Chipotle Mexican Grill

CMG NEUTRAL MEDIUM EQUITY DEMO

$386.49 -2.54% 1-day change from the stored snapshot · 27 hours ago

DEMO DATASET last stored bar 2026-10-23 · scores computed 2026-10-23 17:35:22 · every figure below is read from these rows, nothing is computed in the browser

Price · stored daily bars

126 bars ending 2026-10-23 · demo data

Indicators are computed from the same stored closes the score used; the forecast fan is drawn from qm_predictions, not from a live model call. how this is drawn

Open$397.41

Day range$400.18 / $384.07

Prev close$396.58

Volume37.5M

RVOL 30d1.31×session volume over stored 30-day average

Avg $ volume$10.5B

Market cap$1.79T

HV2027.1% ann.

Beta0.56

RSI(14)60.2

ATR %2.95%

Max drawdown-50.5%

52-week rangefrom $318.18 to $668.30

52-week low / high$318.18 / $668.30

From 52w high-42.2%

Liquiditynot storeddays of average volume to fill 1% of float

Forecast

Stored scenarios from the last pipeline run. The model that wrote them is named on each row; no forecast is generated when you look at this page.

Horizon	Ref	Bull high	Base range	Bear low	P10 → P90	P(up)	Confidence	Risk
1D 2026-10-23 17:35:22	386.49	394.22 +2.0%	384.56 → 390.35 -0.5% … +1.0%	378.76 -2.0%	380.69 → 392.29	53.0%	68 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 57, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 26.1% ann. · 760 bars
5D 2026-10-23 17:35:22	386.49	401.95 +4.0%	382.63 → 394.22 -1.0% … +2.0%	374.90 -3.0%	378.76 → 398.08	54.0%	68 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 57, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 26.1% ann. · 760 bars
1M 2026-10-23 17:35:22	386.49	413.54 +7.0%	378.76 → 398.08 -2.0% … +3.0%	363.30 -6.0%	367.17 → 409.68	54.0%	68 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 57, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 26.1% ann. · 760 bars
3M 2026-10-23 17:35:22	386.49	438.67 +13.5%	369.10 → 409.68 -4.5% … +6.0%	345.91 -10.5%	351.71 → 427.07	54.0%	68 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 57, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 26.1% ann. · 760 bars
6M 2026-10-23 17:35:22	386.49	456.06 +18.0%	363.30 → 421.27 -6.0% … +9.0%	328.52 -15.0%	340.11 → 444.46	54.0%	68 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 57, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 26.1% ann. · 760 bars
12M 2026-10-23 17:35:22	386.49	483.11 +25.0%	357.50 → 434.80 -7.5% … +12.5%	299.53 -22.5%	318.85 → 463.79	54.0%	68 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 57, coverage 100%%	MEDIUM HV 26.1% ann. · 760 bars

Bull case

If RSI mid-range — room to extend, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.

band +1.0% … +2.0% · 386.49 – 386.49

Base case

mildly positive

band -0.5% … +1.0% · 386.49 – 386.49

Bear case

Downside triggers: a market-wide risk-off move alone can carry the 5–20th percentile band. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.

band -2.0% … -1.0% · 386.49 – 386.49

Catalysts the model is watching

Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)
Street target implies 5.7%

Key risks & invalidation

Historic drawdown deeper than 50%
Binary event: 2026-10-23

Model assumptions

Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 26.1% annualised).
The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).
Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.
Index regime assumed: sideways.
Close below the 471.78 support band or the strategy stop.
Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.
Volatility expanding beyond 42% annualised invalidates position sizing.
Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change).

Reference price 386.49 at 2026-10-23 17:35:22 · regime at generation sideways · data demo · freshness 0s. These bands are conditional distributions from stored inputs, not advice or a promise about outcomes.

Fundamentals

Latest stored period · FY2026 · filed 2026-12-31

snapshot JSON

Revenue$325BYoY +7.0%

EPS (TTM)16.28growth +6.9%

Net income$75.6B

Free cash flow$58.2Bmargin 17.9%

Gross margin47.5%

Operating margin25.3%

ROE5.4%

ROIC11.8%

Debt / equity2.27

Current ratio1.64

Interest cover27.50×

Net debt$106B

P/E23.99×

P/E forward22.42×

PEG3.43

P/S · P/B · EV/EBITDA5.58 · 1.30 · 16.54

Dividend yield0.86%payout 56%

Buyback yield2.97%

Profit margin23.2%

Cash$20.1B

Stored periods (raw rows, newest first)

Period	Revenue	Revenue YoY	EPS	Gross margin	Op margin	FCF margin	ROE	Filed
FY2026 FY	$325B	+7.0%	16.28	47.5%	25.3%	17.9%	5.4%	2026-12-31
FY2025 FY	$305B	+8.2%	15.24	50.5%	27.3%	24.4%	12.5%	2025-12-31
FY2024 FY	$281B	+5.8%	14.07	44.9%	27.5%	18.8%	26.5%	2024-12-31
FY2023 FY	$269B	+7.7%	13.45	48.4%	25.9%	25.4%	26.2%	2023-12-31
Q4 2026 Q	$67.2B	+7.7%	3.36	48.4%	25.9%	25.4%	26.2%	2026-07-01

Earnings and estimates

Next stored report 2026-12-10 · 0 day(s) away

Implied move8.1%from the stored option chain

EPS estimate4.37

Revenue estimate$81.3B

Consensus index51.7stored on 0–100 in the snapshot; higher = more constructive

% buy ratingsnot storednull on this row — the snapshot job did not store it

Target upsidenot stored

Gap risk0.41%median overnight gap

Time of daybmo

Report	EPS est	EPS actual	Surprise	Rev est	Rev actual	Guidance	Source
2026-12-10	4.37	not stored	not stored	$81.3B	not stored	none	synthetic_demo
2026-10-23	3.90	not stored	not stored	$81.3B	not stored	none	synthetic_demo
2026-07-19	4.19	4.49	+7.3%	$81.3B	$79.9B	raise	synthetic_demo
2026-06-01	4.46	4.19	-6.0%	$81.3B	$80.1B	raise	synthetic_demo
2026-04-14	3.88	4.23	+9.0%	$81.3B	$84.4B	raise	synthetic_demo
2026-02-25	4.02	4.16	+3.6%	$81.3B	$79.5B	raise	synthetic_demo
2026-01-08	4.02	3.73	-7.2%	$81.3B	$84.8B	maintain	synthetic_demo
2025-11-21	4.44	4.39	-1.3%	$81.3B	$83.7B	lower	synthetic_demo

As of	Horizon	EPS avg	EPS high	EPS low	Revenue	Analysts	90d revisions
2026-10-23	FY1	17.69	19.13	15.89	$346B	8	1 / 4
2026-10-23	FY2	18.30	20.48	16.65	$326B	30	9 / 7
2026-10-23	Q1	4.78	5.46	4.49	$86.1B	6	1 / 6
2026-10-23	Q2	4.80	5.48	3.87	$82.9B	6	4 / 9

Analyst actions

Stored rating changes and targets. The consensus numbers are the same ones the sentiment component read.

Date	Firm	Action	From	To	Target	Consensus	% buy
2026-10-12	Blue Harbor Capital Research	initiated	Hold	Hold	$491.53	1.40	70%
2026-09-02	Blue Harbor Capital Research	initiated	Hold	Hold	$352.83	1.40	70%
2026-07-16	Meridian Research	upgrade	Hold	Buy	$404.12	1.40	70%
2026-05-18	Northgate Securities	initiated	Hold	Hold	$345.79	1.40	68%
2026-04-13	Kestrel Analytics	maintained	Outperform	Outperform	$448.92	1.40	70%

Ownership, insiders and short interest

Inst. position change-68.1%reported change vs the prior stored quarter

Net insider (USD)not stored

Short % of float6.3%

Days to cover22.1

Period end	Holder	Type	Shares	Value	% float	Change
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	154M	$59.6B	5.4%	not stored
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	154M	$59.6B	5.4%	not stored
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	154M	$59.6B	5.4%	not stored
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	154M	$59.6B	5.4%	not stored
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	154M	$59.6B	5.4%	not stored
2026-09-01	State Street Global Advisors	fund	133M	$51.3B	4.6%	not stored
2026-09-01	State Street Global Advisors	fund	133M	$51.3B	4.6%	not stored
2026-09-01	State Street Global Advisors	fund	133M	$51.3B	4.6%	not stored

Dividends and splits

Ex-date	Pay date	Amount	Frequency	Yield at ex
2026-09-18	2026-10-06	$0.835	quarterly	0.86%
2026-06-12	2026-06-30	$0.838	quarterly	0.86%
2026-03-20	2026-04-07	$0.841	quarterly	0.86%
2025-11-28	2025-12-16	$0.845	quarterly	0.86%
2025-09-19	2025-10-07	$0.848	quarterly	0.86%
2025-06-13	2025-07-01	$0.851	quarterly	0.86%
2025-02-28	2025-03-18	$0.855	quarterly	0.86%
2024-11-29	2024-12-17	$0.858	quarterly	0.86%
2024-08-30	2024-09-17	$0.862	quarterly	0.86%

Nothing stored yet.

Options

No chain stored for this symbol

Full chain Flow

No option chain stored.

Chains are only stored for symbols the options job covers, and only for the expiry it snapshots.

Open the flow page for a symbol that has data, or run the options ingestion.

News mentioning CMG

Stored headlines linked to this security, newest first. Sentiment scores come from the stored scorer, not from this page.

No stored headline mentions this symbol.

Score

qm_ai_scores row #824

57.4

composite / 100 · model score-1.0.0

NEUTRAL risk MEDIUM confidence 63

Technical 25 60.5

Fundamental 25 59.8

Momentum 15 50.1

Sentiment 10 52.2

Institutional 10 31.0

Risk 15 76.4

Why the model scored it this way

SENTIMENT Analyst Distribution 100
132% Buy/Strong Buy · 0% Hold · 0% Sell/Short
RISK Liquidity 96
Average $10506.7M traded per session
SENTIMENT Sentiment Delta 5
30-day sentiment change -13.9 pts
RISK Gap Risk 95
Median overnight gap 0.41% — position sizing must survive opens
RISK Correlation 91
Correlation to benchmark 0.63-year rolling: 0.5
SENTIMENT Estimate Revisions 10
Net EPS estimate revisions (90d): -11
RISK Beta 89
Beta 0.56 vs the reference index
SENTIMENT Analyst Consensus 87
Analyst consensus score 1.4 (1=Strong Buy, 5=Sell) across 5 ratings
RISK Market Risk 85
Benchmark volatility 20.1% · regime: Sideways · normal vol · risk-off
TECHNICAL Trend Strength Adx 83
ADX(14) 37.7 — trending
FUNDAMENTAL Coverage 82
Interest coverage 27.5×
FUNDAMENTAL Free Cash Flow 78
FCF margin 17.9%
FUNDAMENTAL Operating Margin 78
Operating margin 25.3%
INSTITUTIONAL Institutional Flows 22
Reported 13F-style positioning change -68.1% vs prior quarter2026-09-01

Scored on synthetic demonstration data. Directionally realistic, not a forecast of any real market.

Category ranks

Position among scored securities in each evidence category.

Category	Score	Rank	Evidence
EVENT_DRIVEN	62.0	1	Dated/observable catalyst: unusual options activity (10 flagged)
EVENT_DRIVEN	62.0	1	Dated/observable catalyst: unusual options activity (6 flagged)
EVENT_DRIVEN	62.0	1	Dated/observable catalyst: unusual options activity (2 flagged)
EVENT_DRIVEN	62.0	1	Dated/observable catalyst: unusual options activity (8 flagged)
EVENT_DRIVEN	62.0	1	Dated/observable catalyst: unusual options activity (4 flagged)

Levels

Stored support/resistance from the snapshot row, not drawn from the chart in the browser.

Resistance (stored): $385.49
Support (stored): $380.18
20-day SMA: $376.95
50-day SMA: $351.78
200-day SMA: $471.78
Trend: up
Above SMA50 / SMA200: yes / no
From 52w high: -42.2%
MACD histogram: 0.357
RSI(14): 60.2
Relative strength (3m): +0.9%
RS rank: not stored /100

Sentiment

Stored buckets (each row is one scoring run over the news window).

Bucket start	Score	Label	Mentions	Method
2026-10-20 13:00	-10%	neutral	25	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-20 14:00	-10%	neutral	25	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-20 16:00	-10%	neutral	25	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-20 17:00	-10%	neutral	25	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 13:00	+16%	neutral	17	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 14:00	+16%	neutral	17	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 16:00	+16%	neutral	17	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 17:00	+16%	neutral	17	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment

Catalysts and risks

Stored catalysts

Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)
Street target implies 5.7%

Stored risks

Historic drawdown deeper than 50%
Binary event: 2026-10-23

Same sector

Ranked by stored composite score.

Symbol	Price	1d	Score	Stance
BKNG	$188.18	-2.25%	65.5	ACCUMULATE
NKE	$43.52	-1.59%	62.6	CONSTRUCTIVE
TSLA	$319.16	-6.19%	61.4	CONSTRUCTIVE
HD	$246.33	+0.28%	61.1	CONSTRUCTIVE
MCD	$106.31	-1.37%	57.8	NEUTRAL
XLY	$168.00	-1.60%	56.2	NEUTRAL

Validation

Forecasts on this symbol whose horizon has matured, scored against the stored bars.

All models

Nothing to score yet: settle the matured forecasts with php bin/pipeline.php --cmd=settle and this table fills with realised-versus-forecast rows.

Peer comparison

Symbol	Price	1d	Cap	P/E	PEG	P/S	P/B	Rev growth	EPS growth	ROE	Gross	Op margin
HD	$246.33	+0.28%	$1.08T	26.30×	1.91	8.51×	3.97×	+13.6%	+15.2%	15.1%	75.6%	37.7%
BKNG	$188.18	-2.25%	$923B	22.07×	3.89	4.15×	1.26×	+4.7%	+5.7%	5.7%	40.1%	19.8%
SBUX	$202.51	+0.80%	$885B	20.41×	2.41	6.65×	2.60×	+9.1%	+11.6%	12.7%	62.3%	36.4%
UBER	$368.46	-4.37%	$853B	41.51×	2.22	6.07×	2.76×	+17.4%	+17.6%	6.6%	31.8%	16.2%
AMZN	$147.66	-1.57%	$624B	24.38×	3.31	7.50×	6.27×	+6.1%	+9.8%	25.7%	64.3%	35.2%
TSLA	$319.16	-6.19%	$606B	52.70×	1.63	2.53×	5.32×	+31.9%	+30.6%	10.1%	10.8%	5.6%
MCD	$106.31	-1.37%	$448B	29.00×	2.37	6.80×	4.48×	+12.3%	+11.1%	15.5%	52.9%	26.4%
NKE	$43.52	-1.59%	$39.9B	7.24×	7.12	0.86×	4.43×	+2.3%	+1.4%	61.2%	23.0%	13.5%

What this page did not do.

It did not fetch a quote, call an external model, or extend the chart. It read 156000 stored bar rows in total across the universe (demo data, last trade 2026-10-23), and the score shown here was written at 2026-10-23 17:35 by model score-1.0.0.