ConocoPhillips

COP CONSTRUCTIVE LOW EQUITY DEMO

$222.52 +0.21% 1-day change from the stored snapshot · 28 hours ago

DEMO DATASET last stored bar 2026-10-23 · scores computed 2026-10-23 17:35:23 · every figure below is read from these rows, nothing is computed in the browser

Price · stored daily bars

126 bars ending 2026-10-23 · demo data

Indicators are computed from the same stored closes the score used; the forecast fan is drawn from qm_predictions, not from a live model call. how this is drawn

Open$222.61

Day range$224.56 / $221.36

Prev close$222.06

Volume6.29M

RVOL 30d1.52×session volume over stored 30-day average

Avg $ volume$916M

Market cap$184B

HV2019.0% ann.

Beta0.38

RSI(14)59.3

ATR %2.15%

Max drawdown-32.6%

52-week rangefrom $200.88 to $295.89

52-week low / high$200.88 / $295.89

From 52w high-24.8%

Liquiditynot storeddays of average volume to fill 1% of float

Forecast

Stored scenarios from the last pipeline run. The model that wrote them is named on each row; no forecast is generated when you look at this page.

Horizon	Ref	Bull high	Base range	Bear low	P10 → P90	P(up)	Confidence	Risk
1D 2026-10-23 17:35:23	222.52	225.86 +1.5%	221.41 → 223.63 -0.5% … +0.5%	220.29 -1.0%	220.29 → 224.75	55.0%	69 760 bars, blended vol 18%, score 62, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 17.6% ann. · 760 bars
5D 2026-10-23 17:35:23	222.52	229.20 +3.0%	220.29 → 224.75 -1.0% … +1.0%	218.07 -2.0%	220.29 → 226.97	57.0%	69 760 bars, blended vol 18%, score 62, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 17.6% ann. · 760 bars
1M 2026-10-23 17:35:23	222.52	233.65 +5.0%	220.29 → 229.20 -1.0% … +3.0%	213.62 -4.0%	215.84 → 231.42	57.0%	69 760 bars, blended vol 18%, score 62, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 17.6% ann. · 760 bars
3M 2026-10-23 17:35:23	222.52	242.55 +9.0%	219.18 → 232.53 -1.5% … +4.5%	205.83 -7.5%	212.51 → 239.21	57.0%	69 760 bars, blended vol 18%, score 62, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 17.6% ann. · 760 bars
6M 2026-10-23 17:35:23	222.52	252.56 +13.5%	215.84 → 235.87 -3.0% … +6.0%	202.49 -9.0%	205.83 → 245.88	57.0%	69 760 bars, blended vol 18%, score 62, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 17.6% ann. · 760 bars
12M 2026-10-23 17:35:23	222.52	261.46 +17.5%	211.39 → 239.21 -5.0% … +7.5%	194.71 -12.5%	200.27 → 255.90	57.0%	69 760 bars, blended vol 18%, score 62, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 17.6% ann. · 760 bars

Bull case

If RSI mid-range — room to extend, fundamentals scoring above the coverage median, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.

band +1.0% … +1.5% · 222.52 – 222.52

Base case

mildly positive

band -0.5% … +0.5% · 222.52 – 222.52

Bear case

Downside triggers: a market-wide risk-off move alone can carry the 5–20th percentile band. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.

band -1.0% … -0.5% · 222.52 – 222.52

Catalysts the model is watching

Earnings report 2026-10-23 (after close)
Demo synthetic: COP faces second request in pending acquisition
Demo synthetic: COP faces second request in pending acquisition
Demo synthetic: COP faces second request in pending acquisition
Street target implies 5%

Key risks & invalidation

Binary event: 2026-10-23

Model assumptions

Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 17.6% annualised).
The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).
Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.
Index regime assumed: sideways.
Close below the 233.87 support band or the strategy stop.
Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.
Volatility expanding beyond 28% annualised invalidates position sizing.
Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change).

Reference price 222.52 at 2026-10-23 17:35:23 · regime at generation sideways · data demo · freshness 0s. These bands are conditional distributions from stored inputs, not advice or a promise about outcomes.

Fundamentals

Latest stored period · FY2026 · filed 2026-12-31

snapshot JSON

Revenue$126BYoY -1.8%

EPS (TTM)22.82growth -1.8%

Net income$18.9B

Free cash flow$21.3Bmargin 16.7%

Gross margin35.7%

Operating margin15.2%

ROE55.8%

ROIC9.0%

Debt / equity2.10

Current ratio1.02

Interest cover22.96×

Net debt$13.9B

P/E9.75×

P/E forward9.89×

PEGnot stored

P/S · P/B · EV/EBITDA1.46 · 5.44 · 6.72

Dividend yield5.39%payout 20%

Buyback yield2.42%

Profit margin15.0%

Cash$19.3B

Stored periods (raw rows, newest first)

Period	Revenue	Revenue YoY	EPS	Gross margin	Op margin	FCF margin	ROE	Filed
FY2026 FY	$126B	-1.8%	22.82	35.7%	15.2%	16.7%	55.8%	2026-12-31
FY2025 FY	$127B	-2.5%	23.09	33.4%	15.6%	12.4%	52.8%	2025-12-31
FY2024 FY	$129B	-0.7%	23.46	29.3%	16.4%	17.1%	40.0%	2024-12-31
FY2023 FY	$125B	-1.1%	22.75	33.7%	17.3%	11.0%	24.0%	2023-12-31
Q4 2026 Q	$31.4B	-1.1%	5.69	33.7%	17.3%	11.0%	24.0%	2026-07-01

Earnings and estimates

Next stored report 2026-12-10 · 0 day(s) away

Implied move10.1%from the stored option chain

EPS estimate6.10

Revenue estimate$31.5B

Consensus index69.8stored on 0–100 in the snapshot; higher = more constructive

% buy ratingsnot storednull on this row — the snapshot job did not store it

Target upsidenot stored

Gap risk0.31%median overnight gap

Time of daybmo

Report	EPS est	EPS actual	Surprise	Rev est	Rev actual	Guidance	Source
2026-12-10	6.10	not stored	not stored	$31.5B	not stored	none	synthetic_demo
2026-10-23	5.67	not stored	not stored	$31.5B	not stored	none	synthetic_demo
2026-07-19	6.24	6.50	+4.1%	$31.5B	$31.9B	lower	synthetic_demo
2026-06-01	5.45	6.33	+16.2%	$31.5B	$31.7B	raise	synthetic_demo
2026-04-14	5.89	6.58	+11.7%	$31.5B	$33.1B	lower	synthetic_demo
2026-02-25	5.95	6.79	+14.1%	$31.5B	$31.3B	maintain	synthetic_demo
2026-01-08	5.91	6.62	+12.0%	$31.5B	$32.5B	raise	synthetic_demo
2025-11-21	5.83	5.65	-3.2%	$31.5B	$30.7B	maintain	synthetic_demo

As of	Horizon	EPS avg	EPS high	EPS low	Revenue	Analysts	90d revisions
2026-10-23	FY1	26.34	27.19	25.80	$136B	22	7 / 4
2026-10-23	FY2	24.99	29.04	20.54	$138B	16	0 / 2
2026-10-23	Q1	6.22	6.65	5.73	$32.9B	29	8 / 0
2026-10-23	Q2	6.44	7.13	5.97	$34.0B	29	2 / 1

Analyst actions

Stored rating changes and targets. The consensus numbers are the same ones the sentiment component read.

Date	Firm	Action	From	To	Target	Consensus	% buy
2026-10-12	Kestrel Analytics	initiated	Buy	Buy	$240.65	3.13	27%
2026-08-21	Kestrel Analytics	upgrade	Hold	Outperform	$192.67	3.13	36%
2026-07-03	Meridian Research	upgrade	Hold	Sell	$269.37	3.13	27%
2026-05-18	Meridian Research	upgrade	Hold	Sell	$217.72	3.13	38%
2026-04-09	Kestrel Analytics	downgrade	Buy	Neutral	$248.01	3.13	39%

Ownership, insiders and short interest

Inst. position change-63.3%reported change vs the prior stored quarter

Net insider (USD)not stored

Short % of float6.4%

Days to cover26.7

Period end	Holder	Type	Shares	Value	% float	Change
2026-09-01	Fidelity Concord	fund	31.7M	$7.06B	6.2%	not stored
2026-09-01	Fidelity Concord	fund	31.7M	$7.06B	6.2%	not stored
2026-09-01	Fidelity Concord	fund	31.7M	$7.06B	6.2%	not stored
2026-09-01	Fidelity Concord	fund	31.7M	$7.06B	6.2%	not stored
2026-09-01	Fidelity Concord	fund	31.7M	$7.06B	6.2%	not stored
2026-09-01	State Street Global Advisors	fund	26.5M	$5.90B	5.2%	not stored
2026-09-01	State Street Global Advisors	fund	26.5M	$5.90B	5.2%	not stored
2026-09-01	State Street Global Advisors	fund	26.5M	$5.90B	5.2%	not stored

Dividends and splits

Ex-date	Pay date	Amount	Frequency	Yield at ex
2026-08-28	2026-09-15	$2.998	quarterly	5.39%
2026-06-05	2026-06-23	$3.010	quarterly	5.39%
2026-03-13	2026-03-31	$3.022	quarterly	5.39%
2025-12-19	2026-01-06	$3.034	quarterly	5.39%
2025-08-29	2025-09-16	$3.046	quarterly	5.39%
2025-06-20	2025-07-08	$3.058	quarterly	5.39%
2025-03-14	2025-04-01	$3.070	quarterly	5.39%
2024-11-29	2024-12-17	$3.082	quarterly	5.39%
2024-08-30	2024-09-17	$3.094	quarterly	5.39%

Nothing stored yet.

Options

No chain stored for this symbol

Full chain Flow

No option chain stored.

Chains are only stored for symbols the options job covers, and only for the expiry it snapshots.

Open the flow page for a symbol that has data, or run the options ingestion.

News mentioning COP

Stored headlines linked to this security, newest first. Sentiment scores come from the stored scorer, not from this page.

Demo synthetic: COP faces second request in pending acquisition

regulatory 4 days ago -40% sentiment importance 0