Bull case
If RSI mid-range — room to extend, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.
band +1.0% … +2.0% · 106.31 – 106.31
McDonald's Corp.
MCD NEUTRAL MEDIUM EQUITY DEMO
$106.31
-1.37%
1-day change from the stored snapshot · 27 hours ago
DEMO DATASET last stored bar 2026-10-23 · scores computed 2026-10-23 17:35:22 · every figure below is read from these rows, nothing is computed in the browser
Price · stored daily bars
126 bars ending 2026-10-23 · demo data
Indicators are computed from the same stored closes the score used; the forecast fan is drawn from qm_predictions, not from a live model call.
how this is drawn
Open$108.91
Day range$109.83 / $105.28
Prev close$107.79
Volume24.8M
RVOL 30d1.19×session volume over stored 30-day average
Avg $ volume$2.16B
Market cap$448B
HV2026.3% ann.
Beta0.52
RSI(14)57.7
ATR %3.10%
Max drawdown-36.3%
52-week rangefrom $95.23 to $156.07
52-week low / high$95.23 / $156.07
From 52w high-31.9%
Liquiditynot storeddays of average volume to fill 1% of float
Forecast
Stored scenarios from the last pipeline run. The model that wrote them is named on each row; no forecast is generated when you look at this page.
| Horizon | Ref | Bull high | Base range | Bear low | P10 → P90 | P(up) | Confidence | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D
2026-10-23 17:35:22 |
106.31 | 108.44 +2.0% | 105.78 → 107.37 -0.5% … +1.0% |
104.72 -1.5% | 105.25 → 107.90 | 53.0% | 68 760 bars, blended vol 23%, score 58, coverage 100%% |
LOW
HV 23.3% ann. · 760 bars |
| 5D
2026-10-23 17:35:22 |
106.31 | 109.50 +3.0% | 105.25 → 107.37 -1.0% … +1.0% |
103.12 -3.0% | 104.18 → 109.50 | 54.0% | 68 760 bars, blended vol 23%, score 58, coverage 100%% |
LOW
HV 23.3% ann. · 760 bars |
| 1M
2026-10-23 17:35:22 |
106.31 | 113.75 +7.0% | 104.18 → 109.50 -2.0% … +3.0% |
99.93 -6.0% | 102.06 → 111.63 | 54.0% | 68 760 bars, blended vol 23%, score 58, coverage 100%% |
LOW
HV 23.3% ann. · 760 bars |
| 3M
2026-10-23 17:35:22 |
106.31 | 119.07 +12.0% | 103.12 → 111.09 -3.0% … +4.5% |
96.74 -9.0% | 98.34 → 115.88 | 54.0% | 68 760 bars, blended vol 23%, score 58, coverage 100%% |
LOW
HV 23.3% ann. · 760 bars |
| 6M
2026-10-23 17:35:22 |
106.31 | 123.85 +16.5% | 101.53 → 114.28 -4.5% … +7.5% |
91.96 -13.5% | 95.15 → 120.66 | 54.0% | 68 760 bars, blended vol 23%, score 58, coverage 100%% |
LOW
HV 23.3% ann. · 760 bars |
| 12M
2026-10-23 17:35:22 |
106.31 | 130.23 +22.5% | 98.34 → 116.94 -7.5% … +10.0% |
85.05 -20.0% | 90.36 → 124.91 | 54.0% | 68 760 bars, blended vol 23%, score 58, coverage 100%% |
LOW
HV 23.3% ann. · 760 bars |
Base case
mildly positive
band -0.5% … +1.0% · 106.31 – 106.31
Bear case
Downside triggers: P/E 29× leaves no valuation buffer. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.
band -1.5% … -1.0% · 106.31 – 106.31
Catalysts the model is watching
- Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)
- Demo synthetic: MCD cut to neutral on valuation
- Demo synthetic: MCD cut to neutral on valuation
- Demo synthetic: MCD cut to neutral on valuation
- Street target implies 16.3%
Key risks & invalidation
- Binary event: 2026-10-23
Model assumptions
- Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 23.3% annualised).
- The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).
- Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.
- Index regime assumed: sideways.
- Close below the 119.18 support band or the strategy stop.
- Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.
- Volatility expanding beyond 37% annualised invalidates position sizing.
- Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change).
Reference price 106.31 at
2026-10-23 17:35:22 · regime at generation
sideways · data
demo · freshness
0s.
These bands are conditional distributions from stored inputs, not advice or a promise about outcomes.
Fundamentals
Latest stored period · FY2026 · filed 2026-12-31
Revenue$67.5BYoY +12.3%
EPS (TTM)3.75growth +11.1%
Net income$15.8B
Free cash flow$19.4Bmargin 27.0%
Gross margin52.9%
Operating margin26.4%
ROE15.5%
ROIC12.5%
Debt / equity2.09
Current ratio1.50
Interest cover27.16×
Net debt$33.2B
P/E29.00×
P/E forward25.84×
PEG2.37
P/S · P/B · EV/EBITDA6.80 · 4.48 · 20.00
Dividend yield1.31%payout 58%
Buyback yield-0.30%
Profit margin23.4%
Cash$15.0B
Stored periods (raw rows, newest first)
| Period | Revenue | Revenue YoY | EPS | Gross margin | Op margin | FCF margin | ROE | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 FY | $67.5B | +12.3% | 3.75 | 52.9% | 26.4% | 27.0% | 15.5% | 2026-12-31 |
| FY2025 FY | $57.5B | +12.8% | 3.20 | 49.6% | 26.4% | 19.8% | 12.2% | 2025-12-31 |
| FY2024 FY | $50.9B | +11.7% | 2.83 | 51.4% | 25.2% | 20.1% | 6.6% | 2024-12-31 |
| FY2023 FY | $46.8B | +13.2% | 2.60 | 47.1% | 23.6% | 23.9% | 15.7% | 2023-12-31 |
| Q4 2026 Q | $11.7B | +13.2% | 0.65 | 47.1% | 23.6% | 23.9% | 15.7% | 2026-07-01 |
Earnings and estimates
Next stored report 2026-12-10 · 0 day(s) away
Implied move9.7%from the stored option chain
EPS estimate1.00
Revenue estimate$16.9B
Consensus index60.0stored on 0–100 in the snapshot; higher = more constructive
% buy ratingsnot storednull on this row — the snapshot job did not store it
Target upsidenot stored
Gap risk0.41%median overnight gap
Time of dayamc
| Report | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Rev est | Rev actual | Guidance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-10 | 1.00 | not stored | not stored | $16.9B | not stored | none | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-10-23 | 1.02 | not stored | not stored | $16.9B | not stored | none | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-07-19 | 0.89 | 0.80 | -9.5% | $16.9B | $16.8B | lower | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-06-01 | 0.95 | 0.90 | -5.4% | $16.9B | $16.8B | lower | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-04-14 | 0.93 | 0.81 | -12.7% | $16.9B | $16.5B | maintain | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-02-25 | 0.96 | 0.94 | -1.3% | $16.9B | $16.8B | raise | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-01-08 | 0.92 | 0.99 | +6.9% | $16.9B | $16.7B | raise | synthetic_demo |
| 2025-11-21 | 1.00 | 0.98 | -1.6% | $16.9B | $17.8B | raise | synthetic_demo |
| As of | Horizon | EPS avg | EPS high | EPS low | Revenue | Analysts | 90d revisions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | FY1 | 4.18 | 4.54 | 3.71 | $71.3B | 31 | 10 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | FY2 | 4.29 | 4.73 | 3.76 | $69.0B | 28 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | Q1 | 0.99 | 1.04 | 0.81 | $17.9B | 20 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | Q2 | 1.04 | 1.22 | 0.83 | $17.6B | 23 | 8 / 4 |
Analyst actions
Stored rating changes and targets. The consensus numbers are the same ones the sentiment component read.
| Date | Firm | Action | From | To | Target | Consensus | % buy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Meridian Research | upgrade | Hold | Sell | $100.24 | 2.19 | 55% |
| 2026-08-19 | Meridian Research | initiated | Outperform | Outperform | $116.80 | 2.19 | 63% |
| 2026-07-19 | Northgate Securities | initiated | Sell | Sell | $135.64 | 2.19 | 44% |
| 2026-06-03 | Kestrel Analytics | maintained | Hold | Hold | $130.22 | 2.19 | 57% |
| 2026-04-06 | Northgate Securities | upgrade | Hold | Hold | $135.06 | 2.19 | 63% |
Ownership, insiders and short interest
Inst. position change-64.0%reported change vs the prior stored quarter
Net insider (USD)not stored
Short % of float12.1%
Days to cover56.9
| Period end | Holder | Type | Shares | Value | % float | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Vanguard Index Group | fund | 213M | $22.6B | 8.1% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | Vanguard Index Group | fund | 213M | $22.6B | 8.1% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | Vanguard Index Group | fund | 213M | $22.6B | 8.1% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | Vanguard Index Group | fund | 213M | $22.6B | 8.1% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | Vanguard Index Group | fund | 213M | $22.6B | 8.1% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | Capital Research Global | fund | 181M | $19.3B | 6.9% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | Capital Research Global | fund | 181M | $19.3B | 6.9% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | Capital Research Global | fund | 181M | $19.3B | 6.9% | not stored |
| Trade date | Owner | Title | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Owned after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Demo Officer 8DE48C | Chief Executive Officer | Grant | 115k | $117.20 | $12.3M | 1.09M |
| 2026-06-19 | Demo Officer A72EA5 | General Counsel | Grant | 185k | $98.35 | $19.7M | 1.42M |
| 2026-04-09 | Demo Officer FA80F0 | VP, Product | Grant | 87.9k | $109.44 | $9.34M | 3.61M |
| 2026-03-01 | Demo Officer 6DDC71 | General Counsel | Sale - Open Market | 237k | $111.96 | $25.2M | 6.26M |
Dividends and splits
| Ex-date | Pay date | Amount | Frequency | Yield at ex |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-22 | $0.348 | quarterly | 1.31% |
| 2026-06-19 | 2026-07-07 | $0.350 | quarterly | 1.31% |
| 2026-03-20 | 2026-04-07 | $0.351 | quarterly | 1.31% |
| 2025-12-19 | 2026-01-06 | $0.352 | quarterly | 1.31% |
| 2025-09-19 | 2025-10-07 | $0.354 | quarterly | 1.31% |
| 2025-06-20 | 2025-07-08 | $0.355 | quarterly | 1.31% |
| 2025-02-28 | 2025-03-18 | $0.357 | quarterly | 1.31% |
| 2024-12-20 | 2025-01-07 | $0.358 | quarterly | 1.31% |
| 2024-08-30 | 2024-09-17 | $0.359 | quarterly | 1.31% |
Nothing stored yet.
Options
No chain stored for this symbol
No option chain stored.
Chains are only stored for symbols the options job covers, and only for the expiry it snapshots.
Open the flow page for a symbol that has data, or run the options ingestion.
News mentioning MCD
Stored headlines linked to this security, newest first. Sentiment scores come from the stored scorer, not from this page.
Demo synthetic: MCD cut to neutral on valuation
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: MCD cut to neutral on valuation
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: MCD cut to neutral on valuation
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: MCD cut to neutral on valuation
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: street lifts MCD target after channel checks
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: street lifts MCD target after channel checks
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: street lifts MCD target after channel checks
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: street lifts MCD target after channel checks
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, MCD beta repriced
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, MCD beta repriced
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, MCD beta repriced
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, MCD beta repriced
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.