Ecolab Inc.

ECL NEUTRAL MEDIUM EQUITY DEMO

$511.59 -1.52% 1-day change from the stored snapshot · 31 hours ago

DEMO DATASET last stored bar 2026-10-23 · scores computed 2026-10-23 17:35:23 · every figure below is read from these rows, nothing is computed in the browser

Price · stored daily bars

126 bars ending 2026-10-23 · demo data

Indicators are computed from the same stored closes the score used; the forecast fan is drawn from qm_predictions, not from a live model call. how this is drawn

Open$512.65

Day range$517.49 / $508.61

Prev close$519.47

Volume81.0M

RVOL 30d1.31×session volume over stored 30-day average

Avg $ volume$31.1B

Market cap$2.80T

HV2032.8% ann.

Beta0.62

RSI(14)52.1

ATR %3.68%

Max drawdown-45.3%

52-week rangefrom $443.63 to $866.16

52-week low / high$443.63 / $866.16

From 52w high-40.9%

Liquiditynot storeddays of average volume to fill 1% of float

Forecast

Stored scenarios from the last pipeline run. The model that wrote them is named on each row; no forecast is generated when you look at this page.

Horizon	Ref	Bull high	Base range	Bear low	P10 → P90	P(up)	Confidence	Risk
1D 2026-10-23 17:35:23	511.59	524.38 +2.5%	506.47 → 516.71 -1.0% … +1.0%	498.80 -2.5%	501.36 → 521.82	52.0%	68 760 bars, blended vol 32%, score 55, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 31.6% ann. · 760 bars
5D 2026-10-23 17:35:23	511.59	537.17 +5.0%	501.36 → 521.82 -2.0% … +2.0%	491.13 -4.0%	496.24 → 532.05	52.0%	68 760 bars, blended vol 32%, score 55, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 31.6% ann. · 760 bars
1M 2026-10-23 17:35:23	511.59	562.75 +10.0%	496.24 → 532.05 -3.0% … +4.0%	465.55 -9.0%	475.78 → 552.52	52.0%	68 760 bars, blended vol 32%, score 55, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 31.6% ann. · 760 bars
3M 2026-10-23 17:35:23	511.59	596.00 +16.5%	480.89 → 549.96 -6.0% … +7.5%	434.85 -15.0%	450.20 → 580.65	52.0%	68 760 bars, blended vol 32%, score 55, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 31.6% ann. · 760 bars
6M 2026-10-23 17:35:23	511.59	634.37 +24.0%	473.22 → 565.31 -7.5% … +10.5%	404.16 -21.0%	427.18 → 611.35	52.0%	68 760 bars, blended vol 32%, score 55, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 31.6% ann. · 760 bars
12M 2026-10-23 17:35:23	511.59	690.65 +35.0%	447.64 → 588.33 -12.5% … +15.0%	358.11 -30.0%	396.48 → 652.28	52.0%	68 760 bars, blended vol 32%, score 55, coverage 100%%	MEDIUM HV 31.6% ann. · 760 bars

Bull case

If RSI mid-range — room to extend, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.

band +1.5% … +2.5% · 511.59 – 511.59

Base case

mildly positive

band -1.0% … +1.0% · 511.59 – 511.59

Bear case

Downside triggers: P/E 28.5× leaves no valuation buffer; momentum is fading. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.

band -2.5% … -1.0% · 511.59 – 511.59

Catalysts the model is watching

Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)
Street target implies 7.2%

Key risks & invalidation

Historic drawdown deeper than 45%
Binary event: 2026-10-23

Model assumptions

Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 31.6% annualised).
The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).
Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.
Index regime assumed: sideways.
Close below the 598.89 support band or the strategy stop.
Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.
Volatility expanding beyond 51% annualised invalidates position sizing.
Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change).

Reference price 511.59 at 2026-10-23 17:35:23 · regime at generation sideways · data demo · freshness 0s. These bands are conditional distributions from stored inputs, not advice or a promise about outcomes.

Fundamentals

Latest stored period · FY2026 · filed 2026-12-31

snapshot JSON

Revenue$419BYoY +11.1%

EPS (TTM)18.13growth +11.9%

Net income$99.1B

Free cash flow$81.7Bmargin 18.4%

Gross margin56.7%

Operating margin26.4%

ROE6.2%

ROIC12.2%

Debt / equity0.15

Current ratio1.40

Interest cover2.21×

Net debt$145B

P/E28.46×

P/E forward25.55×

PEG2.50

P/S · P/B · EV/EBITDA6.73 · 1.78 · 19.63

Dividend yield0.39%payout 52%

Buyback yield2.96%

Profit margin23.7%

Cash$60.1B

Stored periods (raw rows, newest first)

Period	Revenue	Revenue YoY	EPS	Gross margin	Op margin	FCF margin	ROE	Filed
FY2026 FY	$419B	+11.1%	18.13	56.7%	26.4%	18.4%	6.2%	2026-12-31
FY2025 FY	$378B	+10.2%	16.35	49.7%	25.9%	23.3%	2.9%	2025-12-31
FY2024 FY	$330B	+12.7%	14.28	45.6%	23.9%	16.7%	11.1%	2024-12-31
FY2023 FY	$297B	+10.5%	12.83	47.6%	26.2%	17.2%	20.4%	2023-12-31
Q4 2026 Q	$74.1B	+10.5%	3.21	47.6%	26.2%	17.2%	20.4%	2026-07-01

Earnings and estimates

Next stored report 2026-12-10 · 0 day(s) away

Implied move8.5%from the stored option chain

EPS estimate4.88

Revenue estimate$105B

Consensus index61.7stored on 0–100 in the snapshot; higher = more constructive

% buy ratingsnot storednull on this row — the snapshot job did not store it

Target upsidenot stored

Gap risk0.53%median overnight gap

Time of daybmo

Report	EPS est	EPS actual	Surprise	Rev est	Rev actual	Guidance	Source
2026-12-10	4.88	not stored	not stored	$105B	not stored	none	synthetic_demo
2026-10-23	4.86	not stored	not stored	$105B	not stored	none	synthetic_demo
2026-07-19	4.27	4.34	+1.7%	$105B	$107B	maintain	synthetic_demo
2026-06-01	4.83	4.93	+2.2%	$105B	$107B	raise	synthetic_demo
2026-04-14	4.48	4.79	+6.9%	$105B	$104B	lower	synthetic_demo
2026-02-25	4.81	4.45	-7.4%	$105B	$102B	lower	synthetic_demo
2026-01-08	4.57	4.48	-1.9%	$105B	$107B	maintain	synthetic_demo
2025-11-21	4.96	5.32	+7.2%	$105B	$110B	raise	synthetic_demo

As of	Horizon	EPS avg	EPS high	EPS low	Revenue	Analysts	90d revisions
2026-10-23	FY1	21.40	22.29	17.81	$436B	29	7 / 2
2026-10-23	FY2	19.04	19.17	18.45	$423B	29	0 / 7
2026-10-23	Q1	5.37	5.66	4.08	$107B	27	1 / 9
2026-10-23	Q2	5.29	5.98	5.26	$110B	26	0 / 0

Analyst actions

Stored rating changes and targets. The consensus numbers are the same ones the sentiment component read.

Date	Firm	Action	From	To	Target	Consensus	% buy
2026-10-15	Halcyon Partners	initiated	Neutral	Neutral	$513.55	2.40	62%
2026-09-04	Halcyon Partners	upgrade	Hold	Hold	$450.27	2.40	60%
2026-07-08	Northgate Securities	upgrade	Hold	Sell	$544.16	2.40	42%
2026-05-19	Meridian Research	maintained	Neutral	Neutral	$648.47	2.40	45%
2026-04-11	Blue Harbor Capital Research	maintained	Sell	Sell	$585.27	2.40	61%

Ownership, insiders and short interest

Inst. position change-60.1%reported change vs the prior stored quarter

Net insider (USD)not stored

Short % of float7.3%

Days to cover13.7

Period end	Holder	Type	Shares	Value	% float	Change
2026-09-01	BlackRock Fund Advisors	fund	276M	$141B	8.1%	not stored
2026-09-01	BlackRock Fund Advisors	fund	276M	$141B	8.1%	not stored
2026-09-01	BlackRock Fund Advisors	fund	276M	$141B	8.1%	not stored
2026-09-01	BlackRock Fund Advisors	fund	276M	$141B	8.1%	not stored
2026-09-01	BlackRock Fund Advisors	fund	276M	$141B	8.1%	not stored
2026-09-01	Fidelity Concord	fund	225M	$115B	6.6%	not stored
2026-09-01	Fidelity Concord	fund	225M	$115B	6.6%	not stored
2026-09-01	Fidelity Concord	fund	225M	$115B	6.6%	not stored

Trade date	Owner	Title	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
2026-05-29	Demo Officer EB78B2	General Counsel	Buy - Open Market	226k	$553.68	$115M	7.72M
2026-04-20	Demo Officer BACF4E	General Counsel	Sale - Open Market	58.6k	$444.75	$30.0M	666k
2026-02-25	Demo Officer F125AD	Director	Option Exercise (option)	223k	$485.95	$114M	1.75M

Options

No chain stored for this symbol

Full chain Flow

No option chain stored.

Chains are only stored for symbols the options job covers, and only for the expiry it snapshots.

Open the flow page for a symbol that has data, or run the options ingestion.

News mentioning ECL

Stored headlines linked to this security, newest first. Sentiment scores come from the stored scorer, not from this page.

No stored headline mentions this symbol.

Score

qm_ai_scores row #860

55.1

composite / 100 · model score-1.0.0

NEUTRAL risk MEDIUM confidence 63

Technical 25 51.1

Fundamental 25 60.1

Momentum 15 38.5

Sentiment 10 65.3

Institutional 10 30.2

Risk 15 80.0

Why the model scored it this way

SENTIMENT Analyst Distribution 100
108% Buy/Strong Buy · 0% Hold · 0% Sell/Short
RISK Liquidity 96
Average $31053.6M traded per session
RISK Correlation 95
Correlation to benchmark 0.63-year rolling: 0.37
SENTIMENT Sentiment Delta 95
30-day sentiment change 46.5 pts
RISK Gap Risk 95
Median overnight gap 0.53% — position sizing must survive opens
RISK Beta 90
Beta 0.62 vs the reference index
SENTIMENT Estimate Revisions 10
Net EPS estimate revisions (90d): -10
TECHNICAL Macd Signal 15
MACD(12,26,9) bearish, histogram -0.209
RISK Market Risk 85
Benchmark volatility 20.1% · regime: Sideways · normal vol · risk-off
FUNDAMENTAL Leverage 80
Debt/Equity 0.15
FUNDAMENTAL Free Cash Flow 79
FCF margin 18.4%
FUNDAMENTAL Operating Margin 79
Operating margin 26.4%
RISK Sector Risk 78
Sector average volatility 29.7%
MOMENTUM Relative Strength Vs Index 22
3-month return minus index -17.2%

Scored on synthetic demonstration data. Directionally realistic, not a forecast of any real market.

Levels

Stored support/resistance from the snapshot row, not drawn from the chart in the browser.

Resistance (stored): $524.00
Support (stored): $461.96
20-day SMA: $510.52
50-day SMA: $496.13
200-day SMA: $598.89
Trend: up
Above SMA50 / SMA200: yes / no
From 52w high: -40.9%
MACD histogram: -0.209
RSI(14): 52.1
Relative strength (3m): -17.2%
RS rank: not stored /100

Sentiment

Stored buckets (each row is one scoring run over the news window).

Bucket start	Score	Label	Mentions	Method
2026-10-20 13:00	+47%	positive	16	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-20 14:00	+47%	positive	16	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-20 16:00	+47%	positive	16	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-20 17:00	+47%	positive	16	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 13:00	+2%	neutral	11	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 14:00	+2%	neutral	11	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 16:00	+2%	neutral	11	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 17:00	+2%	neutral	11	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment

Catalysts and risks

Stored catalysts

Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)
Street target implies 7.2%

Stored risks

Historic drawdown deeper than 45%
Binary event: 2026-10-23

Same sector

Ranked by stored composite score.

Symbol	Price	1d	Score	Stance
SHW	$81.28	-0.41%	58.7	CONSTRUCTIVE
FCX	$516.41	-1.45%	56.7	NEUTRAL
XLB	$108.00	-1.05%	54.9	NEUTRAL
NEM	$142.70	+1.65%	53.4	NEUTRAL
LIN	$422.89	-1.59%	51.6	NEUTRAL

Validation

Forecasts on this symbol whose horizon has matured, scored against the stored bars.

All models

Nothing to score yet: settle the matured forecasts with php bin/pipeline.php --cmd=settle and this table fills with realised-versus-forecast rows.

Peer comparison

Symbol	Price	1d	Cap	P/E	PEG	P/S	P/B	Rev growth	EPS growth	ROE	Gross	Op margin
FCX	$516.41	-1.45%	$2.58T	21.88×	1.74	4.54×	1.32×	+13.4%	+12.1%	6.0%	41.7%	22.3%
LIN	$422.89	-1.59%	$2.08T	32.11×	6.65	6.59×	3.87×	+4.2%	+5.2%	12.0%	48.3%	24.3%
NEM	$142.70	+1.65%	$586B	33.61×	6.09	7.58×	5.80×	+6.2%	+6.6%	17.3%	46.6%	25.1%
SHW	$81.28	-0.41%	$304B	27.90×	3.17	8.53×	5.40×	+8.9%	+8.5%	19.4%	59.9%	35.9%

What this page did not do.

It did not fetch a quote, call an external model, or extend the chart. It read 156000 stored bar rows in total across the universe (demo data, last trade 2026-10-23), and the score shown here was written at 2026-10-23 17:35 by model score-1.0.0.