Bull case
If a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.
band +0.5% … +1.5% · 4.00 – 4.00
Finova Pay
FINO DETERIORATING MEDIUM IPO DEMO
$4.00
-2.55%
1-day change from the stored snapshot · 27 hours ago
DEMO DATASET last stored bar 2026-10-23 · scores computed 2026-10-23 17:35:24 · every figure below is read from these rows, nothing is computed in the browser
Price · stored daily bars
126 bars ending 2026-10-23 · demo data
Indicators are computed from the same stored closes the score used; the forecast fan is drawn from qm_predictions, not from a live model call.
how this is drawn
Open$4.11
Day range$4.13 / $3.97
Prev close$4.10
Volume9.46M
RVOL 30d1.23×session volume over stored 30-day average
Avg $ volume$31.9M
Market cap$2.31B
HV2020.7% ann.
Beta0.60
RSI(14)37.2
ATR %2.83%
Max drawdown-42.6%
52-week rangefrom $3.83 to $6.86
52-week low / high$3.83 / $6.86
From 52w high-41.7%
Liquiditynot storeddays of average volume to fill 1% of float
Forecast
Stored scenarios from the last pipeline run. The model that wrote them is named on each row; no forecast is generated when you look at this page.
| Horizon | Ref | Bull high | Base range | Bear low | P10 → P90 | P(up) | Confidence | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D
2026-10-23 17:35:24 |
4.00 | 4.06 +1.5% | 3.98 → 4.02 -0.5% … +0.5% |
3.94 -1.5% | 3.96 → 4.04 | 50.0% | 69 760 bars, blended vol 21%, score 50, coverage 96%% |
LOW
HV 21.0% ann. · 760 bars |
| 5D
2026-10-23 17:35:24 |
4.00 | 4.12 +3.0% | 3.96 → 4.04 -1.0% … +1.0% |
3.88 -3.0% | 3.92 → 4.08 | 50.0% | 69 760 bars, blended vol 21%, score 50, coverage 96%% |
LOW
HV 21.0% ann. · 760 bars |
| 1M
2026-10-23 17:35:24 |
4.00 | 4.24 +6.0% | 3.92 → 4.08 -2.0% … +2.0% |
3.76 -6.0% | 3.80 → 4.20 | 50.0% | 69 760 bars, blended vol 21%, score 50, coverage 96%% |
LOW
HV 21.0% ann. · 760 bars |
| 3M
2026-10-23 17:35:24 |
4.00 | 4.42 +10.5% | 3.82 → 4.18 -4.5% … +4.5% |
3.58 -10.5% | 3.70 → 4.30 | 50.0% | 69 760 bars, blended vol 21%, score 50, coverage 96%% |
LOW
HV 21.0% ann. · 760 bars |
| 6M
2026-10-23 17:35:24 |
4.00 | 4.60 +15.0% | 3.76 → 4.24 -6.0% … +6.0% |
3.40 -15.0% | 3.52 → 4.48 | 50.0% | 69 760 bars, blended vol 21%, score 50, coverage 96%% |
LOW
HV 21.0% ann. · 760 bars |
| 12M
2026-10-23 17:35:24 |
4.00 | 4.80 +20.0% | 3.70 → 4.30 -7.5% … +7.5% |
3.20 -20.0% | 3.40 → 4.60 | 50.0% | 69 760 bars, blended vol 21%, score 50, coverage 96%% |
LOW
HV 21.0% ann. · 760 bars |
Base case
mildly positive
band -0.5% … +0.5% · 4.00 – 4.00
Bear case
Downside triggers: momentum is fading. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.
band -1.5% … -0.5% · 4.00 – 4.00
Catalysts the model is watching
- Demo synthetic: FINO cut to neutral on valuation
- Demo synthetic: FINO cut to neutral on valuation
- Demo synthetic: FINO cut to neutral on valuation
- Volatility compression (squeeze)
Key risks & invalidation
- Historic drawdown deeper than 43%
Model assumptions
- Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 21% annualised).
- The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).
- Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.
- Index regime assumed: sideways.
- Close below the 5.18 support band or the strategy stop.
- Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.
- Volatility expanding beyond 34% annualised invalidates position sizing.
- Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change).
Reference price 4.00 at
2026-10-23 17:35:24 · regime at generation
sideways · data
demo · freshness
0s.
These bands are conditional distributions from stored inputs, not advice or a promise about outcomes.
Fundamentals
Latest stored period · FY2026 · filed 2026-12-31
Revenue$515MYoY +6.2%
EPS (TTM)0.16growth +7.1%
Net income$94.9M
Free cash flow$95.3Mmargin 16.0%
Gross margin38.1%
Operating margin20.9%
ROE4.8%
ROIC10.8%
Debt / equity1.98
Current ratio1.20
Interest cover22.74×
Net debt$80.4M
P/E24.97×
P/E forward23.74×
PEG4.84
P/S · P/B · EV/EBITDA4.60 · 1.20 · 17.22
Dividend yield1.29%payout 60%
Buyback yield2.86%
Profit margin18.4%
Cash$149M
Stored periods (raw rows, newest first)
| Period | Revenue | Revenue YoY | EPS | Gross margin | Op margin | FCF margin | ROE | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 FY | $515M | +6.2% | 0.16 | 38.1% | 20.9% | 16.0% | 4.8% | 2026-12-31 |
| FY2025 FY | $483M | +6.0% | 0.15 | 36.8% | 20.2% | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2025-12-31 |
| FY2024 FY | $451M | +4.6% | 0.14 | 39.5% | 19.5% | 16.1% | 23.8% | 2024-12-31 |
| FY2023 FY | $429M | +6.4% | 0.14 | 38.1% | 20.7% | 13.0% | 4.1% | 2023-12-31 |
| Q4 2026 Q | $107M | +6.4% | 0.03 | 38.1% | 20.7% | 13.0% | 4.1% | 2026-07-01 |
Earnings and estimates
No future report date stored.
Implied movenot storedfrom the stored option chain
EPS estimatenot stored
Revenue estimatenot stored
Consensus index49.9stored on 0–100 in the snapshot; higher = more constructive
% buy ratingsnot storednull on this row — the snapshot job did not store it
Target upsidenot stored
Gap risk0.39%median overnight gap
Time of daynot stated
Nothing stored yet.
No past report rows stored for this symbol — surprise history appears after ingestion.
Analyst actions
Stored rating changes and targets. The consensus numbers are the same ones the sentiment component read.
Nothing stored yet.
No analyst actions stored for this symbol.
Ownership, insiders and short interest
Inst. position changenot storedreported change vs the prior stored quarter
Net insider (USD)not stored
Short % of floatnot stored
Days to covernot stored
No ownership rows stored.
13F-style holdings, insider filings and short-interest settlements are separate ingestion jobs; none of them has written a row for this symbol.
The score card marks the institutional component as incomplete instead of guessing.
Options
No chain stored for this symbol
No option chain stored.
Chains are only stored for symbols the options job covers, and only for the expiry it snapshots.
Open the flow page for a symbol that has data, or run the options ingestion.
News mentioning FINO
Stored headlines linked to this security, newest first. Sentiment scores come from the stored scorer, not from this page.
Demo synthetic: FINO cut to neutral on valuation
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: FINO cut to neutral on valuation
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: FINO cut to neutral on valuation
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: FINO cut to neutral on valuation
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: FINO cut to neutral on valuation
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.