elevated realised volatility (50.6%)","Historic drawdown deeper than 62%","Binary event: 2026-12-10"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 51.9% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 823.71 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 83% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":8415,"security_id":6,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"1M","generated_at":"2026-10-25 04:13:59","ref_price":521.19,"bull_low_pct":12,"bull_high_pct":23,"base_low_pct":-10,"base_high_pct":9,"bear_low_pct":-24,"bear_high_pct":-12,"prob_up":0.49,"p10_pct":-19,"p25_pct":-10,"p50_pct":0,"p75_pct":9,"p90_pct":18,"expected_range_low":-10,"expected_range_high":9,"risk_range_low":-24,"risk_range_high":9,"confidence":55,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 52%, score 48, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"medium","volatility_ann":51.9,"max_hist_drawdown":"-62.2000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":112439,"bull_case":"If a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: P/E 39× leaves no valuation buffer; realised volatility already elevated; momentum is fading. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-12-10 (after close)","Demo synthetic: AMD faces second request in pending acquisition","Demo synthetic: AMD faces second request in pending acquisition","Demo synthetic: AMD faces second request in pending acquisition","Street target implies -1%"],"key_risks":["Elevated realised volatility (50.6%)","Historic drawdown deeper than 62%","Binary event: 2026-12-10"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 51.9% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 823.71 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 83% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":8416,"security_id":6,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"3M","generated_at":"2026-10-25 04:13:59","ref_price":521.19,"bull_low_pct":21,"bull_high_pct":40.5,"base_low_pct":-16.5,"base_high_pct":16.5,"bear_low_pct":-40.5,"bear_high_pct":-21,"prob_up":0.49,"p10_pct":-31.5,"p25_pct":-16.5,"p50_pct":0,"p75_pct":16.5,"p90_pct":31.5,"expected_range_low":-16.5,"expected_range_high":16.5,"risk_range_low":-40.5,"risk_range_high":16.5,"confidence":55,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 52%, score 48, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"medium","volatility_ann":51.9,"max_hist_drawdown":"-62.2000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":112439,"bull_case":"If a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: P/E 39× leaves no valuation buffer; realised volatility already elevated; momentum is fading. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-12-10 (after close)","Demo synthetic: AMD faces second request in pending acquisition","Demo synthetic: AMD faces second request in pending acquisition","Demo synthetic: AMD faces second request in pending acquisition","Street target implies -1%"],"key_risks":["Elevated realised volatility (50.6%)","Historic drawdown deeper than 62%","Binary event: 2026-12-10"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 51.9% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 823.71 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 83% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":8417,"security_id":6,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"6M","generated_at":"2026-10-25 04:13:59","ref_price":521.19,"bull_low_pct":28.5,"bull_high_pct":57,"base_low_pct":-24,"base_high_pct":22.5,"bear_low_pct":-58.5,"bear_high_pct":-30,"prob_up":0.49,"p10_pct":-45,"p25_pct":-24,"p50_pct":0,"p75_pct":22.5,"p90_pct":43.5,"expected_range_low":-24,"expected_range_high":22.5,"risk_range_low":-58.5,"risk_range_high":22.5,"confidence":55,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 52%, score 48, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"high","volatility_ann":51.9,"max_hist_drawdown":"-62.2000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":112439,"bull_case":"If a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: P/E 39× leaves no valuation buffer; realised volatility already elevated; momentum is fading. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-12-10 (after close)","Demo synthetic: AMD faces second request in pending acquisition","Demo synthetic: AMD faces second request in pending acquisition","Demo synthetic: AMD faces second request in pending acquisition","Street target implies -1%"],"key_risks":["Elevated realised volatility (50.6%)","Historic drawdown deeper than 62%","Binary event: 2026-12-10"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 51.9% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 823.71 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 83% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":8418,"security_id":6,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"12M","generated_at":"2026-10-25 04:13:59","ref_price":521.19,"bull_low_pct":40,"bull_high_pct":80,"base_low_pct":-35,"base_high_pct":32.5,"bear_low_pct":-82.5,"bear_high_pct":-42.5,"prob_up":0.49,"p10_pct":-65,"p25_pct":-35,"p50_pct":0,"p75_pct":32.5,"p90_pct":62.5,"expected_range_low":-35,"expected_range_high":32.5,"risk_range_low":-82.5,"risk_range_high":32.5,"confidence":55,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 52%, score 48, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"very_high","volatility_ann":51.9,"max_hist_drawdown":"-62.2000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":112439,"bull_case":"If a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: P/E 39× leaves no valuation buffer; realised volatility already elevated; momentum is fading. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-12-10 (after close)","Demo synthetic: AMD faces second request in pending acquisition","Demo synthetic: AMD faces second request in pending acquisition","Demo synthetic: AMD faces second request in pending acquisition","Street target implies -1%"],"key_risks":["Elevated realised volatility (50.6%)","Historic drawdown deeper than 62%","Binary event: 2026-12-10"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 51.9% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 823.71 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 83% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"}],"available":true,"as_of":"2026-10-23","mode":"demo","note":"Stored snapshot values; not a real-time feed."}