Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Brazil Presidential Election · restricted by venue
Range 17.5% – 59.6%. 8 daily rows from Qvicom's own capture, plus any CLOB history stored for this market.
Rising sharply (+38.1 points)
Implied probability rose 38.1 points across 8 daily observations. This is a description of past prices, not a forecast.
Heuristic thresholds: moves under 2 points are treated as noise, 10 points or more as a sharp move. The rule is published so it can be checked, not so it can be trusted blindly.
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Yes | 87.1% |
| No | 13.0% |
- Resolution source
- https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/
- End date
- 26 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC
- Data source
- polymarket-gamma · captured 25 Oct 2026, 23:15 UTC
- Restricted
- Yes — the venue restricts trading in this market. Qvicom shows the price and does not offer access.
- Category
- politics (auto)
- Venue tags
- Politics, Macro Election 2, Main Election, Brazil, Global Elections, World Elections, World
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).