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Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)","Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, ORCL beta repriced","Street target implies 12.5%"],"key_risks":["Historic drawdown deeper than 57%","Binary event: 2026-10-23"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 23% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 660.58 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 37% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":4737,"security_id":10,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"1M","generated_at":"2026-10-23 17:35:22","ref_price":584.14,"bull_low_pct":4,"bull_high_pct":7,"base_low_pct":-2,"base_high_pct":3,"bear_low_pct":-5,"bear_high_pct":-2,"prob_up":0.55,"p10_pct":-4,"p25_pct":-2,"p50_pct":1,"p75_pct":3,"p90_pct":5,"expected_range_low":-2,"expected_range_high":3,"risk_range_low":-5,"risk_range_high":3,"confidence":68,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 23%, score 60, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"low","volatility_ann":23,"max_hist_drawdown":"-57.3000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":0,"bull_case":"If RSI mid-range — room to extend, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: P/E 30× leaves no valuation buffer. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)","Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, ORCL beta repriced","Street target implies 12.5%"],"key_risks":["Historic drawdown deeper than 57%","Binary event: 2026-10-23"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 23% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 660.58 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 37% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":4738,"security_id":10,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"3M","generated_at":"2026-10-23 17:35:22","ref_price":584.14,"bull_low_pct":6,"bull_high_pct":12,"base_low_pct":-3,"base_high_pct":6,"bear_low_pct":-9,"bear_high_pct":-4.5,"prob_up":0.55,"p10_pct":-7.5,"p25_pct":-3,"p50_pct":1.5,"p75_pct":6,"p90_pct":9,"expected_range_low":-3,"expected_range_high":6,"risk_range_low":-9,"risk_range_high":6,"confidence":68,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 23%, score 60, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"low","volatility_ann":23,"max_hist_drawdown":"-57.3000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":0,"bull_case":"If RSI mid-range — room to extend, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: P/E 30× leaves no valuation buffer. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)","Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, ORCL beta repriced","Street target implies 12.5%"],"key_risks":["Historic drawdown deeper than 57%","Binary event: 2026-10-23"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 23% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 660.58 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 37% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":4739,"security_id":10,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"6M","generated_at":"2026-10-23 17:35:22","ref_price":584.14,"bull_low_pct":9,"bull_high_pct":16.5,"base_low_pct":-4.5,"base_high_pct":7.5,"bear_low_pct":-13.5,"bear_high_pct":-6,"prob_up":0.55,"p10_pct":-10.5,"p25_pct":-4.5,"p50_pct":1.5,"p75_pct":7.5,"p90_pct":13.5,"expected_range_low":-4.5,"expected_range_high":7.5,"risk_range_low":-13.5,"risk_range_high":7.5,"confidence":68,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 23%, score 60, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"low","volatility_ann":23,"max_hist_drawdown":"-57.3000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":0,"bull_case":"If RSI mid-range — room to extend, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: P/E 30× leaves no valuation buffer. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)","Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, ORCL beta repriced","Street target implies 12.5%"],"key_risks":["Historic drawdown deeper than 57%","Binary event: 2026-10-23"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 23% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 660.58 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 37% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":4740,"security_id":10,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"12M","generated_at":"2026-10-23 17:35:22","ref_price":584.14,"bull_low_pct":12.5,"bull_high_pct":22.5,"base_low_pct":-5,"base_high_pct":10,"bear_low_pct":-17.5,"bear_high_pct":-7.5,"prob_up":0.55,"p10_pct":-15,"p25_pct":-5,"p50_pct":2.5,"p75_pct":10,"p90_pct":17.5,"expected_range_low":-5,"expected_range_high":10,"risk_range_low":-17.5,"risk_range_high":10,"confidence":68,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 23%, score 60, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"low","volatility_ann":23,"max_hist_drawdown":"-57.3000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":0,"bull_case":"If RSI mid-range — room to extend, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: P/E 30× leaves no valuation buffer. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)","Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, ORCL beta repriced","Street target implies 12.5%"],"key_risks":["Historic drawdown deeper than 57%","Binary event: 2026-10-23"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 23% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 660.58 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 37% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"}],"available":true,"as_of":"2026-10-23","mode":"demo","note":"Stored snapshot values; not a real-time feed."}