Bull case
If a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.
band +1.0% … +1.5% · 85.64 – 85.64
American Express
AXP CONSTRUCTIVE LOW EQUITY DEMO
$85.64
+1.27%
1-day change from the stored snapshot · 2 days ago
DEMO DATASET last stored bar 2026-10-23 · scores computed 2026-10-25 04:13:59 · every figure below is read from these rows, nothing is computed in the browser
Price · stored daily bars
126 bars ending 2026-10-23 · demo data
Indicators are computed from the same stored closes the score used; the forecast fan is drawn from qm_predictions, not from a live model call.
how this is drawn
Open$84.04
Day range$87.10 / $83.54
Prev close$84.56
Volume26.8M
RVOL 30d1.12×session volume over stored 30-day average
Avg $ volume$1.97B
Market cap$215B
HV2021.1% ann.
Beta0.65
RSI(14)63.8
ATR %3.23%
Max drawdown-41.4%
52-week rangefrom $74.50 to $131.40
52-week low / high$74.50 / $131.40
From 52w high-34.8%
Liquiditynot storeddays of average volume to fill 1% of float
Forecast
Stored scenarios from the last pipeline run. The model that wrote them is named on each row; no forecast is generated when you look at this page.
| Horizon | Ref | Bull high | Base range | Bear low | P10 → P90 | P(up) | Confidence | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D
2026-10-25 04:13:59 |
85.64 | 86.92 +1.5% | 85.21 → 86.50 -0.5% … +1.0% |
84.36 -1.5% | 84.78 → 86.92 | 55.0% | 58 760 bars, blended vol 23%, score 62, coverage 100%% |
LOW
HV 22.8% ann. · 760 bars |
| 5D
2026-10-25 04:13:59 |
85.64 | 89.07 +4.0% | 84.78 → 87.35 -1.0% … +2.0% |
83.07 -3.0% | 83.93 → 88.21 | 55.0% | 58 760 bars, blended vol 23%, score 62, coverage 100%% |
LOW
HV 22.8% ann. · 760 bars |
| 1M
2026-10-25 04:13:59 |
85.64 | 92.49 +8.0% | 83.93 → 89.07 -2.0% … +4.0% |
80.50 -6.0% | 81.36 → 90.78 | 55.0% | 58 760 bars, blended vol 23%, score 62, coverage 100%% |
LOW
HV 22.8% ann. · 760 bars |
| 3M
2026-10-25 04:13:59 |
85.64 | 97.20 +13.5% | 83.07 → 90.78 -3.0% … +6.0% |
76.65 -10.5% | 79.22 → 94.63 | 55.0% | 58 760 bars, blended vol 23%, score 62, coverage 100%% |
LOW
HV 22.8% ann. · 760 bars |
| 6M
2026-10-25 04:13:59 |
85.64 | 102.34 +19.5% | 81.79 → 93.35 -4.5% … +9.0% |
72.79 -15.0% | 75.36 → 98.49 | 55.0% | 58 760 bars, blended vol 23%, score 62, coverage 100%% |
LOW
HV 22.8% ann. · 760 bars |
| 12M
2026-10-25 04:13:59 |
85.64 | 109.19 +27.5% | 79.22 → 96.35 -7.5% … +12.5% |
66.37 -22.5% | 70.65 → 104.91 | 55.0% | 58 760 bars, blended vol 23%, score 62, coverage 100%% |
MEDIUM
HV 22.8% ann. · 760 bars |
Base case
mildly positive
band -0.5% … +1.0% · 85.64 – 85.64
Bear case
Downside triggers: a market-wide risk-off move alone can carry the 5–20th percentile band. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.
band -1.5% … -0.5% · 85.64 – 85.64
Catalysts the model is watching
- Earnings report 2026-12-10 (after close)
- Demo synthetic: AXP cut to neutral on valuation
- Demo synthetic: AXP cut to neutral on valuation
- Demo synthetic: AXP cut to neutral on valuation
- Street target implies 1%
Key risks & invalidation
- Historic drawdown deeper than 41%
- Binary event: 2026-12-10
Model assumptions
- Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 22.8% annualised).
- The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).
- Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.
- Index regime assumed: sideways.
- Close below the 92.73 support band or the strategy stop.
- Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.
- Volatility expanding beyond 36% annualised invalidates position sizing.
- Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change).
Reference price 85.64 at
2026-10-25 04:13:59 · regime at generation
sideways · data
demo · freshness
112439s.
These bands are conditional distributions from stored inputs, not advice or a promise about outcomes.
Fundamentals
Latest stored period · FY2026 · filed 2026-12-31
Revenue$59.3BYoY +6.8%
EPS (TTM)6.15growth +5.7%
Net income$15.5B
Free cash flow$14.9Bmargin 21.9%
Gross margin60.2%
Operating margin27.5%
ROE35.3%
ROIC12.3%
Debt / equity0.50
Current ratio2.22
Interest cover13.11×
Net debt$8.95B
P/E13.56×
P/E forward12.83×
PEG2.38
P/S · P/B · EV/EBITDA3.54 · 4.79 · 9.35
Dividend yield1.39%payout 33%
Buyback yield-0.19%
Profit margin26.1%
Cash$10.6B
Stored periods (raw rows, newest first)
| Period | Revenue | Revenue YoY | EPS | Gross margin | Op margin | FCF margin | ROE | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 FY | $59.3B | +6.8% | 6.15 | 60.2% | 27.5% | 21.9% | 35.3% | 2026-12-31 |
| FY2025 FY | $57.2B | +7.1% | 5.94 | 50.6% | 27.9% | 18.5% | 19.1% | 2025-12-31 |
| FY2024 FY | $55.5B | +7.2% | 5.76 | 51.1% | 31.1% | 25.6% | 46.5% | 2024-12-31 |
| FY2023 FY | $52.2B | +6.6% | 5.42 | 57.5% | 27.7% | 23.1% | 8.2% | 2023-12-31 |
| Q4 2026 Q | $13.0B | +6.6% | 1.35 | 57.5% | 27.7% | 23.1% | 8.2% | 2026-07-01 |
Earnings and estimates
Next stored report 2026-12-10 · 33 day(s) away
Implied move3.5%from the stored option chain
EPS estimate1.68
Revenue estimate$14.8B
Consensus index59.7stored on 0–100 in the snapshot; higher = more constructive
% buy ratingsnot storednull on this row — the snapshot job did not store it
Target upsidenot stored
Gap risk0.44%median overnight gap
Time of dayamc
| Report | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Rev est | Rev actual | Guidance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-10 | 1.68 | not stored | not stored | $14.8B | not stored | none | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-10-23 | 1.58 | not stored | not stored | $14.8B | not stored | none | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-07-19 | 1.66 | 1.49 | -10.1% | $14.8B | $15.1B | maintain | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-06-01 | 1.66 | 1.74 | +4.7% | $14.8B | $14.2B | raise | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-04-14 | 1.52 | 1.43 | -5.5% | $14.8B | $14.9B | raise | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-02-25 | 1.45 | 1.67 | +15.4% | $14.8B | $14.9B | lower | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-01-08 | 1.59 | 1.40 | -12.1% | $14.8B | $15.1B | maintain | synthetic_demo |
| 2025-11-21 | 1.52 | 1.35 | -11.5% | $14.8B | $14.9B | raise | synthetic_demo |
| As of | Horizon | EPS avg | EPS high | EPS low | Revenue | Analysts | 90d revisions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | FY1 | 6.73 | 8.02 | 6.48 | $63.1B | 15 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | FY2 | 7.03 | 7.05 | 6.59 | $64.9B | 34 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | Q1 | 1.71 | 1.93 | 1.37 | $15.7B | 16 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | Q2 | 1.83 | 1.99 | 1.71 | $15.2B | 21 | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-10-24 | FY1 | 6.73 | 8.02 | 6.48 | $63.1B | 15 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | FY2 | 7.03 | 7.05 | 6.59 | $64.9B | 34 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | Q1 | 1.71 | 1.93 | 1.37 | $15.7B | 16 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | Q2 | 1.83 | 1.99 | 1.71 | $15.2B | 21 | 4 / 0 |
Analyst actions
Stored rating changes and targets. The consensus numbers are the same ones the sentiment component read.
| Date | Firm | Action | From | To | Target | Consensus | % buy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | Northgate Securities | upgrade | Hold | Sell | $78.14 | 3.17 | 31% |
| 2026-08-28 | Kestrel Analytics | downgrade | Buy | Buy | $86.41 | 3.17 | 45% |
| 2026-07-10 | Northgate Securities | maintained | Neutral | Neutral | $77.27 | 3.17 | 42% |
| 2026-05-30 | Northgate Securities | downgrade | Buy | Hold | $97.14 | 3.17 | 37% |
| 2026-04-17 | Northgate Securities | upgrade | Hold | Buy | $93.46 | 3.17 | 40% |
Ownership, insiders and short interest
Inst. position change-52.0%reported change vs the prior stored quarter
Net insider (USD)not stored
Short % of float4.9%
Days to cover10.9
| Period end | Holder | Type | Shares | Value | % float | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | State Street Global Advisors | fund | 138M | $11.8B | 8.9% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | State Street Global Advisors | fund | 138M | $11.8B | 8.9% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | State Street Global Advisors | fund | 138M | $11.8B | 8.9% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | State Street Global Advisors | fund | 138M | $11.8B | 8.9% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | State Street Global Advisors | fund | 138M | $11.8B | 8.9% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | State Street Global Advisors | fund | 138M | $11.8B | 8.9% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | State Street Global Advisors | fund | 138M | $11.8B | 8.9% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | State Street Global Advisors | fund | 138M | $11.8B | 8.9% | not stored |
Dividends and splits
| Ex-date | Pay date | Amount | Frequency | Yield at ex |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | 2026-09-17 | $0.299 | quarterly | 1.39% |
| 2026-08-29 | 2026-09-16 | $0.299 | quarterly | 1.39% |
| 2026-08-28 | 2026-09-15 | $0.299 | quarterly | 1.39% |
| 2026-06-14 | 2026-07-02 | $0.300 | quarterly | 1.39% |
| 2026-06-13 | 2026-07-01 | $0.300 | quarterly | 1.39% |
| 2026-06-12 | 2026-06-30 | $0.300 | quarterly | 1.39% |
| 2026-03-22 | 2026-04-09 | $0.301 | quarterly | 1.39% |
| 2026-03-21 | 2026-04-08 | $0.301 | quarterly | 1.39% |
| 2026-03-20 | 2026-04-07 | $0.301 | quarterly | 1.39% |
| 2025-12-21 | 2026-01-08 | $0.302 | quarterly | 1.39% |
Nothing stored yet.
Options
Stored chain for expiry 2026-11-06 · 9 call / 9 put strikes
Strikes stored189 calls / 9 puts on this expiry
Chain volume64.6kcontracts across all listed strikes
Chain open interest459k
Chain IV (mean)21.9%the column stores a fraction; ×100 for display
Put/call volume0.719from the daily aggregate row for 2026-10-25
Call / put volume43.9k / 31.6k
IV3019.5%stored as a fraction
HV3019.7%realised 30-day vol
IV rank37.8 /100
OI change-1.8%percent, as stored
Expiries stored12
Chain as of2026-10-23 17:35
News mentioning AXP
Stored headlines linked to this security, newest first. Sentiment scores come from the stored scorer, not from this page.
Demo synthetic: AXP cut to neutral on valuation
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: AXP cut to neutral on valuation
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: AXP cut to neutral on valuation
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: AXP cut to neutral on valuation
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: AXP cut to neutral on valuation
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: AXP cut to neutral on valuation
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: AXP cut to neutral on valuation
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: AXP completes share buyback tranche
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: AXP completes share buyback tranche
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: AXP completes share buyback tranche
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: AXP completes share buyback tranche
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: AXP completes share buyback tranche
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: AXP completes share buyback tranche
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: AXP completes share buyback tranche
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.