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Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)","Street target implies 19.3%"],"key_risks":["Historic drawdown deeper than 57%","Binary event: 2026-10-23"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 26.4% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 574.2 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 42% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":5049,"security_id":62,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"1M","generated_at":"2026-10-23 17:35:23","ref_price":495.99,"bull_low_pct":5,"bull_high_pct":8,"base_low_pct":-2,"base_high_pct":4,"bear_low_pct":-7,"bear_high_pct":-3,"prob_up":0.54,"p10_pct":-5,"p25_pct":-2,"p50_pct":1,"p75_pct":4,"p90_pct":7,"expected_range_low":-2,"expected_range_high":4,"risk_range_low":-7,"risk_range_high":4,"confidence":68,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 59, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"low","volatility_ann":26.4,"max_hist_drawdown":"-57.0000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":0,"bull_case":"If RSI mid-range — room to extend, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: P/E 28.4× leaves no valuation buffer. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)","Street target implies 19.3%"],"key_risks":["Historic drawdown deeper than 57%","Binary event: 2026-10-23"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 26.4% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 574.2 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 42% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":5050,"security_id":62,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"3M","generated_at":"2026-10-23 17:35:23","ref_price":495.99,"bull_low_pct":7.5,"bull_high_pct":15,"base_low_pct":-4.5,"base_high_pct":6,"bear_low_pct":-12,"bear_high_pct":-6,"prob_up":0.54,"p10_pct":-9,"p25_pct":-4.5,"p50_pct":1.5,"p75_pct":6,"p90_pct":12,"expected_range_low":-4.5,"expected_range_high":6,"risk_range_low":-12,"risk_range_high":6,"confidence":68,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 59, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"low","volatility_ann":26.4,"max_hist_drawdown":"-57.0000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":0,"bull_case":"If RSI mid-range — room to extend, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: P/E 28.4× leaves no valuation buffer. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)","Street target implies 19.3%"],"key_risks":["Historic drawdown deeper than 57%","Binary event: 2026-10-23"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 26.4% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 574.2 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 42% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":5051,"security_id":62,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"6M","generated_at":"2026-10-23 17:35:23","ref_price":495.99,"bull_low_pct":12,"bull_high_pct":21,"base_low_pct":-6,"base_high_pct":9,"bear_low_pct":-16.5,"bear_high_pct":-7.5,"prob_up":0.54,"p10_pct":-13.5,"p25_pct":-6,"p50_pct":1.5,"p75_pct":9,"p90_pct":16.5,"expected_range_low":-6,"expected_range_high":9,"risk_range_low":-16.5,"risk_range_high":9,"confidence":68,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 59, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"low","volatility_ann":26.4,"max_hist_drawdown":"-57.0000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":0,"bull_case":"If RSI mid-range — room to extend, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: P/E 28.4× leaves no valuation buffer. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)","Street target implies 19.3%"],"key_risks":["Historic drawdown deeper than 57%","Binary event: 2026-10-23"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 26.4% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 574.2 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 42% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":5052,"security_id":62,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"12M","generated_at":"2026-10-23 17:35:23","ref_price":495.99,"bull_low_pct":15,"bull_high_pct":30,"base_low_pct":-7.5,"base_high_pct":12.5,"bear_low_pct":-25,"bear_high_pct":-10,"prob_up":0.54,"p10_pct":-17.5,"p25_pct":-7.5,"p50_pct":2.5,"p75_pct":12.5,"p90_pct":22.5,"expected_range_low":-7.5,"expected_range_high":12.5,"risk_range_low":-25,"risk_range_high":12.5,"confidence":68,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 59, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"medium","volatility_ann":26.4,"max_hist_drawdown":"-57.0000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":0,"bull_case":"If RSI mid-range — room to extend, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: P/E 28.4× leaves no valuation buffer. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)","Street target implies 19.3%"],"key_risks":["Historic drawdown deeper than 57%","Binary event: 2026-10-23"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 26.4% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 574.2 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 42% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"}],"available":true,"as_of":"2026-10-23","mode":"demo","note":"Stored snapshot values; not a real-time feed."}