Simon Property Group

SPG NEUTRAL MEDIUM EQUITY DEMO

$340.58 -1.05% 1-day change from the stored snapshot · 28 hours ago

DEMO DATASET last stored bar 2026-10-23 · scores computed 2026-10-23 17:35:23 · every figure below is read from these rows, nothing is computed in the browser

Price · stored daily bars

126 bars ending 2026-10-23 · demo data

Indicators are computed from the same stored closes the score used; the forecast fan is drawn from qm_predictions, not from a live model call. how this is drawn

Open$337.84

Day range$347.98 / $330.47

Prev close$344.19

Volume97.8M

RVOL 30d1.54×session volume over stored 30-day average

Avg $ volume$22.1B

Market cap$2.21T

HV2028.8% ann.

Beta0.40

RSI(14)47.4

ATR %4.41%

Max drawdown-26.9%

52-week rangefrom $315.05 to $452.04

52-week low / high$315.05 / $452.04

From 52w high-24.7%

Liquiditynot storeddays of average volume to fill 1% of float

Forecast

Stored scenarios from the last pipeline run. The model that wrote them is named on each row; no forecast is generated when you look at this page.

Horizon	Ref	Bull high	Base range	Bear low	P10 → P90	P(up)	Confidence	Risk
1D 2026-10-23 17:35:23	340.58	347.39 +2.0%	338.88 → 343.99 -0.5% … +1.0%	333.77 -2.0%	335.47 → 345.69	53.0%	69 760 bars, blended vol 28%, score 57, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 27.9% ann. · 760 bars
5D 2026-10-23 17:35:23	340.58	354.20 +4.0%	337.17 → 347.39 -1.0% … +2.0%	330.36 -3.0%	333.77 → 350.80	54.0%	69 760 bars, blended vol 28%, score 57, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 27.9% ann. · 760 bars
1M 2026-10-23 17:35:23	340.58	367.83 +8.0%	333.77 → 354.20 -2.0% … +4.0%	316.74 -7.0%	323.55 → 361.01	54.0%	69 760 bars, blended vol 28%, score 57, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 27.9% ann. · 760 bars
3M 2026-10-23 17:35:23	340.58	386.56 +13.5%	325.25 → 361.01 -4.5% … +6.0%	299.71 -12.0%	309.93 → 376.34	54.0%	69 760 bars, blended vol 28%, score 57, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 27.9% ann. · 760 bars
6M 2026-10-23 17:35:23	340.58	406.99 +19.5%	320.15 → 371.23 -6.0% … +9.0%	284.38 -16.5%	299.71 → 391.67	54.0%	69 760 bars, blended vol 28%, score 57, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 27.9% ann. · 760 bars
12M 2026-10-23 17:35:23	340.58	434.24 +27.5%	315.04 → 383.15 -7.5% … +12.5%	263.95 -22.5%	280.98 → 417.21	54.0%	69 760 bars, blended vol 28%, score 57, coverage 100%%	MEDIUM HV 27.9% ann. · 760 bars

Bull case

If RSI mid-range — room to extend, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.

band +1.0% … +2.0% · 340.58 – 340.58

Base case

mildly positive

band -0.5% … +1.0% · 340.58 – 340.58

Bear case

Downside triggers: P/E 29.2× leaves no valuation buffer. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.

band -2.0% … -1.0% · 340.58 – 340.58

Catalysts the model is watching

Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)
Street target implies 9.8%

Key risks & invalidation

Binary event: 2026-10-23

Model assumptions

Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 27.9% annualised).
The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).
Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.
Index regime assumed: sideways.
Close below the 374.92 support band or the strategy stop.
Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.
Volatility expanding beyond 45% annualised invalidates position sizing.
Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change).

Reference price 340.58 at 2026-10-23 17:35:23 · regime at generation sideways · data demo · freshness 0s. These bands are conditional distributions from stored inputs, not advice or a promise about outcomes.

Fundamentals

Latest stored period · FY2026 · filed 2026-12-31

snapshot JSON

Revenue$274BYoY +7.0%

EPS (TTM)11.59growth +7.5%

Net income$75.1B

Free cash flow$95.8Bmargin 28.4%

Gross margin56.8%

Operating margin27.6%

ROE19.7%

ROIC11.8%

Debt / equity0.38

Current ratio1.72

Interest cover16.79×

Net debt$72.0B

P/E29.22×

P/E forward27.54×

PEG4.76

P/S · P/B · EV/EBITDA8.01 · 5.74 · 20.15

Dividend yield0.68%payout 64%

Buyback yield1.04%

Profit margin27.4%

Cash$108B

Stored periods (raw rows, newest first)

Period	Revenue	Revenue YoY	EPS	Gross margin	Op margin	FCF margin	ROE	Filed
FY2026 FY	$274B	+7.0%	11.59	56.8%	27.6%	28.4%	19.7%	2026-12-31
FY2025 FY	$255B	+5.5%	10.78	56.3%	27.8%	24.8%	17.1%	2025-12-31
FY2024 FY	$251B	+7.5%	10.59	56.9%	31.4%	27.3%	6.1%	2024-12-31
FY2023 FY	$229B	+4.7%	9.68	56.3%	30.5%	30.7%	20.0%	2023-12-31
Q4 2026 Q	$57.3B	+4.7%	2.42	56.3%	30.5%	30.7%	20.0%	2026-07-01

Earnings and estimates

Next stored report 2026-12-10 · 0 day(s) away

Implied move3.5%from the stored option chain

EPS estimate3.11

Revenue estimate$68.5B

Consensus index58.5stored on 0–100 in the snapshot; higher = more constructive

% buy ratingsnot storednull on this row — the snapshot job did not store it

Target upsidenot stored

Gap risk0.66%median overnight gap

Time of dayamc

Report	EPS est	EPS actual	Surprise	Rev est	Rev actual	Guidance	Source
2026-12-10	3.11	not stored	not stored	$68.5B	not stored	none	synthetic_demo
2026-10-23	2.94	not stored	not stored	$68.5B	not stored	none	synthetic_demo
2026-07-19	2.94	3.32	+13.2%	$68.5B	$71.9B	lower	synthetic_demo
2026-06-01	2.97	2.75	-7.3%	$68.5B	$71.7B	lower	synthetic_demo
2026-04-14	3.01	2.71	-10.2%	$68.5B	$71.9B	lower	synthetic_demo
2026-02-25	2.98	3.11	+4.6%	$68.5B	$67.8B	raise	synthetic_demo
2026-01-08	2.72	2.65	-2.5%	$68.5B	$71.2B	raise	synthetic_demo
2025-11-21	2.72	2.93	+8.0%	$68.5B	$66.3B	maintain	synthetic_demo

As of	Horizon	EPS avg	EPS high	EPS low	Revenue	Analysts	90d revisions
2026-10-23	FY1	12.98	13.31	10.30	$295B	11	0 / 2
2026-10-23	FY2	13.58	16.00	10.56	$284B	16	4 / 1
2026-10-23	Q1	3.13	3.50	2.76	$72.5B	7	2 / 8
2026-10-23	Q2	3.23	3.79	2.78	$70.6B	35	6 / 2

Analyst actions

Stored rating changes and targets. The consensus numbers are the same ones the sentiment component read.

Date	Firm	Action	From	To	Target	Consensus	% buy
2026-10-12	Northgate Securities	downgrade	Buy	Neutral	$424.20	3.17	28%
2026-09-04	Halcyon Partners	downgrade	Buy	Hold	$327.85	3.17	25%
2026-07-03	Meridian Research	maintained	Outperform	Outperform	$382.14	3.17	38%
2026-05-20	Meridian Research	upgrade	Hold	Outperform	$426.27	3.17	43%
2026-04-18	Halcyon Partners	upgrade	Hold	Buy	$309.30	3.17	32%

Ownership, insiders and short interest

Inst. position change-62.0%reported change vs the prior stored quarter

Net insider (USD)not stored

Short % of float3.1%

Days to cover6.3

Period end	Holder	Type	Shares	Value	% float	Change
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	334M	$114B	8.3%	not stored
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	334M	$114B	8.3%	not stored
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	334M	$114B	8.3%	not stored
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	334M	$114B	8.3%	not stored
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	334M	$114B	8.3%	not stored
2026-09-01	Capital Research Global	fund	284M	$96.7B	7.1%	not stored
2026-09-01	Capital Research Global	fund	284M	$96.7B	7.1%	not stored
2026-09-01	Capital Research Global	fund	284M	$96.7B	7.1%	not stored

Dividends and splits

Ex-date	Pay date	Amount	Frequency	Yield at ex
2026-09-04	2026-09-22	$0.576	quarterly	0.68%
2026-06-12	2026-06-30	$0.579	quarterly	0.68%
2026-03-13	2026-03-31	$0.581	quarterly	0.68%
2025-12-05	2025-12-23	$0.583	quarterly	0.68%
2025-09-19	2025-10-07	$0.586	quarterly	0.68%
2025-06-13	2025-07-01	$0.588	quarterly	0.68%
2025-03-14	2025-04-01	$0.590	quarterly	0.68%
2024-12-20	2025-01-07	$0.593	quarterly	0.68%
2024-08-30	2024-09-17	$0.595	quarterly	0.68%

Nothing stored yet.

Options

No chain stored for this symbol

Full chain Flow

No option chain stored.

Chains are only stored for symbols the options job covers, and only for the expiry it snapshots.

Open the flow page for a symbol that has data, or run the options ingestion.

News mentioning SPG

Stored headlines linked to this security, newest first. Sentiment scores come from the stored scorer, not from this page.

No stored headline mentions this symbol.

Score

qm_ai_scores row #855

57.5

composite / 100 · model score-1.0.0

NEUTRAL risk MEDIUM confidence 64

Technical 25 55.1

Fundamental 25 60.1

Momentum 15 41.8

Sentiment 10 64.7

Institutional 10 34.6

Risk 15 83.3

Why the model scored it this way

RISK Correlation 97
Correlation to benchmark 0.63-year rolling: 0.23
RISK Liquidity 96
Average $22128M traded per session
SENTIMENT Sentiment Delta 95
30-day sentiment change 31.6 pts
RISK Gap Risk 95
Median overnight gap 0.66% — position sizing must survive opens
RISK Sector Risk 86
Sector average volatility 23.4%
TECHNICAL Trend Structure 14
Price vs 20/50/200-day moving averages: strong down
TECHNICAL Macd Signal 85
MACD(12,26,9) bullish, histogram 0.233
RISK Market Risk 85
Benchmark volatility 20.1% · regime: Sideways · normal vol · risk-off
RISK Beta 84
Beta 0.4 vs the reference index
FUNDAMENTAL Free Cash Flow 82
FCF margin 28.4%
FUNDAMENTAL Coverage 82
Interest coverage 16.8×
FUNDAMENTAL Peg 18
PEG 4.76
FUNDAMENTAL Operating Margin 80
Operating margin 27.6%
SENTIMENT Analyst Distribution 79
79% Buy/Strong Buy · 15% Hold · 6% Sell/Short

Scored on synthetic demonstration data. Directionally realistic, not a forecast of any real market.

Levels

Stored support/resistance from the snapshot row, not drawn from the chart in the browser.

Resistance (stored): $353.17
Support (stored): $333.00
20-day SMA: $343.14
50-day SMA: $349.52
200-day SMA: $374.92
Trend: strong_down
Above SMA50 / SMA200: no / no
From 52w high: -24.7%
MACD histogram: 0.233
RSI(14): 47.4
Relative strength (3m): -27.8%
RS rank: not stored /100

Sentiment

Stored buckets (each row is one scoring run over the news window).

Bucket start	Score	Label	Mentions	Method
2026-10-20 13:00	-47%	negative	28	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-20 14:00	-47%	negative	28	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-20 16:00	-47%	negative	28	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-20 17:00	-47%	negative	28	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 13:00	+51%	positive	37	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 14:00	+51%	positive	37	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 16:00	+51%	positive	37	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 17:00	+51%	positive	37	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment

Catalysts and risks

Stored catalysts

Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)
Street target implies 9.8%

Stored risks

Binary event: 2026-10-23

Same sector

Ranked by stored composite score.

Symbol	Price	1d	Score	Stance
PLD	$185.43	-2.16%	58.1	CONSTRUCTIVE
O	$64.71	-0.16%	55.4	NEUTRAL
AMT	$353.44	+1.25%	54.5	NEUTRAL
XLRE	$64.00	-1.95%	52.1	NEUTRAL

Validation

Forecasts on this symbol whose horizon has matured, scored against the stored bars.

All models

Nothing to score yet: settle the matured forecasts with php bin/pipeline.php --cmd=settle and this table fills with realised-versus-forecast rows.

Peer comparison

Symbol	Price	1d	Cap	P/E	PEG	P/S	P/B	Rev growth	EPS growth	ROE	Gross	Op margin
AMT	$353.44	+1.25%	$2.25T	25.55×	4.34	7.78×	2.69×	+4.9%	+7.3%	10.5%	62.9%	31.2%
PLD	$185.43	-2.16%	$903B	32.11×	5.52	8.42×	1.08×	+6.4%	+6.4%	3.4%	57.5%	29.8%
O	$64.71	-0.16%	$32.5B	19.25×	5.99	3.00×	5.96×	+4.0%	+4.4%	30.9%	32.4%	18.5%

What this page did not do.

It did not fetch a quote, call an external model, or extend the chart. It read 156000 stored bar rows in total across the universe (demo data, last trade 2026-10-23), and the score shown here was written at 2026-10-23 17:35 by model score-1.0.0.