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Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)","Demo synthetic: V completes share buyback tranche","Demo synthetic: V completes share buyback tranche","Demo synthetic: V completes share buyback tranche","Street target implies 8.4%"],"key_risks":["Historic drawdown deeper than 55%","Binary event: 2026-10-23"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 30.1% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 177.12 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 48% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":4833,"security_id":26,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"1M","generated_at":"2026-10-23 17:35:22","ref_price":140.2,"bull_low_pct":6,"bull_high_pct":11,"base_low_pct":-4,"base_high_pct":5,"bear_low_pct":-10,"bear_high_pct":-5,"prob_up":0.53,"p10_pct":-7,"p25_pct":-4,"p50_pct":1,"p75_pct":5,"p90_pct":9,"expected_range_low":-4,"expected_range_high":5,"risk_range_low":-10,"risk_range_high":5,"confidence":67,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 30%, score 58, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"low","volatility_ann":30.1,"max_hist_drawdown":"-54.8000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":0,"bull_case":"If RSI mid-range — room to extend, fundamentals scoring above the coverage median, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: a market-wide risk-off move alone can carry the 5–20th percentile band. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)","Demo synthetic: V completes share buyback tranche","Demo synthetic: V completes share buyback tranche","Demo synthetic: V completes share buyback tranche","Street target implies 8.4%"],"key_risks":["Historic drawdown deeper than 55%","Binary event: 2026-10-23"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 30.1% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 177.12 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 48% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":4834,"security_id":26,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"3M","generated_at":"2026-10-23 17:35:22","ref_price":140.2,"bull_low_pct":10.5,"bull_high_pct":19.5,"base_low_pct":-6,"base_high_pct":9,"bear_low_pct":-16.5,"bear_high_pct":-7.5,"prob_up":0.53,"p10_pct":-12,"p25_pct":-6,"p50_pct":1.5,"p75_pct":9,"p90_pct":15,"expected_range_low":-6,"expected_range_high":9,"risk_range_low":-16.5,"risk_range_high":9,"confidence":67,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 30%, score 58, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"low","volatility_ann":30.1,"max_hist_drawdown":"-54.8000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":0,"bull_case":"If RSI mid-range — room to extend, fundamentals scoring above the coverage median, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: a market-wide risk-off move alone can carry the 5–20th percentile band. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)","Demo synthetic: V completes share buyback tranche","Demo synthetic: V completes share buyback tranche","Demo synthetic: V completes share buyback tranche","Street target implies 8.4%"],"key_risks":["Historic drawdown deeper than 55%","Binary event: 2026-10-23"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 30.1% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 177.12 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 48% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":4835,"security_id":26,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"6M","generated_at":"2026-10-23 17:35:22","ref_price":140.2,"bull_low_pct":15,"bull_high_pct":27,"base_low_pct":-9,"base_high_pct":12,"bear_low_pct":-24,"bear_high_pct":-10.5,"prob_up":0.53,"p10_pct":-18,"p25_pct":-9,"p50_pct":1.5,"p75_pct":12,"p90_pct":21,"expected_range_low":-9,"expected_range_high":12,"risk_range_low":-24,"risk_range_high":12,"confidence":67,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 30%, score 58, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"medium","volatility_ann":30.1,"max_hist_drawdown":"-54.8000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":0,"bull_case":"If RSI mid-range — room to extend, fundamentals scoring above the coverage median, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: a market-wide risk-off move alone can carry the 5–20th percentile band. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)","Demo synthetic: V completes share buyback tranche","Demo synthetic: V completes share buyback tranche","Demo synthetic: V completes share buyback tranche","Street target implies 8.4%"],"key_risks":["Historic drawdown deeper than 55%","Binary event: 2026-10-23"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 30.1% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 177.12 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 48% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"},{"id":4836,"security_id":26,"model_id":2,"horizon_code":"12M","generated_at":"2026-10-23 17:35:22","ref_price":140.2,"bull_low_pct":20,"bull_high_pct":37.5,"base_low_pct":-12.5,"base_high_pct":17.5,"bear_low_pct":-32.5,"bear_high_pct":-15,"prob_up":0.53,"p10_pct":-25,"p25_pct":-12.5,"p50_pct":2.5,"p75_pct":17.5,"p90_pct":30,"expected_range_low":-12.5,"expected_range_high":17.5,"risk_range_low":-32.5,"risk_range_high":17.5,"confidence":67,"confidence_basis":"760 bars, blended vol 30%, score 58, coverage 100%%","risk_level":"medium","volatility_ann":30.1,"max_hist_drawdown":"-54.8000","sample_size":760,"data_freshness_secs":0,"bull_case":"If RSI mid-range — room to extend, fundamentals scoring above the coverage median, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.","base_case":"mildly positive","bear_case":"Downside triggers: a market-wide risk-off move alone can carry the 5–20th percentile band. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.","catalysts":["Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)","Demo synthetic: V completes share buyback tranche","Demo synthetic: V completes share buyback tranche","Demo synthetic: V completes share buyback tranche","Street target implies 8.4%"],"key_risks":["Historic drawdown deeper than 55%","Binary event: 2026-10-23"],"assumptions":["Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 30.1% annualised).","The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).","Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.","Index regime assumed: sideways.","Close below the 177.12 support band or the strategy stop.","Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.","Volatility expanding beyond 48% annualised invalidates position sizing.","Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change)."],"invalidation":null,"regime_at_time":"sideways","status":"active","invalidated_at":null,"invalidated_reason":null,"data_mode":"demo"}],"available":true,"as_of":"2026-10-23","mode":"demo","note":"Stored snapshot values; not a real-time feed."}