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Markets · Politics

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · restricted by venue

Sign in to watch this market What does the crowd think?
stale · last good capture 10 days ago Source: Polymarket Gamma · last capture 25 Oct 2026, 23:15 UTC · 626 ms Figures below are the last values that were successfully read, not the current market.
Implied probability 20.0% venue price, not a Qvicom forecast
24h move +1.0 pts reported by the venue
Liquidity $303,227 24h volume $137,553
What Qvicom can say about the movement

Not enough history

Qvicom needs at least 3 captured points before describing a move.

Heuristic thresholds: moves under 2 points are treated as noise, 10 points or more as a sharp move. The rule is published so it can be checked, not so it can be trusted blindly.

Outcomes
Outcomes and prices
OutcomePrice
Yes 20.0%
No 80.0%
Resolution and provenance
Resolution source
Not published by the venue for this market.
End date
01 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
Data source
polymarket-gamma · captured 25 Oct 2026, 23:15 UTC
Restricted
Yes — the venue restricts trading in this market. Qvicom shows the price and does not offer access.
Category
politics (auto)
Venue tags
Military Strikes, Politics, Geopolitics, World, Middle East, Israel, Iran, Trump
Resolution criteria, as published by the venue

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Where this number comes from. It is Polymarket's own implied price, captured by Qvicom Signal and stored with the time it was read. It is a price, not a probability anyone at Qvicom computed, and not advice. This application cannot place an order, hold funds or give you access to any venue. Qvicom Signal is independent research software and is not affiliated with Polymarket or any venue it reads.