Exxon Mobil Corp.

XOM NEUTRAL MEDIUM EQUITY DEMO

$46.73 -3.62% 1-day change from the stored snapshot · 2 days ago

DEMO DATASET last stored bar 2026-10-23 · scores computed 2026-10-25 04:13:59 · every figure below is read from these rows, nothing is computed in the browser

Price · stored daily bars

126 bars ending 2026-10-23 · demo data

Indicators are computed from the same stored closes the score used; the forecast fan is drawn from qm_predictions, not from a live model call. how this is drawn

Open$48.86

Day range$50.72 / $46.00

Prev close$48.48

Volume20.5M

RVOL 30d1.40×session volume over stored 30-day average

Avg $ volume$773M

Market cap$89.5B

HV2032.1% ann.

Beta0.60

RSI(14)26.8

ATR %6.26%

Max drawdown-73.2%

52-week rangefrom $46.00 to $90.07

52-week low / high$46.00 / $90.07

From 52w high-48.1%

Liquiditynot storeddays of average volume to fill 1% of float

Forecast

Stored scenarios from the last pipeline run. The model that wrote them is named on each row; no forecast is generated when you look at this page.

Horizon	Ref	Bull high	Base range	Bear low	P10 → P90	P(up)	Confidence	Risk
1D 2026-10-25 04:13:59	46.73	47.66 +2.0%	46.26 → 47.20 -1.0% … +1.0%	45.80 -2.0%	46.03 → 47.43	51.0%	56 760 bars, blended vol 33%, score 52, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 32.9% ann. · 760 bars
5D 2026-10-25 04:13:59	46.73	49.07 +5.0%	45.80 → 47.66 -2.0% … +2.0%	44.39 -5.0%	45.33 → 48.60	51.0%	56 760 bars, blended vol 33%, score 52, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 32.9% ann. · 760 bars
1M 2026-10-25 04:13:59	46.73	51.40 +10.0%	44.86 → 48.60 -4.0% … +4.0%	42.52 -9.0%	43.46 → 50.00	51.0%	56 760 bars, blended vol 33%, score 52, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 32.9% ann. · 760 bars
3M 2026-10-25 04:13:59	46.73	54.44 +16.5%	43.93 → 50.23 -6.0% … +7.5%	39.02 -16.5%	41.12 → 53.04	51.0%	56 760 bars, blended vol 33%, score 52, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 32.9% ann. · 760 bars
6M 2026-10-25 04:13:59	46.73	57.95 +24.0%	42.52 → 51.64 -9.0% … +10.5%	36.22 -22.5%	38.32 → 55.14	51.0%	56 760 bars, blended vol 33%, score 52, coverage 100%%	MEDIUM HV 32.9% ann. · 760 bars
12M 2026-10-25 04:13:59	46.73	61.92 +32.5%	40.89 → 53.74 -12.5% … +15.0%	31.54 -32.5%	35.05 → 58.41	51.0%	56 760 bars, blended vol 33%, score 52, coverage 100%%	MEDIUM HV 32.9% ann. · 760 bars

Bull case

If fundamentals scoring above the coverage median, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.

band +1.0% … +2.0% · 46.73 – 46.73

Base case

mildly positive

band -1.0% … +1.0% · 46.73 – 46.73

Bear case

Downside triggers: momentum is fading. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.

band -2.0% … -1.0% · 46.73 – 46.73

Catalysts the model is watching

Earnings report 2026-12-10 (as scheduled)
Demo synthetic: XOM guides below consensus on cost pressure
Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, XOM beta repriced
Demo synthetic: options market shows elevated XOM skew into event
Street target implies 4.1%

Key risks & invalidation

Historic drawdown deeper than 73%
Binary event: 2026-12-10

Model assumptions

Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 32.9% annualised).
The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).
Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.
Index regime assumed: sideways.
Close below the 65.24 support band or the strategy stop.
Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.
Volatility expanding beyond 53% annualised invalidates position sizing.
Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change).

Reference price 46.73 at 2026-10-25 04:13:59 · regime at generation sideways · data demo · freshness 112439s. These bands are conditional distributions from stored inputs, not advice or a promise about outcomes.

Fundamentals

Latest stored period · FY2026 · filed 2026-12-31

snapshot JSON

Revenue$61.2BYoY +4.7%

EPS (TTM)5.15growth +5.6%

Net income$9.87B

Free cash flow$9.70Bmargin 15.3%

Gross margin37.1%

Operating margin17.4%

ROE10.1%

ROIC11.3%

Debt / equity1.59

Current ratio2.06

Interest cover17.40×

Net debt$4.82B

P/E8.99×

P/E forward8.63×

PEG2.15

P/S · P/B · EV/EBITDA1.45 · 0.91 · 6.20

Dividend yield2.81%payout 53%

Buyback yield0.95%

Profit margin16.1%

Cash$23.7B

Stored periods (raw rows, newest first)

Period	Revenue	Revenue YoY	EPS	Gross margin	Op margin	FCF margin	ROE	Filed
FY2026 FY	$61.2B	+4.7%	5.15	37.1%	17.4%	15.3%	10.1%	2026-12-31
FY2025 FY	$60.5B	+3.6%	5.10	33.4%	17.7%	15.1%	20.3%	2025-12-31
FY2024 FY	$57.6B	+3.3%	4.86	33.7%	19.1%	12.1%	48.3%	2024-12-31
FY2023 FY	$54.2B	+2.9%	4.56	34.0%	17.0%	18.5%	59.4%	2023-12-31
Q4 2026 Q	$13.5B	+2.9%	1.14	34.0%	17.0%	18.5%	59.4%	2026-07-01

Earnings and estimates

Next stored report 2026-12-10 · 33 day(s) away

Implied move3.4%from the stored option chain

EPS estimate1.30

Revenue estimate$15.3B

Consensus index60.9stored on 0–100 in the snapshot; higher = more constructive

% buy ratingsnot storednull on this row — the snapshot job did not store it

Target upsidenot stored

Gap risk0.65%median overnight gap

Time of daybmo

Report	EPS est	EPS actual	Surprise	Rev est	Rev actual	Guidance	Source
2026-12-10	1.30	not stored	not stored	$15.3B	not stored	none	synthetic_demo
2026-10-23	1.31	not stored	not stored	$15.3B	not stored	none	synthetic_demo
2026-07-19	1.24	1.23	-0.7%	$15.3B	$15.8B	lower	synthetic_demo
2026-06-01	1.41	1.59	+12.8%	$15.3B	$14.7B	lower	synthetic_demo
2026-04-14	1.37	1.56	+13.5%	$15.3B	$15.4B	lower	synthetic_demo
2026-02-25	1.25	1.42	+13.2%	$15.3B	$14.8B	maintain	synthetic_demo
2026-01-08	1.34	1.34	+0.4%	$15.3B	$14.6B	lower	synthetic_demo
2025-11-21	1.31	1.22	-6.6%	$15.3B	$14.9B	maintain	synthetic_demo

As of	Horizon	EPS avg	EPS high	EPS low	Revenue	Analysts	90d revisions
2026-10-25	FY1	6.05	6.34	5.35	$65.2B	31	2 / 2
2026-10-25	FY2	5.69	6.68	4.67	$65.6B	19	5 / 6
2026-10-25	Q1	1.41	1.48	1.14	$16.7B	20	8 / 4
2026-10-25	Q2	1.36	1.61	1.34	$16.1B	30	6 / 2
2026-10-24	FY1	6.05	6.34	5.35	$65.2B	31	2 / 2
2026-10-24	FY2	5.69	6.68	4.67	$65.6B	19	5 / 6
2026-10-24	Q1	1.41	1.48	1.14	$16.7B	20	8 / 4
2026-10-24	Q2	1.36	1.61	1.34	$16.1B	30	6 / 2

Analyst actions

Stored rating changes and targets. The consensus numbers are the same ones the sentiment component read.

Date	Firm	Action	From	To	Target	Consensus	% buy
2026-10-06	Meridian Research	maintained	Buy	Buy	$52.16	2.28	42%
2026-08-23	Kestrel Analytics	initiated	Neutral	Neutral	$52.69	2.28	45%
2026-07-07	Meridian Research	upgrade	Hold	Outperform	$45.62	2.28	53%
2026-06-03	Halcyon Partners	upgrade	Hold	Hold	$47.25	2.28	54%
2026-04-15	Blue Harbor Capital Research	initiated	Outperform	Outperform	$45.42	2.28	61%

Ownership, insiders and short interest

Inst. position change-68.2%reported change vs the prior stored quarter

Net insider (USD)$-3.15M

Short % of float12.2%

Days to cover27.1

Period end	Holder	Type	Shares	Value	% float	Change
2026-09-01	Fidelity Concord	fund	96.1M	$4.49B	8.1%	not stored
2026-09-01	Fidelity Concord	fund	96.1M	$4.49B	8.1%	not stored
2026-09-01	Fidelity Concord	fund	96.1M	$4.49B	8.1%	not stored
2026-09-01	Fidelity Concord	fund	96.1M	$4.49B	8.1%	not stored
2026-09-01	Fidelity Concord	fund	96.1M	$4.49B	8.1%	not stored
2026-09-01	Fidelity Concord	fund	96.1M	$4.49B	8.1%	not stored
2026-09-01	Fidelity Concord	fund	96.1M	$4.49B	8.1%	not stored
2026-09-01	Fidelity Concord	fund	96.1M	$4.49B	8.1%	not stored

Trade date	Owner	Title	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
2026-09-20	Demo Officer 7210E4	Chief Financial Officer	Sale - Tax	67.5k	$52.98	$3.15M	1.42M
2026-05-22	Demo Officer 398A12	VP, Product	Sale - Open Market	79.4k	$46.28	$3.71M	2.04M
2026-03-19	Demo Officer 1B9B51	VP, Product	Buy - 10b5-1 Plan	58.7k	$48.55	$2.74M	149k

Dividends and splits

Ex-date	Pay date	Amount	Frequency	Yield at ex
2026-08-30	2026-09-17	$0.328	quarterly	2.81%
2026-08-29	2026-09-16	$0.328	quarterly	2.81%
2026-08-28	2026-09-15	$0.328	quarterly	2.81%
2026-06-21	2026-07-09	$0.329	quarterly	2.81%
2026-06-20	2026-07-08	$0.329	quarterly	2.81%
2026-06-19	2026-07-07	$0.329	quarterly	2.81%
2026-03-08	2026-03-26	$0.330	quarterly	2.81%
2026-03-07	2026-03-25	$0.330	quarterly	2.81%
2026-03-06	2026-03-24	$0.330	quarterly	2.81%
2025-12-07	2025-12-25	$0.332	quarterly	2.81%

Nothing stored yet.

Options

No chain stored for this symbol

Full chain Flow

No option chain stored.

Chains are only stored for symbols the options job covers, and only for the expiry it snapshots.

Open the flow page for a symbol that has data, or run the options ingestion.

News mentioning XOM

Stored headlines linked to this security, newest first. Sentiment scores come from the stored scorer, not from this page.

Demo synthetic: XOM guides below consensus on cost pressure

earnings 10 days ago -55% sentiment importance 0 earnings

Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.

Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, XOM beta repriced

macro 19 days ago +3% sentiment importance 0

Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.

Demo synthetic: options market shows elevated XOM skew into event

other 21 days ago -6% sentiment importance 0

Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.

Score

qm_ai_scores row #1452

51.9

composite / 100 · model score-1.0.0

NEUTRAL risk MEDIUM confidence 51

Technical 25 38.8

Fundamental 25 65.3

Momentum 15 26.1

Sentiment 10 67.6

Institutional 10 31.5

Risk 15 80.5

Why the model scored it this way

SENTIMENT Analyst Distribution 100
104% Buy/Strong Buy · 0% Hold · 1% Sell/Short
RISK Liquidity 96
Average $773.1M traded per session
RISK Correlation 95
Correlation to benchmark 0.63-year rolling: 0.37
SENTIMENT Sentiment Delta 95
30-day sentiment change 28.6 pts
SENTIMENT Recent Headline Tone 5
Last items: 0 positive / 1 negative headlines
RISK Gap Risk 95
Median overnight gap 0.65% — position sizing must survive opens
SENTIMENT Estimate Revisions 92
Net EPS estimate revisions (90d): 21
RISK Beta 90
Beta 0.6 vs the reference index
TECHNICAL Trend Structure 14
Price vs 20/50/200-day moving averages: strong down
RISK Market Risk 85
Benchmark volatility 20.1% · regime: Sideways · normal vol · risk-off
FUNDAMENTAL Coverage 82
Interest coverage 17.4×
RISK Event Risk Earnings 82
No earnings inside the next 3 weeks
MOMENTUM Multi Horizon Performance 18
1M -11.2% · 3M -26.7% · 6M -24.7% · 12M -37.7%
RISK Sector Risk 81
Sector average volatility 28%

Scored on synthetic demonstration data. Directionally realistic, not a forecast of any real market.

Category ranks

Position among scored securities in each evidence category.

Category	Score	Rank	Evidence
VALUE	73.0	1	P/E 9× · PEG 2.15 · P/B 0.9× with ROE 10.1%
VALUE	73.0	1	P/E 9× · PEG 2.15 · P/B 0.9× with ROE 10.1%
VALUE	73.0	1	P/E 9× · PEG 2.15 · P/B 0.9× with ROE 10.1%
VALUE	73.0	1	P/E 9× · PEG 2.15 · P/B 0.9× with ROE 10.1%
VALUE	73.0	1	P/E 9× · PEG 2.15 · P/B 0.9× with ROE 10.1%
VALUE	73.0	1	P/E 9× · PEG 2.15 · P/B 0.9× with ROE 10.1%
VALUE	73.0	1	P/E 9× · PEG 2.15 · P/B 0.9× with ROE 10.1%
VALUE	73.0	1	P/E 9× · PEG 2.15 · P/B 0.9× with ROE 10.1%
INCOME	49.5	2	Yield 2.81% · payout 53% · FCF margin 15.3%
INCOME	49.5	2	Yield 2.81% · payout 53% · FCF margin 15.3%
INCOME	49.5	2	Yield 2.81% · payout 53% · FCF margin 15.3%
INCOME	49.5	2	Yield 2.81% · payout 53% · FCF margin 15.3%
INCOME	49.5	2	Yield 2.81% · payout 53% · FCF margin 15.3%
INCOME	49.5	2	Yield 2.81% · payout 53% · FCF margin 15.3%
INCOME	49.5	2	Yield 2.81% · payout 53% · FCF margin 15.3%
INCOME	49.5	2	Yield 2.81% · payout 53% · FCF margin 15.3%

Levels

Stored support/resistance from the snapshot row, not drawn from the chart in the browser.

Resistance (stored): $57.59
Support (stored): $52.08
20-day SMA: $52.31
50-day SMA: $55.62
200-day SMA: $65.24
Trend: strong_down
Above SMA50 / SMA200: no / no
From 52w high: -48.1%
MACD histogram: -0.394
RSI(14): 26.8
Relative strength (3m): -31.0%
RS rank: not stored /100

Sentiment

Stored buckets (each row is one scoring run over the news window).

Bucket start	Score	Label	Mentions	Method
2026-10-22 04:00	-29%	negative	46	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 13:00	+30%	positive	38	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 14:00	+30%	positive	38	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 16:00	+30%	positive	38	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 17:00	+30%	positive	38	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-24 23:00	+30%	positive	38	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-25 02:00	+30%	positive	38	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-25 04:00	+30%	positive	38	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment

Catalysts and risks

Stored catalysts

Earnings report 2026-12-10 (as scheduled)
Demo synthetic: XOM guides below consensus on cost pressure
Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, XOM beta repriced
Demo synthetic: options market shows elevated XOM skew into event
Street target implies 4.1%

Stored risks

Historic drawdown deeper than 73%
Binary event: 2026-12-10

Same sector

Ranked by stored composite score.

Symbol	Price	1d	Score	Stance
GRID	$16.00	+0.97%	64.7	CONSTRUCTIVE
COP	$222.52	+0.21%	62.5	CONSTRUCTIVE
CVX	$61.83	-0.79%	57.2	NEUTRAL
EOG	$17.92	-0.77%	56.8	NEUTRAL
SLB	$103.86	-3.52%	54.7	NEUTRAL
XLE	$88.00	-0.25%	51.6	NEUTRAL

Validation

Forecasts on this symbol whose horizon has matured, scored against the stored bars.

All models

Nothing to score yet: settle the matured forecasts with php bin/pipeline.php --cmd=settle and this table fills with realised-versus-forecast rows.

Peer comparison

Symbol	Price	1d	Cap	P/E	PEG	P/S	P/B	Rev growth	EPS growth	ROE	Gross	Op margin
CVX	$61.83	-0.79%	$108B	8.09×	not stored	2.05×	6.46×	-2.3%	-1.3%	79.8%	52.4%	26.1%
EOG	$17.92	-0.77%	$28.5B	10.54×	not stored	2.11×	5.55×	-5.4%	-9.3%	52.6%	44.9%	21.0%
COP	$222.52	+0.21%	$184B	9.75×	not stored	1.46×	5.44×	-1.8%	-1.8%	55.8%	35.7%	15.2%
SLB	$103.86	-3.52%	$242B	12.09×	1.57	2.81×	3.28×	+7.8%	+8.5%	27.2%	46.6%	25.5%

What this page did not do.

It did not fetch a quote, call an external model, or extend the chart. It read 168800 stored bar rows in total across the universe (demo data, last trade 2026-10-23), and the score shown here was written at 2026-10-25 04:13 by model score-1.0.0.