Netflix Inc.

NFLX DETERIORATING MEDIUM EQUITY DEMO

$214.07 -6.25% 1-day change from the stored snapshot · 27 hours ago

DEMO DATASET last stored bar 2026-10-23 · scores computed 2026-10-23 17:35:22 · every figure below is read from these rows, nothing is computed in the browser

Price · stored daily bars

126 bars ending 2026-10-23 · demo data

Indicators are computed from the same stored closes the score used; the forecast fan is drawn from qm_predictions, not from a live model call. how this is drawn

Open$225.85

Day range$227.56 / $209.92

Prev close$228.35

Volume23.7M

RVOL 30d1.42×session volume over stored 30-day average

Avg $ volume$4.24B

Market cap$432B

HV2077.9% ann.

Beta1.15

RSI(14)33.4

ATR %10.39%

Max drawdown-61.4%

52-week rangefrom $195.52 to $382.46

52-week low / high$195.52 / $382.46

From 52w high-44.0%

Liquiditynot storeddays of average volume to fill 1% of float

Forecast

Stored scenarios from the last pipeline run. The model that wrote them is named on each row; no forecast is generated when you look at this page.

Horizon	Ref	Bull high	Base range	Bear low	P10 → P90	P(up)	Confidence	Risk
1D 2026-10-23 17:35:22	214.07	235.48 +10.0%	205.51 → 222.63 -4.0% … +4.0%	192.66 -10.0%	196.94 → 230.13	49.0%	67 760 bars, blended vol 66%, score 47, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 65.9% ann. · 760 bars
5D 2026-10-23 17:35:22	214.07	250.46 +17.0%	199.09 → 229.05 -7.0% … +7.0%	175.54 -18.0%	184.10 → 241.90	49.0%	67 760 bars, blended vol 66%, score 47, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 65.9% ann. · 760 bars
1M 2026-10-23 17:35:22	214.07	288.99 +35.0%	181.96 → 244.04 -15.0% … +14.0%	137.00 -36.0%	154.13 → 271.87	49.0%	67 760 bars, blended vol 66%, score 47, coverage 100%%	MEDIUM HV 65.9% ann. · 760 bars
3M 2026-10-23 17:35:22	214.07	345.72 +61.5%	156.27 → 265.45 -27.0% … +24.0%	79.21 -63.0%	108.11 → 316.82	49.0%	67 760 bars, blended vol 66%, score 47, coverage 100%%	HIGH HV 65.9% ann. · 760 bars
6M 2026-10-23 17:35:22	214.07	400.31 +87.0%	133.79 → 287.92 -37.5% … +34.5%	24.62 -88.5%	63.15 → 358.57	49.0%	67 760 bars, blended vol 66%, score 47, coverage 100%%	VERY_HIGH HV 65.9% ann. · 760 bars
12M 2026-10-23 17:35:22	214.07	476.31 +122.5%	101.68 → 321.11 -52.5% … +50.0%	-53.52 -125.0%	5.35 → 417.44	49.0%	67 760 bars, blended vol 66%, score 47, coverage 100%%	VERY_HIGH HV 65.9% ann. · 760 bars

Bull case

If a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.

band +5.0% … +10.0% · 214.07 – 214.07

Base case

mildly positive

band -4.0% … +4.0% · 214.07 – 214.07

Bear case

Downside triggers: P/E 46.6× leaves no valuation buffer; realised volatility already elevated; momentum is fading. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.

band -10.0% … -5.0% · 214.07 – 214.07

Catalysts the model is watching

Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)
Demo synthetic: NFLX faces second request in pending acquisition
Demo synthetic: NFLX announces platform refresh for enterprise buyers
Street target implies 10.9%

Key risks & invalidation

Elevated realised volatility (77.9%)
Historic drawdown deeper than 61%
Binary event: 2026-10-23
P/E 46.6× — multiple compression risk

Model assumptions

Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 65.9% annualised).
The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).
Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.
Index regime assumed: sideways.
Close below the 269.77 support band or the strategy stop.
Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.
Volatility expanding beyond 105% annualised invalidates position sizing.
Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change).

Reference price 214.07 at 2026-10-23 17:35:22 · regime at generation sideways · data demo · freshness 0s. These bands are conditional distributions from stored inputs, not advice or a promise about outcomes.

Fundamentals

Latest stored period · FY2026 · filed 2026-12-31

snapshot JSON

Revenue$107BYoY +30.6%

EPS (TTM)4.55growth +41.7%

Net income$9.18B

Free cash flow$9.91Bmargin 9.5%

Gross margin18.4%

Operating margin8.6%

ROE8.9%

ROIC7.9%

Debt / equity0.26

Current ratio1.36

Interest cover4.25×

Net debt$16.2B

P/E46.56×

P/E forward35.70×

PEG1.53

P/S · P/B · EV/EBITDA3.99 · 4.14 · 32.11

Dividend yield0.18%payout 12%

Buyback yield-0.61%

Profit margin8.6%

Cash$20.8B

Stored periods (raw rows, newest first)

Period	Revenue	Revenue YoY	EPS	Gross margin	Op margin	FCF margin	ROE	Filed
FY2026 FY	$107B	+30.6%	4.55	18.4%	8.6%	9.5%	8.9%	2026-12-31
FY2025 FY	$80.6B	+30.2%	3.42	20.1%	9.5%	10.2%	2.0%	2025-12-31
FY2024 FY	$62.5B	+31.1%	2.66	19.8%	9.5%	8.6%	3.7%	2024-12-31
FY2023 FY	$48.5B	+31.0%	2.06	16.5%	9.3%	6.8%	5.1%	2023-12-31
Q4 2026 Q	$12.1B	+31.0%	0.51	16.5%	9.3%	6.8%	5.1%	2026-07-01

Earnings and estimates

Next stored report 2026-12-10 · 0 day(s) away

Implied move5.6%from the stored option chain

EPS estimate1.23

Revenue estimate$26.8B

Consensus index60.8stored on 0–100 in the snapshot; higher = more constructive

% buy ratingsnot storednull on this row — the snapshot job did not store it

Target upsidenot stored

Gap risk1.04%median overnight gap

Time of dayamc

Report	EPS est	EPS actual	Surprise	Rev est	Rev actual	Guidance	Source
2026-12-10	1.23	not stored	not stored	$26.8B	not stored	none	synthetic_demo
2026-10-23	1.23	not stored	not stored	$26.8B	not stored	none	synthetic_demo
2026-07-19	1.11	1.23	+10.8%	$26.8B	$27.5B	raise	synthetic_demo
2026-06-01	1.20	1.11	-7.4%	$26.8B	$26.6B	raise	synthetic_demo
2026-04-14	1.09	1.10	+0.9%	$26.8B	$27.7B	maintain	synthetic_demo
2026-02-25	1.17	1.26	+7.3%	$26.8B	$26.6B	raise	synthetic_demo
2026-01-08	1.16	1.17	+1.4%	$26.8B	$27.1B	lower	synthetic_demo
2025-11-21	1.18	1.36	+15.3%	$26.8B	$27.9B	maintain	synthetic_demo

As of	Horizon	EPS avg	EPS high	EPS low	Revenue	Analysts	90d revisions
2026-10-23	FY1	5.18	6.03	5.04	$115B	28	10 / 5
2026-10-23	FY2	5.28	6.09	4.91	$113B	25	0 / 3
2026-10-23	Q1	1.28	1.38	1.16	$28.5B	16	11 / 8
2026-10-23	Q2	1.31	1.50	1.16	$27.6B	21	5 / 7

Analyst actions

Stored rating changes and targets. The consensus numbers are the same ones the sentiment component read.

Date	Firm	Action	From	To	Target	Consensus	% buy
2026-10-13	Northgate Securities	initiated	Outperform	Outperform	$222.14	3.90	16%
2026-08-29	Kestrel Analytics	initiated	Buy	Buy	$244.07	3.90	30%
2026-07-21	Northgate Securities	upgrade	Hold	Outperform	$249.10	3.90	24%
2026-05-26	Kestrel Analytics	maintained	Neutral	Neutral	$250.24	3.90	21%
2026-04-12	Blue Harbor Capital Research	initiated	Buy	Buy	$221.74	3.90	23%

Ownership, insiders and short interest

Inst. position change-81.7%reported change vs the prior stored quarter

Net insider (USD)$0.00

Short % of float11.9%

Days to cover24.9

Period end	Holder	Type	Shares	Value	% float	Change
2026-09-01	BlackRock Fund Advisors	fund	53.2M	$11.4B	4.3%	not stored
2026-09-01	BlackRock Fund Advisors	fund	53.2M	$11.4B	4.3%	not stored
2026-09-01	BlackRock Fund Advisors	fund	53.2M	$11.4B	4.3%	not stored
2026-09-01	BlackRock Fund Advisors	fund	53.2M	$11.4B	4.3%	not stored
2026-09-01	BlackRock Fund Advisors	fund	53.2M	$11.4B	4.3%	not stored
2026-09-01	Fidelity Concord	fund	39.7M	$8.49B	3.2%	not stored
2026-09-01	Fidelity Concord	fund	39.7M	$8.49B	3.2%	not stored
2026-09-01	Fidelity Concord	fund	39.7M	$8.49B	3.2%	not stored

Trade date	Owner	Title	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
2026-08-11	Demo Officer 3ABD18	Chief Financial Officer	Grant	16.5k	$199.72	$3.54M	158k

Options

Stored chain for expiry 2026-11-06 · 9 call / 9 put strikes

Full chain Flow

Strikes stored189 calls / 9 puts on this expiry

Chain volume71.5kcontracts across all listed strikes

Chain open interest440k

Chain IV (mean)56.9%the column stores a fraction; ×100 for display

Put/call volume1.117from the daily aggregate row for 2026-10-23

Call / put volume39.3k / 43.9k

IV3050.1%stored as a fraction

HV3048.9%realised 30-day vol

IV rank35.6 /100

OI change+6.0%percent, as stored

Expiries stored4

Chain as of2026-10-23 17:35

When	Expiry	Strike	Right	Contracts	Premium	Unusual	Context
2026-10-19 13:46	2026-11-13	$222.50	CALL	353k	$2.27M	5.45	volume ≫ open interest (new positioning)
2026-10-19 14:25	2026-11-13	$222.50	CALL	353k	$2.27M	5.45	volume ≫ open interest (new positioning)
2026-10-19 16:05	2026-11-13	$222.50	CALL	353k	$2.27M	5.45	volume ≫ open interest (new positioning)
2026-10-19 16:58	2026-11-13	$222.50	CALL	353k	$2.27M	5.45	volume ≫ open interest (new positioning)
2026-10-19 17:35	2026-11-13	$222.50	CALL	353k	$2.27M	5.45	volume ≫ open interest (new positioning)
2026-10-21 13:46	2026-11-11	$207.50	PUT	52.6k	$338k	3.33	sweep across exchanges
2026-10-21 14:25	2026-11-11	$207.50	PUT	52.6k	$338k	3.33	sweep across exchanges
2026-10-21 16:05	2026-11-11	$207.50	PUT	52.6k	$338k	3.33	sweep across exchanges
2026-10-21 16:58	2026-11-11	$207.50	PUT	52.6k	$338k	3.33	sweep across exchanges
2026-10-21 17:35	2026-11-11	$207.50	PUT	52.6k	$338k	3.33	sweep across exchanges

Flow rows are stored observations of size, not information about who traded. The flagged note on each row says so; nothing here implies insider activity.

News mentioning NFLX

Stored headlines linked to this security, newest first. Sentiment scores come from the stored scorer, not from this page.

Demo synthetic: NFLX faces second request in pending acquisition

regulatory 11 days ago -80% sentiment importance 0

Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.

Demo synthetic: NFLX announces platform refresh for enterprise buyers

product 20 days ago +41% sentiment importance 0

Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.

Score

qm_ai_scores row #793

47.1

composite / 100 · model score-1.0.0

DETERIORATING risk MEDIUM confidence 62

Technical 25 36.7

Fundamental 25 49.9

Momentum 15 28.7

Sentiment 10 61.6

Institutional 10 38.3

Risk 15 74.2

Why the model scored it this way

RISK Beta 96
Beta 1.15 vs the reference index
RISK Liquidity 96
Average $4243.8M traded per session
SENTIMENT Sentiment Delta 95
30-day sentiment change 31.4 pts
RISK Gap Risk 95
Median overnight gap 1.04% — position sizing must survive opens
RISK Correlation 94
Correlation to benchmark 0.63-year rolling: 0.42
TECHNICAL Trend Structure 14
Price vs 20/50/200-day moving averages: strong down
RISK Market Risk 85
Benchmark volatility 20.1% · regime: Sideways · normal vol · risk-off
INSTITUTIONAL Institutional Flows 22
Reported 13F-style positioning change -81.7% vs prior quarter2026-09-01
FUNDAMENTAL Leverage 77
Debt/Equity 0.26
MOMENTUM Volume Acceleration 25
Today -6.3% on 1.4× volume
SENTIMENT Analyst Consensus 26
Analyst consensus score 3.9 (1=Strong Buy, 5=Sell) across 5 ratings
FUNDAMENTAL Valuation Ebitda 26
EV/EBITDA 32.1×
MOMENTUM Multi Horizon Performance 27
1M -10.1% · 3M -4.9% · 6M -23% · 12M -26%
RISK Sector Risk 73
Sector average volatility 35.6%

Scored on synthetic demonstration data. Directionally realistic, not a forecast of any real market.

Category ranks

Position among scored securities in each evidence category.

Category	Score	Rank	Evidence
HIGH_RISK	77.9	1	Volatility 77.9% / ATR 10.4% of price — expected move per bar is large
HIGH_RISK	77.9	1	Volatility 77.9% / ATR 10.4% of price — expected move per bar is large
HIGH_RISK	77.9	1	Volatility 77.9% / ATR 10.4% of price — expected move per bar is large
HIGH_RISK	77.9	1	Volatility 77.9% / ATR 10.4% of price — expected move per bar is large
HIGH_RISK	77.9	1	Volatility 77.9% / ATR 10.4% of price — expected move per bar is large
GROWTH	72.3	2	Revenue 30.6% / EPS 41.7% growth
GROWTH	72.3	2	Revenue 30.6% / EPS 41.7% growth
GROWTH	72.3	2	Revenue 30.6% / EPS 41.7% growth
GROWTH	72.3	2	Revenue 30.6% / EPS 41.7% growth
GROWTH	72.3	2	Revenue 30.6% / EPS 41.7% growth
EVENT_DRIVEN	62.0	3	Dated/observable catalyst: unusual options activity (1 flagged)
EVENT_DRIVEN	62.0	3	Dated/observable catalyst: unusual options activity (4 flagged)
EVENT_DRIVEN	62.0	3	Dated/observable catalyst: unusual options activity (2 flagged)
EVENT_DRIVEN	62.0	3	Dated/observable catalyst: unusual options activity (5 flagged)
EVENT_DRIVEN	62.0	3	Dated/observable catalyst: unusual options activity (3 flagged)

Levels

Stored support/resistance from the snapshot row, not drawn from the chart in the browser.

Resistance (stored): $247.69
Support (stored): $225.58
20-day SMA: $262.52
50-day SMA: $255.63
200-day SMA: $269.77
Trend: strong_down
Above SMA50 / SMA200: no / no
From 52w high: -44.0%
MACD histogram: -7.785
RSI(14): 33.4
Relative strength (3m): -9.2%
RS rank: not stored /100

Sentiment

Stored buckets (each row is one scoring run over the news window).

Bucket start	Score	Label	Mentions	Method
2026-10-20 13:00	+33%	positive	46	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-20 14:00	+33%	positive	46	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-20 16:00	+33%	positive	46	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-20 17:00	+33%	positive	46	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 13:00	+15%	neutral	35	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 14:00	+15%	neutral	35	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 16:00	+15%	neutral	35	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 17:00	+15%	neutral	35	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment

Catalysts and risks

Stored catalysts

Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)
Demo synthetic: NFLX faces second request in pending acquisition
Demo synthetic: NFLX announces platform refresh for enterprise buyers
Street target implies 10.9%

Stored risks

Elevated realised volatility (77.9%)
Historic drawdown deeper than 61%
Binary event: 2026-10-23
P/E 46.6× — multiple compression risk

Same sector

Ranked by stored composite score.

Symbol	Price	1d	Score	Stance
CMCSA	$482.06	-0.56%	64.3	CONSTRUCTIVE
GOOGL	$170.83	+0.68%	61.9	CONSTRUCTIVE
TMUS	$119.14	-1.79%	61.2	CONSTRUCTIVE
VZ	$184.82	-1.27%	60.2	CONSTRUCTIVE
DIS	$123.39	-1.89%	54.0	NEUTRAL
META	$40.06	-2.07%	51.5	NEUTRAL

Validation

Forecasts on this symbol whose horizon has matured, scored against the stored bars.

All models

Nothing to score yet: settle the matured forecasts with php bin/pipeline.php --cmd=settle and this table fills with realised-versus-forecast rows.

Peer comparison

Symbol	Price	1d	Cap	P/E	PEG	P/S	P/B	Rev growth	EPS growth	ROE	Gross	Op margin
TMUS	$119.14	-1.79%	$541B	26.19×	5.19	6.17×	6.32×	+5.2%	+6.4%	24.1%	49.3%	25.0%
VZ	$184.82	-1.27%	$159B	7.29×	not stored	1.03×	1.86×	-2.4%	-3.1%	25.5%	30.6%	15.8%
DIS	$123.39	-1.89%	$120B	10.27×	14.34	1.39×	1.01×	+0.5%	+0.9%	9.8%	30.2%	14.6%
GOOGL	$170.83	+0.68%	$770B	20.51×	1.60	5.10×	4.72×	+13.8%	+16.0%	23.0%	57.6%	26.7%
META	$40.06	-2.07%	$74.0B	56.01×	2.98	8.64×	1.65×	+20.1%	+21.2%	2.9%	36.1%	15.5%
CMCSA	$482.06	-0.56%	$2.76T	31.74×	2.69	8.49×	5.63×	+11.5%	+13.9%	17.7%	58.8%	31.0%

What this page did not do.

It did not fetch a quote, call an external model, or extend the chart. It read 156000 stored bar rows in total across the universe (demo data, last trade 2026-10-23), and the score shown here was written at 2026-10-23 17:35 by model score-1.0.0.