Will there be no Hormuz agreement?
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms? · restricted by venue
Not enough history
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Heuristic thresholds: moves under 2 points are treated as noise, 10 points or more as a sharp move. The rule is published so it can be checked, not so it can be trusted blindly.
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Yes | 92.0% |
| No | 8.1% |
- Resolution source
- Not published by the venue for this market.
- End date
- 04 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC
- Data source
- polymarket-gamma · captured 25 Oct 2026, 21:05 UTC
- Restricted
- Yes — the venue restricts trading in this market. Qvicom shows the price and does not offer access.
- Category
- politics (auto)
- Venue tags
- Iran, Senate, Midterms, Politics, Elections, Geopolitics, United States, Strait of Hormuz
This market will resolve to "Hormuz Agreement; R Senate" if a Hormuz Agreement is announced by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Hormuz Agreement; D Senate" if a Hormuz Agreement is announced by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "No Hormuz Agreement" immediately if a Hormuz Agreement is not announced by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Hormuz Agreement: A "Hormuz Agreement" will be considered to have occurred if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is announced by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Hormuz Agreement component to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themsel…