Bitcoin / US Dollar

BTCUSD CONSTRUCTIVE MEDIUM CRYPTO DEMO

$68,500.00 +0.37% 1-day change from the stored snapshot · 27 hours ago

DEMO DATASET last stored bar 2026-10-23 · scores computed 2026-10-23 17:35:23 · every figure below is read from these rows, nothing is computed in the browser

Price · stored daily bars

126 bars ending 2026-10-23 · demo data

Indicators are computed from the same stored closes the score used; the forecast fan is drawn from qm_predictions, not from a live model call. how this is drawn

Open$69,955.93

Day range$70,585.40 / $67,148.30

Prev close$68,248.88

Volume12.6B

RVOL 30d1.66×session volume over stored 30-day average

Avg $ volume$604T

Market capnot stored

HV2048.5% ann.

Beta-0.04

RSI(14)38.1

ATR %10.28%

Max drawdown-48.5%

52-week rangefrom $37,930.19 to $107,423.99

52-week low / high$37,930.19 / $107,423.99

From 52w high-36.2%

Liquiditynot storeddays of average volume to fill 1% of float

Forecast

Stored scenarios from the last pipeline run. The model that wrote them is named on each row; no forecast is generated when you look at this page.

Horizon	Ref	Bull high	Base range	Bear low	P10 → P90	P(up)	Confidence	Risk
1D 2026-10-23 17:35:23	68,500.00	70,897.50 +3.5%	67,815.00 → 69,527.50 -1.0% … +1.5%	66,787.50 -2.5%	67,130.00 → 70,212.50	55.0%	65 760 bars, blended vol 53%, score 60, coverage 84%%	LOW HV 52.8% ann. · 760 bars
5D 2026-10-23 17:35:23	68,500.00	73,295.00 +7.0%	67,130.00 → 70,555.00 -2.0% … +3.0%	64,390.00 -6.0%	65,075.00 → 72,610.00	55.0%	65 760 bars, blended vol 53%, score 60, coverage 84%%	LOW HV 52.8% ann. · 760 bars
1M 2026-10-23 17:35:23	68,500.00	78,775.00 +15.0%	65,760.00 → 73,295.00 -4.0% … +7.0%	60,280.00 -12.0%	62,335.00 → 76,720.00	55.0%	65 760 bars, blended vol 53%, score 60, coverage 84%%	LOW HV 52.8% ann. · 760 bars
3M 2026-10-23 17:35:23	68,500.00	86,995.00 +27.0%	63,362.50 → 76,720.00 -7.5% … +12.0%	54,115.00 -21.0%	57,197.50 → 82,885.00	55.0%	65 760 bars, blended vol 53%, score 60, coverage 84%%	MEDIUM HV 52.8% ann. · 760 bars
6M 2026-10-23 17:35:23	68,500.00	94,187.50 +37.5%	61,307.50 → 80,830.00 -10.5% … +18.0%	47,950.00 -30.0%	53,087.50 → 89,050.00	55.0%	65 760 bars, blended vol 53%, score 60, coverage 84%%	MEDIUM HV 52.8% ann. · 760 bars
12M 2026-10-23 17:35:23	68,500.00	104,462.50 +52.5%	58,225.00 → 85,625.00 -15.0% … +25.0%	39,387.50 -42.5%	46,237.50 → 97,612.50	55.0%	65 760 bars, blended vol 53%, score 60, coverage 84%%	HIGH HV 52.8% ann. · 760 bars

Bull case

If price above the 200-day average (trend intact), a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.

band +2.0% … +3.5% · 68,500.00 – 68,500.00

Base case

mildly positive

band -1.0% … +1.5% · 68,500.00 – 68,500.00

Bear case

Downside triggers: realised volatility already elevated. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.

band -2.5% … -1.0% · 68,500.00 – 68,500.00

Catalysts the model is watching

Demo synthetic: BTCUSD guides below consensus on cost pressure
Demo synthetic: BTCUSD confirms exploratory talks with supplier

Key risks & invalidation

Elevated realised volatility (48.5%)
Historic drawdown deeper than 48%

Model assumptions

Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 52.8% annualised).
The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).
Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.
Index regime assumed: sideways.
Close below the 63887.67 support band or the strategy stop.
Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.
Volatility expanding beyond 84% annualised invalidates position sizing.
Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change).

Reference price 68,500.00 at 2026-10-23 17:35:23 · regime at generation sideways · data demo · freshness 0s. These bands are conditional distributions from stored inputs, not advice or a promise about outcomes.

Fundamentals and analyst coverage

Not applicable: BTCUSD is stored as CRYPTO, so there are no filings, EPS estimates or analyst ratings behind it. The technical, risk and sentiment components of the score still apply, and they are shown above.

Ownership, insiders and short interest

Inst. position changenot storedreported change vs the prior stored quarter

Net insider (USD)not stored

Short % of floatnot stored

Days to covernot stored

No ownership rows stored.

13F-style holdings, insider filings and short-interest settlements are separate ingestion jobs; none of them has written a row for this symbol.

The score card marks the institutional component as incomplete instead of guessing.

Options

No chain stored for this symbol

Full chain Flow

No option chain stored.

Chains are only stored for symbols the options job covers, and only for the expiry it snapshots.

Open the flow page for a symbol that has data, or run the options ingestion.

News mentioning BTCUSD

Stored headlines linked to this security, newest first. Sentiment scores come from the stored scorer, not from this page.

Demo synthetic: BTCUSD guides below consensus on cost pressure

earnings 5 days ago -48% sentiment importance 0 earnings

Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.

Demo synthetic: BTCUSD confirms exploratory talks with supplier

mna 14 days ago +24% sentiment importance 0

Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.

Score

qm_ai_scores row #895

59.5

composite / 100 · model score-1.0.0

CONSTRUCTIVE risk MEDIUM confidence 61

Technical 25 55.7

Fundamental 25 50.0

Momentum 15 55.1

Sentiment 10 65.8

Institutional 10 50.0

Risk 15 78.6

Why the model scored it this way

TECHNICAL Trend Strength Adx 100
ADX(14) 51.1 — trending
RISK Liquidity 97
Average $604107193M traded per session
RISK Correlation 97
Correlation to benchmark 0.63-year rolling: -0.01
SENTIMENT Sentiment Delta 95
30-day sentiment change 23.7 pts
RISK Gap Risk 91
Median overnight gap 1.51% — position sizing must survive opens
RISK Sector Risk 90
Sector average volatility 20%
TECHNICAL Macd Signal 85
MACD(12,26,9) bullish, histogram 49.306
RISK Market Risk 85
Benchmark volatility 20.1% · regime: Sideways · normal vol · risk-off
RISK Event Risk Earnings 82
No scheduled earnings date on file
TECHNICAL Volume Confirmation 76
Relative volume 1.66× its own 30-day average
RISK Beta 72
Beta -0.04 vs the reference index
TECHNICAL Trend Structure 32
Price vs 20/50/200-day moving averages: down
TECHNICAL 52w Position 35
-36.2% from its 52-week high
MOMENTUM Multi Horizon Performance 63
1M -13.3% · 3M -1.4% · 6M +42.9% · 12M +59.1%

Scored on synthetic demonstration data. Directionally realistic, not a forecast of any real market.

Category ranks

Position among scored securities in each evidence category.

Category	Score	Rank	Evidence
HIGH_RISK	48.5	1	Volatility 48.5% / ATR 10.3% of price — expected move per bar is large
HIGH_RISK	48.5	1	Volatility 48.5% / ATR 10.3% of price — expected move per bar is large
HIGH_RISK	48.5	1	Volatility 48.5% / ATR 10.3% of price — expected move per bar is large
HIGH_RISK	48.5	1	Volatility 48.5% / ATR 10.3% of price — expected move per bar is large
HIGH_RISK	48.5	1	Volatility 48.5% / ATR 10.3% of price — expected move per bar is large

Levels

Stored support/resistance from the snapshot row, not drawn from the chart in the browser.

Resistance (stored): $60,285.34
Support (stored): $51,868.22
20-day SMA: $72,375.95
50-day SMA: $83,737.52
200-day SMA: $63,887.67
Trend: down
Above SMA50 / SMA200: no / no
From 52w high: -36.2%
MACD histogram: 49.306
RSI(14): 38.1
Relative strength (3m): -5.7%
RS rank: not stored /100

Sentiment

Stored buckets (each row is one scoring run over the news window).

Bucket start	Score	Label	Mentions	Method
2026-10-20 13:00	-20%	negative	7	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-20 14:00	-20%	negative	7	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-20 16:00	-20%	negative	7	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-20 17:00	-20%	negative	7	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 13:00	-18%	neutral	28	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 14:00	-18%	neutral	28	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 16:00	-18%	neutral	28	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 17:00	-18%	neutral	28	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment

Catalysts and risks

Stored catalysts

Demo synthetic: BTCUSD guides below consensus on cost pressure
Demo synthetic: BTCUSD confirms exploratory talks with supplier

Stored risks

Elevated realised volatility (48.5%)
Historic drawdown deeper than 48%

Validation

Forecasts on this symbol whose horizon has matured, scored against the stored bars.

All models

Nothing to score yet: settle the matured forecasts with php bin/pipeline.php --cmd=settle and this table fills with realised-versus-forecast rows.

Peer comparison

Nothing stored yet.

No peer set stored (peers are matched on the stored sector/industry columns).

What this page did not do.

It did not fetch a quote, call an external model, or extend the chart. It read 156000 stored bar rows in total across the universe (demo data, last trade 2026-10-23), and the score shown here was written at 2026-10-23 17:35 by model score-1.0.0.