{"ok":true,"security_id":3,"symbol":"NVDA","snapshot":{"security_id":3,"symbol":"NVDA","asset_type":"equity","sector_code":"technology","industry":null,"exchange_code":null,"currency":"USD","data_mode":"demo","price":"190.180000","prev_close":"189.981700","chg_1d_pct":"0.1040","volume":26760617,"rvol_30":"1.338","avg_volume_30d":20225441,"dollar_volume_avg":"3428312996.4900","mcap":383413748865,"wk52_high":"373.443900","wk52_low":"136.158400","pct_from_52wh":"-49.0700","dist_to_52wh_pct":"-49.0700","rsi14":"58.713","macd":"4.738400","macd_hist":"1.405100","adx14":"13.387","atr_pct":"7.8700","hv20":"59.9800","hv60":"60.0100","vol_regime":"high","bb_pctb":"0.7250","stoch_k":"67.071","above_sma20":1,"above_sma50":1,"above_sma200":0,"sma20":"179.685700","sma50":"181.553900","sma200":"223.005000","vwap":"187.812400","trend":"up","support":"145.582500","resistance":"201.204900","perf_1d":"0.1000","perf_5d":"1.3400","perf_1m":"24.6900","perf_3m":"1.6400","perf_6m":"-7.4300","perf_12m":"3.6500","rel_strength_3m":"-2.7100","rs_rank":null,"mom_persist":null,"bars":760,"beta":"0.7140","mdd_pct":"-60.1600","gap_risk":"1.1130","liq_days":null,"pe_ttm":"36.7450","pe_fwd":"25.5050","peg":"0.8340","ps":"1.9970","pb":"4.5620","ev_ebitda":"25.3410","rev_g":"45.5080","eps_g":"59.1520","gross_margin":"12.0850","op_margin":"6.0450","fcf_margin":"5.2850","roe":"12.4160","roic":"4.7620","debt_equity":"2.0200","net_debt_ebitda":null,"div_yield":"0.0830","payout":"16.4900","buyback_yield":"1.9040","eps_surprise_pct":"-5.6650","rev_surprise_pct":"-3.6380","earnings_days_out":33,"earnings_date":"2026-12-10","consensus_score":"57.250","pct_analyst_buy":null,"pt_upside_pct":null,"sent_score":null,"sent_label":null,"sent_delta":"32.490","inst_ownership":"217.7840","inst_chg_pct":"-66.8300","inst_top_name":"Vanguard Index Group","insider_net_usd":-44272191,"insider_trades_90d":2,"short_pct_float":"11.9910","score_total":"57.92","score_technical":"54.14","score_fundamental":"53.94","score_momentum":"58.15","score_sentiment":"79.70","score_institutional":"25.90","score_risk":"77.48","confidence":"50.00","risk_level":"medium","stance":"neutral","cats":"growth,high_risk,value","catalysts":"Earnings report 2026-12-10 (after close) · Demo synthetic: NVDA cut to neutral on valuation · Demo synthetic: NVDA posts quarterly result inside modelled range · Demo synthetic: NVDA announces platform refresh for enterprise buyers · Street target implies 15.4%","risks":"Elevated realised volatility (60%) · Historic drawdown deeper than 60% · Binary event: 2026-12-10","model_version":"score-1.0.0","priced_at":"2026-10-23 16:00:00","computed_at":"2026-10-25 04:13:59"},"quote":{"security_id":3,"last_price":"190.180000","bid":null,"ask":null,"prev_close":"189.981700","open":"184.447800","day_high":"192.662100","day_low":"180.595100","volume":26760617,"avg_volume_30d":19761660,"change_abs":"0.198300","change_pct":"0.1040","market_state":"closed","quote_ts":"2026-10-23 16:00:00","latency_ms":null,"is_realtime":0,"data_source":"synthetic_demo","data_mode":"demo","updated_at":"2026-10-25 04:13:58","price":"190.180000","as_of":"2026-10-23 16:00:00"},"score":{"id":1400,"security_id":3,"model_id":1,"scored_at":"2026-10-25 04:13:00","total_score":"57.92","technical":"54.14","fundamental":"53.94","momentum":"58.15","sentiment":"79.70","institutional":"25.90","risk":"77.48","components_json":"{\"components\":{\"technical\":{\"score\":54.14,\"label\":\"Neutral\",\"complete\":true,\"factors\":[{\"key\":\"trend_structure\",\"score\":70,\"why\":\"Price vs 20\\/50\\/200-day moving averages: up\",\"w\":1.8},{\"key\":\"trend_strength_adx\",\"score\":29.45,\"why\":\"ADX(14) 13.4 \\u2014 weak\\/rangebound\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"rsi_condition\",\"score\":70.86,\"why\":\"RSI(14) 58.7 \\u2014 constructive zone\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"macd_signal\",\"score\":72,\"why\":\"MACD(12,26,9) above, histogram 1.405\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"volume_confirmation\",\"score\":66.22,\"why\":\"Relative volume 1.34\\u00d7 its own 30-day average\",\"w\":0.8},{\"key\":\"52w_position\",\"score\":24.11,\"why\":\"-49.1% from its 52-week high\",\"w\":1.4},{\"key\":\"volatility_compression\",\"score\":45.08,\"why\":\"Bollinger width 26%\",\"w\":0.7},{\"key\":\"candlestick_patterns\",\"score\":50,\"why\":\"No reversal\\/breakout pattern at the latest close\",\"w\":0.7},{\"key\":\"intraday_position\",\"score\":62,\"why\":\"Holding above session VWAP\",\"w\":0.4}]},\"fundamental\":{\"score\":53.94,\"label\":\"Available\",\"complete\":true,\"factors\":[{\"key\":\"gross_margin\",\"score\":27.78,\"why\":\"Gross margin 12.1%\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"operating_margin\",\"score\":44.09,\"why\":\"Operating margin 6%\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"free_cash_flow\",\"score\":54.53,\"why\":\"FCF margin 5.3%\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"return_on_equity\",\"score\":57.62,\"why\":\"ROE 12.4%\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"return_on_invested_capital\",\"score\":41.19,\"why\":\"ROIC 4.8%\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"leverage\",\"score\":34.8,\"why\":\"Debt\\/Equity 2.02 \\u2014 elevated\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"coverage\",\"score\":82,\"why\":\"Interest coverage 22\\u00d7\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"valuation_pe\",\"score\":59.58,\"why\":\"P\\/E 36.7\\u00d7 vs sector median 37.5\\u00d7 (in line)\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"peg\",\"score\":80.64,\"why\":\"PEG 0.83\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"valuation_sales\",\"score\":85,\"why\":\"P\\/S 2\\u00d7 vs sector median 6.9\\u00d7\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"valuation_book\",\"score\":41.67,\"why\":\"P\\/B 4.6\\u00d7\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"valuation_ebitda\",\"score\":31.4,\"why\":\"EV\\/EBITDA 25.3\\u00d7\",\"w\":1}]},\"momentum\":{\"score\":58.15,\"label\":\"Neutral\",\"complete\":true,\"factors\":[{\"key\":\"multi_horizon_performance\",\"score\":56.94,\"why\":\"1M +24.7% \\u00b7 3M +1.6% \\u00b7 6M -7.4% \\u00b7 12M +3.7%\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"relative_strength_vs_index\",\"score\":45.5,\"why\":\"3-month return minus index -2.7%\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"volume_acceleration\",\"score\":51.39,\"why\":\"Today +0.1% on 1.3\\u00d7 volume\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"momentum_persistence\",\"score\":78.75,\"why\":\"3 of 4 measured horizons are positive\",\"w\":1}]},\"sentiment\":{\"score\":79.7,\"label\":\"Neutral\",\"complete\":true,\"factors\":[{\"key\":\"news_sentiment_index\",\"score\":57.25,\"why\":\"Aggregate news sentiment 14.5 (\\u2212100 bearish \\u2026 +100 bullish) from 35 scored items\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"sentiment_delta\",\"score\":95,\"why\":\"30-day sentiment change 32.5 pts\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"analyst_consensus\",\"score\":73.2,\"why\":\"Analyst consensus score 1.98 (1=Strong Buy, 5=Sell) across 5 ratings\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"analyst_distribution\",\"score\":100,\"why\":\"114% Buy\\/Strong Buy \\u00b7 0% Hold \\u00b7 0% Sell\\/Short\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"price_target_gap\",\"score\":75.46,\"why\":\"Average target implies +15.4% from the last close\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"estimate_revisions\",\"score\":92,\"why\":\"Net EPS estimate revisions (90d): 33\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"recent_headline_tone\",\"score\":65,\"why\":\"Last items: 2 positive \\/ 1 negative headlines\",\"w\":1}]},\"institutional\":{\"score\":25.9,\"label\":\"Available\",\"complete\":true,\"factors\":[{\"key\":\"institutional_flows\",\"score\":22,\"why\":\"Reported 13F-style positioning change -66.8% vs prior quarter2026-09-01\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"ownership_crowding\",\"score\":26,\"why\":\"Institutions hold ~217.8% of float (crowding risk rises above ~78%)\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"insider_activity\",\"score\":22,\"why\":\"Net insider sales \\u2248 $44.3M over 2 filings\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"short_interest\",\"score\":33.61,\"why\":\"Short interest 12% of float, days-to-cover 28.1\",\"w\":1}]},\"risk\":{\"score\":77.48,\"label\":\"Medium risk\",\"complete\":true,\"factors\":[{\"key\":\"volatility\",\"score\":39.81,\"why\":\"20-day realised volatility 60% annualised\",\"w\":1.5},{\"key\":\"beta\",\"score\":92.74,\"why\":\"Beta 0.71 vs the reference index\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"drawdown_history\",\"score\":52.9,\"why\":\"Max drawdown in stored history -60.2%\",\"w\":1.2},{\"key\":\"liquidity\",\"score\":96,\"why\":\"Average $3428.3M traded per session\",\"w\":1.3},{\"key\":\"gap_risk\",\"score\":94.21,\"why\":\"Median overnight gap 1.11% \\u2014 position sizing must survive opens\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"event_risk_earnings\",\"score\":82,\"why\":\"No earnings inside the next 3 weeks\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"sector_risk\",\"score\":76.18,\"why\":\"Sector average volatility 32%\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"market_risk\",\"score\":84.63,\"why\":\"Benchmark volatility 20.1% \\u00b7 regime: Sideways \\u00b7 normal vol \\u00b7 risk-off\",\"w\":1},{\"key\":\"correlation\",\"score\":97,\"why\":\"Correlation to benchmark 0.63-year rolling: 0.25\",\"w\":1}]}},\"weights\":{\"technical\":25,\"fundamental\":25,\"momentum\":15,\"sentiment\":10,\"institutional\":10,\"risk\":15},\"confidence\":50,\"confidence_basis\":\"760 bars \\u00b7 data 31h old \\u00b7 components covered 100%% \\u00b7 risk drag 89\",\"coverage\":100}","factors_json":"{\"positive\":[{\"component\":\"sentiment\",\"key\":\"analyst_distribution\",\"score\":100,\"why\":\"114% Buy\\/Strong Buy \\u00b7 0% Hold \\u00b7 0% Sell\\/Short\"},{\"component\":\"risk\",\"key\":\"correlation\",\"score\":97,\"why\":\"Correlation to benchmark 0.63-year rolling: 0.25\"},{\"component\":\"risk\",\"key\":\"liquidity\",\"score\":96,\"why\":\"Average $3428.3M traded per session\"},{\"component\":\"sentiment\",\"key\":\"sentiment_delta\",\"score\":95,\"why\":\"30-day sentiment change 32.5 pts\"},{\"component\":\"risk\",\"key\":\"gap_risk\",\"score\":94.21,\"why\":\"Median overnight gap 1.11% \\u2014 position sizing must survive opens\"},{\"component\":\"risk\",\"key\":\"beta\",\"score\":92.74,\"why\":\"Beta 0.71 vs the reference index\"}],\"negative\":[{\"component\":\"institutional\",\"key\":\"institutional_flows\",\"score\":22,\"why\":\"Reported 13F-style positioning change -66.8% vs prior quarter2026-09-01\"},{\"component\":\"institutional\",\"key\":\"insider_activity\",\"score\":22,\"why\":\"Net insider sales \\u2248 $44.3M over 2 filings\"},{\"component\":\"technical\",\"key\":\"52w_position\",\"score\":24.11,\"why\":\"-49.1% from its 52-week high\"},{\"component\":\"institutional\",\"key\":\"ownership_crowding\",\"score\":26,\"why\":\"Institutions hold ~217.8% of float (crowding risk rises above ~78%)\"},{\"component\":\"fundamental\",\"key\":\"gross_margin\",\"score\":27.78,\"why\":\"Gross margin 12.1%\"},{\"component\":\"technical\",\"key\":\"trend_strength_adx\",\"score\":29.45,\"why\":\"ADX(14) 13.4 \\u2014 weak\\/rangebound\"}]}","inputs_snapshot":"{\"bars\":760,\"price\":\"190.180000\",\"trend\":\"up\",\"pe\":\"36.7450\",\"sent\":14.5,\"sector\":\"technology\"}","data_mode":"demo","stance":"neutral","risk_level":"medium","confidence":"50.00","model_version":"score-1.0.0","computed_at":"2026-10-25 04:13:59","catalysts":"Earnings report 2026-12-10 (after close) · Demo synthetic: NVDA cut to neutral on valuation · Demo synthetic: NVDA posts quarterly result inside modelled range · Demo synthetic: NVDA announces platform refresh for enterprise buyers · Street target implies 15.4%","risks":"Elevated realised volatility (60%) · Historic drawdown deeper than 60% · Binary event: 2026-12-10","sent_score":null,"sent_label":null,"snap_total":"57.92","score_total":57.92,"components":{"technical":25,"fundamental":25,"momentum":15,"sentiment":10,"institutional":10,"risk":15},"component_detail":{"technical":{"score":54.14,"label":"Neutral","complete":true,"factors":[{"key":"trend_structure","score":70,"why":"Price vs 20/50/200-day moving averages: up","w":1.8},{"key":"trend_strength_adx","score":29.45,"why":"ADX(14) 13.4 — weak/rangebound","w":1},{"key":"rsi_condition","score":70.86,"why":"RSI(14) 58.7 — constructive zone","w":1},{"key":"macd_signal","score":72,"why":"MACD(12,26,9) above, histogram 1.405","w":1},{"key":"volume_confirmation","score":66.22,"why":"Relative volume 1.34× its own 30-day average","w":0.8},{"key":"52w_position","score":24.11,"why":"-49.1% from its 52-week high","w":1.4},{"key":"volatility_compression","score":45.08,"why":"Bollinger width 26%","w":0.7},{"key":"candlestick_patterns","score":50,"why":"No reversal/breakout pattern at the latest close","w":0.7},{"key":"intraday_position","score":62,"why":"Holding above session VWAP","w":0.4}]},"fundamental":{"score":53.94,"label":"Available","complete":true,"factors":[{"key":"gross_margin","score":27.78,"why":"Gross margin 12.1%","w":1},{"key":"operating_margin","score":44.09,"why":"Operating margin 6%","w":1},{"key":"free_cash_flow","score":54.53,"why":"FCF margin 5.3%","w":1},{"key":"return_on_equity","score":57.62,"why":"ROE 12.4%","w":1},{"key":"return_on_invested_capital","score":41.19,"why":"ROIC 4.8%","w":1},{"key":"leverage","score":34.8,"why":"Debt/Equity 2.02 — elevated","w":1},{"key":"coverage","score":82,"why":"Interest coverage 22×","w":1},{"key":"valuation_pe","score":59.58,"why":"P/E 36.7× vs sector median 37.5× (in line)","w":1},{"key":"peg","score":80.64,"why":"PEG 0.83","w":1},{"key":"valuation_sales","score":85,"why":"P/S 2× vs sector median 6.9×","w":1},{"key":"valuation_book","score":41.67,"why":"P/B 4.6×","w":1},{"key":"valuation_ebitda","score":31.4,"why":"EV/EBITDA 25.3×","w":1}]},"momentum":{"score":58.15,"label":"Neutral","complete":true,"factors":[{"key":"multi_horizon_performance","score":56.94,"why":"1M +24.7% · 3M +1.6% · 6M -7.4% · 12M +3.7%","w":1},{"key":"relative_strength_vs_index","score":45.5,"why":"3-month return minus index -2.7%","w":1},{"key":"volume_acceleration","score":51.39,"why":"Today +0.1% on 1.3× volume","w":1},{"key":"momentum_persistence","score":78.75,"why":"3 of 4 measured horizons are positive","w":1}]},"sentiment":{"score":79.7,"label":"Neutral","complete":true,"factors":[{"key":"news_sentiment_index","score":57.25,"why":"Aggregate news sentiment 14.5 (−100 bearish … +100 bullish) from 35 scored items","w":1},{"key":"sentiment_delta","score":95,"why":"30-day sentiment change 32.5 pts","w":1},{"key":"analyst_consensus","score":73.2,"why":"Analyst consensus score 1.98 (1=Strong Buy, 5=Sell) across 5 ratings","w":1},{"key":"analyst_distribution","score":100,"why":"114% Buy/Strong Buy · 0% Hold · 0% Sell/Short","w":1},{"key":"price_target_gap","score":75.46,"why":"Average target implies +15.4% from the last close","w":1},{"key":"estimate_revisions","score":92,"why":"Net EPS estimate revisions (90d): 33","w":1},{"key":"recent_headline_tone","score":65,"why":"Last items: 2 positive / 1 negative headlines","w":1}]},"institutional":{"score":25.9,"label":"Available","complete":true,"factors":[{"key":"institutional_flows","score":22,"why":"Reported 13F-style positioning change -66.8% vs prior quarter2026-09-01","w":1},{"key":"ownership_crowding","score":26,"why":"Institutions hold ~217.8% of float (crowding risk rises above ~78%)","w":1},{"key":"insider_activity","score":22,"why":"Net insider sales ≈ $44.3M over 2 filings","w":1},{"key":"short_interest","score":33.61,"why":"Short interest 12% of float, days-to-cover 28.1","w":1}]},"risk":{"score":77.48,"label":"Medium risk","complete":true,"factors":[{"key":"volatility","score":39.81,"why":"20-day realised volatility 60% annualised","w":1.5},{"key":"beta","score":92.74,"why":"Beta 0.71 vs the reference index","w":1},{"key":"drawdown_history","score":52.9,"why":"Max drawdown in stored history -60.2%","w":1.2},{"key":"liquidity","score":96,"why":"Average $3428.3M traded per session","w":1.3},{"key":"gap_risk","score":94.21,"why":"Median overnight gap 1.11% — position sizing must survive opens","w":1},{"key":"event_risk_earnings","score":82,"why":"No earnings inside the next 3 weeks","w":1},{"key":"sector_risk","score":76.18,"why":"Sector average volatility 32%","w":1},{"key":"market_risk","score":84.63,"why":"Benchmark volatility 20.1% · regime: Sideways · normal vol · risk-off","w":1},{"key":"correlation","score":97,"why":"Correlation to benchmark 0.63-year rolling: 0.25","w":1}]}},"coverage":100,"confidence_basis":"760 bars · data 31h old · components covered 100%% · risk drag 89","factors":[{"component":"sentiment","key":"analyst_distribution","label":"Analyst Distribution","score":100,"why":"114% Buy/Strong Buy · 0% Hold · 0% Sell/Short","w":1,"direction":"positive"},{"component":"risk","key":"correlation","label":"Correlation","score":97,"why":"Correlation to benchmark 0.63-year rolling: 0.25","w":1,"direction":"positive"},{"component":"risk","key":"liquidity","label":"Liquidity","score":96,"why":"Average $3428.3M traded per session","w":1.3,"direction":"positive"},{"component":"sentiment","key":"sentiment_delta","label":"Sentiment Delta","score":95,"why":"30-day sentiment change 32.5 pts","w":1,"direction":"positive"},{"component":"risk","key":"gap_risk","label":"Gap Risk","score":94.21,"why":"Median overnight gap 1.11% — position sizing must survive opens","w":1,"direction":"positive"},{"component":"risk","key":"beta","label":"Beta","score":92.74,"why":"Beta 0.71 vs the reference index","w":1,"direction":"positive"},{"component":"sentiment","key":"estimate_revisions","label":"Estimate Revisions","score":92,"why":"Net EPS estimate revisions (90d): 33","w":1,"direction":"positive"},{"component":"fundamental","key":"valuation_sales","label":"Valuation Sales","score":85,"why":"P/S 2× vs sector median 6.9×","w":1,"direction":"positive"},{"component":"risk","key":"market_risk","label":"Market Risk","score":84.63,"why":"Benchmark volatility 20.1% · regime: Sideways · normal vol · risk-off","w":1,"direction":"positive"},{"component":"fundamental","key":"coverage","label":"Coverage","score":82,"why":"Interest coverage 22×","w":1,"direction":"positive"},{"component":"risk","key":"event_risk_earnings","label":"Event Risk Earnings","score":82,"why":"No earnings inside the next 3 weeks","w":1,"direction":"positive"},{"component":"fundamental","key":"peg","label":"Peg","score":80.64,"why":"PEG 0.83","w":1,"direction":"positive"},{"component":"momentum","key":"momentum_persistence","label":"Momentum Persistence","score":78.75,"why":"3 of 4 measured horizons are positive","w":1,"direction":"positive"},{"component":"institutional","key":"institutional_flows","label":"Institutional Flows","score":22,"why":"Reported 13F-style positioning change -66.8% vs prior quarter2026-09-01","w":1,"direction":"negative"}],"factors_positive":[{"component":"sentiment","key":"analyst_distribution","score":100,"why":"114% Buy/Strong Buy · 0% Hold · 0% Sell/Short"},{"component":"risk","key":"correlation","score":97,"why":"Correlation to benchmark 0.63-year rolling: 0.25"},{"component":"risk","key":"liquidity","score":96,"why":"Average $3428.3M traded per session"},{"component":"sentiment","key":"sentiment_delta","score":95,"why":"30-day sentiment change 32.5 pts"},{"component":"risk","key":"gap_risk","score":94.21,"why":"Median overnight gap 1.11% — position sizing must survive opens"},{"component":"risk","key":"beta","score":92.74,"why":"Beta 0.71 vs the reference index"}],"factors_negative":[{"component":"institutional","key":"institutional_flows","score":22,"why":"Reported 13F-style positioning change -66.8% vs prior quarter2026-09-01"},{"component":"institutional","key":"insider_activity","score":22,"why":"Net insider sales ≈ $44.3M over 2 filings"},{"component":"technical","key":"52w_position","score":24.11,"why":"-49.1% from its 52-week high"},{"component":"institutional","key":"ownership_crowding","score":26,"why":"Institutions hold ~217.8% of float (crowding risk rises above ~78%)"},{"component":"fundamental","key":"gross_margin","score":27.78,"why":"Gross margin 12.1%"},{"component":"technical","key":"trend_strength_adx","score":29.45,"why":"ADX(14) 13.4 — weak/rangebound"}],"inputs":{"bars":760,"price":"190.180000","trend":"up","pe":"36.7450","sent":14.5,"sector":"technology"}},"predictions":[{"id":8395,"security_id":3,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"1D","generated_at":"2026-10-25 04:13:59","ref_price":190.18,"bull_low_pct":2.5,"bull_high_pct":4.5,"base_low_pct":-1.5,"base_high_pct":2,"bear_low_pct":-4,"bear_high_pct":-2,"prob_up":0.53,"p10_pct":-3,"p25_pct":-1.5,"p50_pct":0.5,"p75_pct":2,"p90_pct":3.5,"expected_range_low":-1.5,"expected_range_high":2,"risk_range_low":-4,"risk_range_high":2,"confidence":55,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 60%, score 58, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"low","volatility_ann":60,"max_hist_drawdown":"-60.2000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":112439,"bull_case":"If RSI mid-range — room to extend, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: P/E 36.7× leaves no valuation buffer; realised volatility already elevated. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-12-10 (after close)","Demo synthetic: NVDA cut to neutral on valuation","Demo synthetic: NVDA posts quarterly result inside modelled range","Demo synthetic: NVDA announces platform refresh for enterprise buyers","Street target implies 15.4%"],"key_risks":["Elevated realised volatility (60%)","Historic drawdown deeper than 60%","Binary event: 2026-12-10"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 60% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 223.01 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 96% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":8396,"security_id":3,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"5D","generated_at":"2026-10-25 04:13:59","ref_price":190.18,"bull_low_pct":6,"bull_high_pct":11,"base_low_pct":-3,"base_high_pct":5,"bear_low_pct":-9,"bear_high_pct":-4,"prob_up":0.53,"p10_pct":-7,"p25_pct":-3,"p50_pct":1,"p75_pct":5,"p90_pct":8,"expected_range_low":-3,"expected_range_high":5,"risk_range_low":-9,"risk_range_high":5,"confidence":55,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 60%, score 58, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"low","volatility_ann":60,"max_hist_drawdown":"-60.2000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":112439,"bull_case":"If RSI mid-range — room to extend, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: P/E 36.7× leaves no valuation buffer; realised volatility already elevated. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-12-10 (after close)","Demo synthetic: NVDA cut to neutral on valuation","Demo synthetic: NVDA posts quarterly result inside modelled range","Demo synthetic: NVDA announces platform refresh for enterprise buyers","Street target implies 15.4%"],"key_risks":["Elevated realised volatility (60%)","Historic drawdown deeper than 60%","Binary event: 2026-12-10"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 60% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 223.01 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 96% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":8397,"security_id":3,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"1M","generated_at":"2026-10-25 04:13:59","ref_price":190.18,"bull_low_pct":12,"bull_high_pct":22,"base_low_pct":-7,"base_high_pct":10,"bear_low_pct":-19,"bear_high_pct":-9,"prob_up":0.53,"p10_pct":-15,"p25_pct":-7,"p50_pct":1,"p75_pct":10,"p90_pct":17,"expected_range_low":-7,"expected_range_high":10,"risk_range_low":-19,"risk_range_high":10,"confidence":55,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 60%, score 58, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"low","volatility_ann":60,"max_hist_drawdown":"-60.2000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":112439,"bull_case":"If RSI mid-range — room to extend, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: P/E 36.7× leaves no valuation buffer; realised volatility already elevated. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-12-10 (after close)","Demo synthetic: NVDA cut to neutral on valuation","Demo synthetic: NVDA posts quarterly result inside modelled range","Demo synthetic: NVDA announces platform refresh for enterprise buyers","Street target implies 15.4%"],"key_risks":["Elevated realised volatility (60%)","Historic drawdown deeper than 60%","Binary event: 2026-12-10"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 60% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 223.01 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 96% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":8398,"security_id":3,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"3M","generated_at":"2026-10-25 04:13:59","ref_price":190.18,"bull_low_pct":19.5,"bull_high_pct":37.5,"base_low_pct":-12,"base_high_pct":16.5,"bear_low_pct":-33,"bear_high_pct":-16.5,"prob_up":0.53,"p10_pct":-25.5,"p25_pct":-12,"p50_pct":1.5,"p75_pct":16.5,"p90_pct":30,"expected_range_low":-12,"expected_range_high":16.5,"risk_range_low":-33,"risk_range_high":16.5,"confidence":55,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 60%, score 58, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"medium","volatility_ann":60,"max_hist_drawdown":"-60.2000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":112439,"bull_case":"If RSI mid-range — room to extend, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: P/E 36.7× leaves no valuation buffer; realised volatility already elevated. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-12-10 (after close)","Demo synthetic: NVDA cut to neutral on valuation","Demo synthetic: NVDA posts quarterly result inside modelled range","Demo synthetic: NVDA announces platform refresh for enterprise buyers","Street target implies 15.4%"],"key_risks":["Elevated realised volatility (60%)","Historic drawdown deeper than 60%","Binary event: 2026-12-10"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 60% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 223.01 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 96% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":8399,"security_id":3,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"6M","generated_at":"2026-10-25 04:13:59","ref_price":190.18,"bull_low_pct":28.5,"bull_high_pct":52.5,"base_low_pct":-18,"base_high_pct":24,"bear_low_pct":-46.5,"bear_high_pct":-22.5,"prob_up":0.53,"p10_pct":-36,"p25_pct":-18,"p50_pct":3,"p75_pct":24,"p90_pct":42,"expected_range_low":-18,"expected_range_high":24,"risk_range_low":-46.5,"risk_range_high":24,"confidence":55,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 60%, score 58, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"high","volatility_ann":60,"max_hist_drawdown":"-60.2000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":112439,"bull_case":"If RSI mid-range — room to extend, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: P/E 36.7× leaves no valuation buffer; realised volatility already elevated. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-12-10 (after close)","Demo synthetic: NVDA cut to neutral on valuation","Demo synthetic: NVDA posts quarterly result inside modelled range","Demo synthetic: NVDA announces platform refresh for enterprise buyers","Street target implies 15.4%"],"key_risks":["Elevated realised volatility (60%)","Historic drawdown deeper than 60%","Binary event: 2026-12-10"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 60% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 223.01 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 96% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":8400,"security_id":3,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"12M","generated_at":"2026-10-25 04:13:59","ref_price":190.18,"bull_low_pct":40,"bull_high_pct":75,"base_low_pct":-25,"base_high_pct":32.5,"bear_low_pct":-65,"bear_high_pct":-32.5,"prob_up":0.53,"p10_pct":-50,"p25_pct":-25,"p50_pct":5,"p75_pct":32.5,"p90_pct":60,"expected_range_low":-25,"expected_range_high":32.5,"risk_range_low":-65,"risk_range_high":32.5,"confidence":55,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 60%, score 58, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"very_high","volatility_ann":60,"max_hist_drawdown":"-60.2000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":112439,"bull_case":"If RSI mid-range — room to extend, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: P/E 36.7× leaves no valuation buffer; realised volatility already elevated. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-12-10 (after close)","Demo synthetic: NVDA cut to neutral on valuation","Demo synthetic: NVDA posts quarterly result inside modelled range","Demo synthetic: NVDA announces platform refresh for enterprise buyers","Street target implies 15.4%"],"key_risks":["Elevated realised volatility (60%)","Historic drawdown deeper than 60%","Binary event: 2026-12-10"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 60% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 223.01 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 96% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"}],"available":true,"as_of":"2026-10-23","mode":"demo","note":"Stored snapshot values; not a real-time feed."}