Bull case
If fundamentals scoring above the coverage median, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.
band +1.5% … +2.5% · 137.21 – 137.21
Mastercard Inc.
MA NEUTRAL MEDIUM EQUITY DEMO
$137.21
-0.01%
1-day change from the stored snapshot · 27 hours ago
DEMO DATASET last stored bar 2026-10-23 · scores computed 2026-10-23 17:35:22 · every figure below is read from these rows, nothing is computed in the browser
Price · stored daily bars
126 bars ending 2026-10-23 · demo data
Indicators are computed from the same stored closes the score used; the forecast fan is drawn from qm_predictions, not from a live model call.
how this is drawn
Open$137.64
Day range$138.90 / $135.85
Prev close$137.22
Volume23.2M
RVOL 30d1.05×session volume over stored 30-day average
Avg $ volume$2.86B
Market cap$258B
HV2025.4% ann.
Beta0.69
RSI(14)63.8
ATR %3.30%
Max drawdown-46.2%
52-week rangefrom $119.96 to $226.78
52-week low / high$119.96 / $226.78
From 52w high-39.5%
Liquiditynot storeddays of average volume to fill 1% of float
Forecast
Stored scenarios from the last pipeline run. The model that wrote them is named on each row; no forecast is generated when you look at this page.
| Horizon | Ref | Bull high | Base range | Bear low | P10 → P90 | P(up) | Confidence | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D
2026-10-23 17:35:22 |
137.21 | 140.64 +2.5% | 135.84 → 138.58 -1.0% … +1.0% |
134.47 -2.0% | 135.15 → 139.95 | 53.0% | 68 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 58, coverage 100%% |
LOW
HV 25.9% ann. · 760 bars |
| 5D
2026-10-23 17:35:22 |
137.21 | 142.70 +4.0% | 135.84 → 139.95 -1.0% … +2.0% |
131.72 -4.0% | 133.09 → 142.70 | 53.0% | 68 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 58, coverage 100%% |
LOW
HV 25.9% ann. · 760 bars |
| 1M
2026-10-23 17:35:22 |
137.21 | 149.56 +9.0% | 133.09 → 142.70 -3.0% … +4.0% |
126.23 -8.0% | 128.98 → 146.81 | 53.0% | 68 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 58, coverage 100%% |
LOW
HV 25.9% ann. · 760 bars |
| 3M
2026-10-23 17:35:22 |
137.21 | 157.79 +15.0% | 131.04 → 147.50 -4.5% … +7.5% |
118.69 -13.5% | 122.80 → 153.68 | 53.0% | 68 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 58, coverage 100%% |
LOW
HV 25.9% ann. · 760 bars |
| 6M
2026-10-23 17:35:22 |
137.21 | 168.08 +22.5% | 126.92 → 151.62 -7.5% … +10.5% |
110.45 -19.5% | 116.63 → 161.91 | 53.0% | 68 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 58, coverage 100%% |
LOW
HV 25.9% ann. · 760 bars |
| 12M
2026-10-23 17:35:22 |
137.21 | 181.80 +32.5% | 123.49 → 157.79 -10.0% … +15.0% |
99.48 -27.5% | 109.77 → 171.51 | 53.0% | 68 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 58, coverage 100%% |
MEDIUM
HV 25.9% ann. · 760 bars |
Base case
mildly positive
band -1.0% … +1.0% · 137.21 – 137.21
Bear case
Downside triggers: a market-wide risk-off move alone can carry the 5–20th percentile band. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.
band -2.0% … -1.0% · 137.21 – 137.21
Catalysts the model is watching
- Earnings report 2026-10-23 (as scheduled)
- Demo synthetic: MA completes share buyback tranche
- Demo synthetic: MA completes share buyback tranche
- Demo synthetic: MA completes share buyback tranche
- Street target implies 9.1%
Key risks & invalidation
- Historic drawdown deeper than 46%
- Binary event: 2026-10-23
Model assumptions
- Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 25.9% annualised).
- The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).
- Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.
- Index regime assumed: sideways.
- Close below the 155.03 support band or the strategy stop.
- Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.
- Volatility expanding beyond 41% annualised invalidates position sizing.
- Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change).
Reference price 137.21 at
2026-10-23 17:35:22 · regime at generation
sideways · data
demo · freshness
0s.
These bands are conditional distributions from stored inputs, not advice or a promise about outcomes.
Fundamentals
Latest stored period · FY2026 · filed 2026-12-31
Revenue$88.5BYoY +5.0%
EPS (TTM)12.62growth +6.3%
Net income$23.7B
Free cash flow$23.4Bmargin 25.3%
Gross margin52.1%
Operating margin28.6%
ROE19.8%
ROIC17.1%
Debt / equity1.10
Current ratio2.06
Interest cover18.86×
Net debt$21.9B
P/E10.57×
P/E forward10.09×
PEG2.21
P/S · P/B · EV/EBITDA2.83 · 2.10 · 7.29
Dividend yield1.23%payout 46%
Buyback yield2.76%
Profit margin26.8%
Cash$22.0B
Stored periods (raw rows, newest first)
| Period | Revenue | Revenue YoY | EPS | Gross margin | Op margin | FCF margin | ROE | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 FY | $88.5B | +5.0% | 12.62 | 52.1% | 28.6% | 25.3% | 19.8% | 2026-12-31 |
| FY2025 FY | $86.9B | +3.4% | 12.39 | 51.9% | 30.9% | 19.8% | 20.2% | 2025-12-31 |
| FY2024 FY | $84.9B | +6.1% | 12.11 | 57.0% | 31.0% | 18.9% | 45.0% | 2024-12-31 |
| FY2023 FY | $79.2B | +5.5% | 11.29 | 61.4% | 29.3% | 30.2% | 58.6% | 2023-12-31 |
| Q4 2026 Q | $19.8B | +5.5% | 2.82 | 61.4% | 29.3% | 30.2% | 58.6% | 2026-07-01 |
Earnings and estimates
Next stored report 2026-12-10 · 0 day(s) away
Implied move9.0%from the stored option chain
EPS estimate3.03
Revenue estimate$22.1B
Consensus index42.2stored on 0–100 in the snapshot; higher = more constructive
% buy ratingsnot storednull on this row — the snapshot job did not store it
Target upsidenot stored
Gap risk0.42%median overnight gap
Time of dayamc
| Report | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Rev est | Rev actual | Guidance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-10 | 3.03 | not stored | not stored | $22.1B | not stored | none | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-10-23 | 3.35 | not stored | not stored | $22.1B | not stored | none | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-07-19 | 3.33 | 3.31 | -0.8% | $22.1B | $21.2B | maintain | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-06-01 | 3.02 | 3.09 | +2.4% | $22.1B | $22.2B | maintain | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-04-14 | 3.23 | 3.27 | +1.2% | $22.1B | $23.1B | raise | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-02-25 | 3.26 | 3.37 | +3.3% | $22.1B | $22.8B | raise | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-01-08 | 3.38 | 3.44 | +1.9% | $22.1B | $21.9B | maintain | synthetic_demo |
| 2025-11-21 | 3.41 | 2.99 | -12.2% | $22.1B | $22.1B | raise | synthetic_demo |
| As of | Horizon | EPS avg | EPS high | EPS low | Revenue | Analysts | 90d revisions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | FY1 | 13.33 | 15.64 | 10.13 | $97.2B | 22 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | FY2 | 13.61 | 15.26 | 12.30 | $92.3B | 21 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | Q1 | 3.67 | 4.39 | 3.55 | $22.8B | 24 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | Q2 | 3.54 | 3.87 | 3.38 | $23.2B | 21 | 6 / 7 |
Analyst actions
Stored rating changes and targets. The consensus numbers are the same ones the sentiment component read.
| Date | Firm | Action | From | To | Target | Consensus | % buy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | Blue Harbor Capital Research | initiated | Sell | Sell | $173.35 | 3.89 | 19% |
| 2026-08-29 | Kestrel Analytics | maintained | Sell | Sell | $130.10 | 3.89 | 29% |
| 2026-07-07 | Meridian Research | downgrade | Buy | Hold | $160.90 | 3.89 | 21% |
| 2026-05-23 | Blue Harbor Capital Research | initiated | Outperform | Outperform | $161.14 | 3.89 | 22% |
| 2026-04-11 | Blue Harbor Capital Research | initiated | Outperform | Outperform | $122.89 | 3.89 | 12% |
Ownership, insiders and short interest
Inst. position change-56.5%reported change vs the prior stored quarter
Net insider (USD)not stored
Short % of float10.3%
Days to cover19.8
| Period end | Holder | Type | Shares | Value | % float | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | State Street Global Advisors | fund | 93.2M | $12.8B | 8.0% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | State Street Global Advisors | fund | 93.2M | $12.8B | 8.0% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | State Street Global Advisors | fund | 93.2M | $12.8B | 8.0% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | State Street Global Advisors | fund | 93.2M | $12.8B | 8.0% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | State Street Global Advisors | fund | 93.2M | $12.8B | 8.0% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | Vanguard Index Group | fund | 91.5M | $12.6B | 7.9% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | Vanguard Index Group | fund | 91.5M | $12.6B | 7.9% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | Vanguard Index Group | fund | 91.5M | $12.6B | 7.9% | not stored |
Dividends and splits
| Ex-date | Pay date | Amount | Frequency | Yield at ex |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | 2026-10-06 | $0.423 | quarterly | 1.23% |
| 2026-06-19 | 2026-07-07 | $0.425 | quarterly | 1.23% |
| 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-31 | $0.427 | quarterly | 1.23% |
| 2025-12-05 | 2025-12-23 | $0.428 | quarterly | 1.23% |
| 2025-09-05 | 2025-09-23 | $0.430 | quarterly | 1.23% |
| 2025-06-20 | 2025-07-08 | $0.432 | quarterly | 1.23% |
| 2025-03-07 | 2025-03-25 | $0.433 | quarterly | 1.23% |
| 2024-12-06 | 2024-12-24 | $0.435 | quarterly | 1.23% |
| 2024-08-30 | 2024-09-17 | $0.437 | quarterly | 1.23% |
Nothing stored yet.
Options
Stored chain for expiry 2026-11-06 · 9 call / 9 put strikes
Strikes stored189 calls / 9 puts on this expiry
Chain volume66.1kcontracts across all listed strikes
Chain open interest539k
Chain IV (mean)32.8%the column stores a fraction; ×100 for display
Put/call volume1.291from the daily aggregate row for 2026-10-23
Call / put volume31.1k / 40.1k
IV3028.8%stored as a fraction
HV3027.3%realised 30-day vol
IV rank69.0 /100
OI change+2.4%percent, as stored
Expiries stored4
Chain as of2026-10-23 17:35
| When | Expiry | Strike | Right | Contracts | Premium | Unusual | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 17:35 | 2026-12-26 | $141.50 | PUT | 506k | $2.08M | 0.65 | volume ≫ open interest (new positioning) |
| 2026-10-20 13:46 | 2026-12-26 | $141.50 | PUT | 506k | $2.08M | 0.65 | volume ≫ open interest (new positioning) |
| 2026-10-20 14:25 | 2026-12-26 | $141.50 | PUT | 506k | $2.08M | 0.65 | volume ≫ open interest (new positioning) |
| 2026-10-20 16:05 | 2026-12-26 | $141.50 | PUT | 506k | $2.08M | 0.65 | volume ≫ open interest (new positioning) |
| 2026-10-20 16:58 | 2026-12-26 | $141.50 | PUT | 506k | $2.08M | 0.65 | volume ≫ open interest (new positioning) |
| 2026-10-20 13:46 | 2026-11-15 | $133.00 | CALL | 154k | $633k | 1.63 | sweep across exchanges |
| 2026-10-20 14:25 | 2026-11-15 | $133.00 | CALL | 154k | $633k | 1.63 | sweep across exchanges |
| 2026-10-20 16:05 | 2026-11-15 | $133.00 | CALL | 154k | $633k | 1.63 | sweep across exchanges |
| 2026-10-20 16:58 | 2026-11-15 | $133.00 | CALL | 154k | $633k | 1.63 | sweep across exchanges |
| 2026-10-20 17:35 | 2026-11-15 | $133.00 | CALL | 154k | $633k | 1.63 | sweep across exchanges |
| 2026-10-19 17:35 | 2026-12-09 | $138.00 | CALL | 152k | $625k | 0.69 | sweep across exchanges |
| 2026-10-19 13:46 | 2026-12-09 | $138.00 | CALL | 152k | $625k | 0.69 | sweep across exchanges |
| 2026-10-19 14:25 | 2026-12-09 | $138.00 | CALL | 152k | $625k | 0.69 | sweep across exchanges |
| 2026-10-19 16:05 | 2026-12-09 | $138.00 | CALL | 152k | $625k | 0.69 | sweep across exchanges |
| 2026-10-19 16:58 | 2026-12-09 | $138.00 | CALL | 152k | $625k | 0.69 | sweep across exchanges |
| 2026-10-22 17:35 | 2026-11-26 | $139.50 | PUT | 16.4k | $67.7k | 3.49 | sweep across exchanges |
| 2026-10-22 13:46 | 2026-11-26 | $139.50 | PUT | 16.4k | $67.7k | 3.49 | sweep across exchanges |
| 2026-10-22 14:25 | 2026-11-26 | $139.50 | PUT | 16.4k | $67.7k | 3.49 | sweep across exchanges |
| 2026-10-22 16:05 | 2026-11-26 | $139.50 | PUT | 16.4k | $67.7k | 3.49 | sweep across exchanges |
| 2026-10-22 16:58 | 2026-11-26 | $139.50 | PUT | 16.4k | $67.7k | 3.49 | sweep across exchanges |
Flow rows are stored observations of size, not information about who traded.
The flagged note on each row says so; nothing here implies insider activity.
News mentioning MA
Stored headlines linked to this security, newest first. Sentiment scores come from the stored scorer, not from this page.
Demo synthetic: MA completes share buyback tranche
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: MA completes share buyback tranche
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: MA completes share buyback tranche
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: MA completes share buyback tranche
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: MA guides below consensus on cost pressure
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: MA guides below consensus on cost pressure
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: MA guides below consensus on cost pressure
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: MA guides below consensus on cost pressure
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, MA beta repriced
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, MA beta repriced
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, MA beta repriced
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, MA beta repriced
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.