Bull case
If RSI mid-range — room to extend, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.
band +1.0% … +1.5% · 222.36 – 222.36
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT NEUTRAL MEDIUM EQUITY DEMO
$222.36
+0.50%
1-day change from the stored snapshot · 2 days ago
DEMO DATASET last stored bar 2026-10-23 · scores computed 2026-10-25 04:13:59 · every figure below is read from these rows, nothing is computed in the browser
Price · stored daily bars
126 bars ending 2026-10-23 · demo data
Indicators are computed from the same stored closes the score used; the forecast fan is drawn from qm_predictions, not from a live model call.
how this is drawn
Open$222.79
Day range$230.71 / $214.25
Prev close$221.25
Volume50.6M
RVOL 30d1.57×session volume over stored 30-day average
Avg $ volume$7.39B
Market cap$1.13T
HV2030.0% ann.
Beta0.51
RSI(14)48.6
ATR %4.95%
Max drawdown-41.4%
52-week rangefrom $207.77 to $371.50
52-week low / high$207.77 / $371.50
From 52w high-40.1%
Liquiditynot storeddays of average volume to fill 1% of float
Forecast
Stored scenarios from the last pipeline run. The model that wrote them is named on each row; no forecast is generated when you look at this page.
| Horizon | Ref | Bull high | Base range | Bear low | P10 → P90 | P(up) | Confidence | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D
2026-10-25 04:13:59 |
222.36 | 225.70 +1.5% | 221.25 → 223.47 -0.5% … +0.5% |
219.02 -1.5% | 219.02 → 225.70 | 51.0% | 57 760 bars, blended vol 29%, score 52, coverage 100%% |
LOW
HV 29.3% ann. · 760 bars |
| 5D
2026-10-25 04:13:59 |
222.36 | 231.25 +4.0% | 220.14 → 226.81 -1.0% … +2.0% |
213.47 -4.0% | 215.69 → 229.03 | 51.0% | 57 760 bars, blended vol 29%, score 52, coverage 100%% |
LOW
HV 29.3% ann. · 760 bars |
| 1M
2026-10-25 04:13:59 |
222.36 | 240.15 +8.0% | 215.69 → 229.03 -3.0% … +3.0% |
204.57 -8.0% | 209.02 → 235.70 | 51.0% | 57 760 bars, blended vol 29%, score 52, coverage 100%% |
LOW
HV 29.3% ann. · 760 bars |
| 3M
2026-10-25 04:13:59 |
222.36 | 252.38 +13.5% | 212.35 → 235.70 -4.5% … +6.0% |
192.34 -13.5% | 199.01 → 245.71 | 51.0% | 57 760 bars, blended vol 29%, score 52, coverage 100%% |
LOW
HV 29.3% ann. · 760 bars |
| 6M
2026-10-25 04:13:59 |
222.36 | 265.72 +19.5% | 205.68 → 239.04 -7.5% … +7.5% |
182.34 -18.0% | 189.01 → 255.71 | 51.0% | 57 760 bars, blended vol 29%, score 52, coverage 100%% |
LOW
HV 29.3% ann. · 760 bars |
| 12M
2026-10-25 04:13:59 |
222.36 | 283.51 +27.5% | 200.12 → 250.16 -10.0% … +12.5% |
166.77 -25.0% | 177.89 → 266.83 | 51.0% | 57 760 bars, blended vol 29%, score 52, coverage 100%% |
MEDIUM
HV 29.3% ann. · 760 bars |
Base case
mildly positive
band -0.5% … +0.5% · 222.36 – 222.36
Bear case
Downside triggers: P/E 28.4× leaves no valuation buffer. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.
band -1.5% … -1.0% · 222.36 – 222.36
Catalysts the model is watching
- Earnings report 2026-12-10 (as scheduled)
- Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, CAT beta repriced
- Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, CAT beta repriced
- Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, CAT beta repriced
- Street target implies -2.5%
Key risks & invalidation
- Historic drawdown deeper than 41%
- Binary event: 2026-12-10
Model assumptions
- Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 29.3% annualised).
- The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).
- Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.
- Index regime assumed: sideways.
- Close below the 269.62 support band or the strategy stop.
- Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.
- Volatility expanding beyond 47% annualised invalidates position sizing.
- Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change).
Reference price 222.36 at
2026-10-25 04:13:59 · regime at generation
sideways · data
demo · freshness
112439s.
These bands are conditional distributions from stored inputs, not advice or a promise about outcomes.
Fundamentals
Latest stored period · FY2026 · filed 2026-12-31
Revenue$136BYoY +10.3%
EPS (TTM)7.64growth +12.5%
Net income$39.0B
Free cash flow$34.5Bmargin 33.2%
Gross margin64.2%
Operating margin33.0%
ROE14.2%
ROIC14.3%
Debt / equity1.27
Current ratio0.75
Interest cover27.86×
Net debt$63.2B
P/E28.35×
P/E forward25.66×
PEG2.70
P/S · P/B · EV/EBITDA8.12 · 4.03 · 19.55
Dividend yield0.73%payout 39%
Buyback yield1.81%
Profit margin28.6%
Cash$42.4B
Stored periods (raw rows, newest first)
| Period | Revenue | Revenue YoY | EPS | Gross margin | Op margin | FCF margin | ROE | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 FY | $136B | +10.3% | 7.64 | 64.2% | 33.0% | 33.2% | 14.2% | 2026-12-31 |
| FY2025 FY | $128B | +11.5% | 7.18 | 55.8% | 33.9% | 21.9% | 4.1% | 2025-12-31 |
| FY2024 FY | $116B | +10.2% | 6.51 | 61.2% | 32.9% | 30.0% | 7.8% | 2024-12-31 |
| FY2023 FY | $102B | +9.9% | 5.73 | 54.9% | 28.9% | 29.0% | 15.7% | 2023-12-31 |
| Q4 2026 Q | $25.5B | +9.9% | 1.43 | 54.9% | 28.9% | 29.0% | 15.7% | 2026-07-01 |
Earnings and estimates
Next stored report 2026-12-10 · 33 day(s) away
Implied move4.2%from the stored option chain
EPS estimate1.99
Revenue estimate$34.0B
Consensus index45.9stored on 0–100 in the snapshot; higher = more constructive
% buy ratingsnot storednull on this row — the snapshot job did not store it
Target upsidenot stored
Gap risk0.53%median overnight gap
Time of daybmo
| Report | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Rev est | Rev actual | Guidance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-10 | 1.99 | not stored | not stored | $34.0B | not stored | none | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-10-23 | 1.91 | not stored | not stored | $34.0B | not stored | none | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-07-19 | 2.01 | 1.99 | -0.9% | $34.0B | $34.0B | lower | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-06-01 | 1.90 | 2.12 | +11.8% | $34.0B | $34.8B | maintain | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-04-14 | 2.00 | 2.19 | +9.2% | $34.0B | $34.3B | lower | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-02-25 | 2.01 | 2.02 | +0.7% | $34.0B | $35.7B | raise | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-01-08 | 1.93 | 1.69 | -12.7% | $34.0B | $34.9B | raise | synthetic_demo |
| 2025-11-21 | 1.81 | 1.97 | +8.9% | $34.0B | $35.8B | raise | synthetic_demo |
| As of | Horizon | EPS avg | EPS high | EPS low | Revenue | Analysts | 90d revisions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | FY1 | 8.61 | 9.75 | 8.29 | $140B | 11 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | FY2 | 8.35 | 8.35 | 7.59 | $147B | 36 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | Q1 | 2.09 | 2.25 | 2.05 | $36.4B | 26 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | Q2 | 2.06 | 2.09 | 1.66 | $36.8B | 6 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | FY1 | 8.61 | 9.75 | 8.29 | $140B | 11 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | FY2 | 8.35 | 8.35 | 7.59 | $147B | 36 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | Q1 | 2.09 | 2.25 | 2.05 | $36.4B | 26 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | Q2 | 2.06 | 2.09 | 1.66 | $36.8B | 6 | 2 / 8 |
Analyst actions
Stored rating changes and targets. The consensus numbers are the same ones the sentiment component read.
| Date | Firm | Action | From | To | Target | Consensus | % buy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Halcyon Partners | downgrade | Buy | Sell | $193.54 | 2.49 | 43% |
| 2026-08-20 | Meridian Research | upgrade | Hold | Hold | $196.38 | 2.49 | 56% |
| 2026-07-09 | Blue Harbor Capital Research | upgrade | Hold | Hold | $198.84 | 2.49 | 52% |
| 2026-06-01 | Northgate Securities | initiated | Neutral | Neutral | $265.43 | 2.49 | 41% |
| 2026-04-06 | Blue Harbor Capital Research | maintained | Sell | Sell | $229.50 | 2.49 | 43% |
Ownership, insiders and short interest
Inst. position change-78.3%reported change vs the prior stored quarter
Net insider (USD)not stored
Short % of float8.1%
Days to cover25.0
| Period end | Holder | Type | Shares | Value | % float | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Vanguard Index Group | fund | 190M | $42.2B | 6.0% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | Vanguard Index Group | fund | 190M | $42.2B | 6.0% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | Vanguard Index Group | fund | 190M | $42.2B | 6.0% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | Vanguard Index Group | fund | 190M | $42.2B | 6.0% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | Vanguard Index Group | fund | 190M | $42.2B | 6.0% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | Vanguard Index Group | fund | 190M | $42.2B | 6.0% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | Vanguard Index Group | fund | 190M | $42.2B | 6.0% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | Vanguard Index Group | fund | 190M | $42.2B | 6.0% | not stored |
Dividends and splits
| Ex-date | Pay date | Amount | Frequency | Yield at ex |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 2026-10-01 | $0.404 | quarterly | 0.73% |
| 2026-09-12 | 2026-09-30 | $0.404 | quarterly | 0.73% |
| 2026-09-11 | 2026-09-29 | $0.404 | quarterly | 0.73% |
| 2026-06-21 | 2026-07-09 | $0.406 | quarterly | 0.73% |
| 2026-06-20 | 2026-07-08 | $0.406 | quarterly | 0.73% |
| 2026-06-19 | 2026-07-07 | $0.406 | quarterly | 0.73% |
| 2026-03-15 | 2026-04-02 | $0.407 | quarterly | 0.73% |
| 2026-03-14 | 2026-04-01 | $0.407 | quarterly | 0.73% |
| 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-31 | $0.407 | quarterly | 0.73% |
| 2025-11-30 | 2025-12-18 | $0.409 | quarterly | 0.73% |
| Date | Ratio | Type |
|---|---|---|
| not stored | — | — |
| not stored | — | — |
| not stored | — | — |
Options
No chain stored for this symbol
No option chain stored.
Chains are only stored for symbols the options job covers, and only for the expiry it snapshots.
Open the flow page for a symbol that has data, or run the options ingestion.
News mentioning CAT
Stored headlines linked to this security, newest first. Sentiment scores come from the stored scorer, not from this page.
Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, CAT beta repriced
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, CAT beta repriced
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, CAT beta repriced
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, CAT beta repriced
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, CAT beta repriced
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, CAT beta repriced
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, CAT beta repriced
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, CAT beta repriced
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: CAT faces second request in pending acquisition
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: CAT faces second request in pending acquisition
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: CAT faces second request in pending acquisition
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: CAT faces second request in pending acquisition
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.