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Forecasting polls

One question per market: what do you think the probability is? Answers are pooled into a crowd figure and shown beside the venue price. No money, no prizes, no ranking by profit — and no aggregate until 8 people have answered, because a median of four is just one opinion with a decimal point.

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Your answers 0 sign in to answer
Away from the crowd 0 5 points or more from the median
With the crowd 0 within 5 points of the median
Answers on file 0 counted, never attributed on a page
Market Venue Crowd Gap Answers Yours
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? 91.5% — — 0 hidden < 8 Sign in
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House 0.9% — — 0 hidden < 8 Sign in
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 0.1% — — 0 hidden < 8 Sign in
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 0.1% — — 0 hidden < 8 Sign in
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 0.2% — — 0 hidden < 8 Sign in
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 0.1% — — 0 hidden < 8 Sign in
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 0.1% — — 0 hidden < 8 Sign in
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 0.1% — — 0 hidden < 8 Sign in
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House 65.5% — — 0 hidden < 8 Sign in
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 0.3% — — 0 hidden < 8 Sign in
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 0.1% — — 0 hidden < 8 Sign in
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 0.2% — — 0 hidden < 8 Sign in
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 0.1% — — 0 hidden < 8 Sign in
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 0.2% — — 0 hidden < 8 Sign in
Chiefs vs. Seahawks 41.5% — — 0 hidden < 8 Sign in
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 0.1% — — 0 hidden < 8 Sign in
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 0.1% — — 0 hidden < 8 Sign in
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? 0.1% — — 0 hidden < 8 Sign in
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 0.1% — — 0 hidden < 8 Sign in
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 0.3% — — 0 hidden < 8 Sign in
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? 0.2% — — 0 hidden < 8 Sign in
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? 0.1% — — 0 hidden < 8 Sign in
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? 0.1% — — 0 hidden < 8 Sign in
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? 0.1% — — 0 hidden < 8 Sign in

Venue prices are the last stored capture, not a live quote. A gap is an observation about a sample, not a suggestion to trade: crowds are often wrong together, and a poll is not advice.