Costco Wholesale

COST CONSTRUCTIVE LOW EQUITY DEMO

$83.22 -0.87% 1-day change from the stored snapshot · 2 days ago

DEMO DATASET last stored bar 2026-10-23 · scores computed 2026-10-25 04:13:59 · every figure below is read from these rows, nothing is computed in the browser

Price · stored daily bars

126 bars ending 2026-10-23 · demo data

Indicators are computed from the same stored closes the score used; the forecast fan is drawn from qm_predictions, not from a live model call. how this is drawn

Open$84.31

Day range$84.73 / $82.59

Prev close$83.95

Volume29.1M

RVOL 30d1.30×session volume over stored 30-day average

Avg $ volume$1.79B

Market cap$156B

HV2021.5% ann.

Beta0.66

RSI(14)64.4

ATR %3.34%

Max drawdown-37.0%

52-week rangefrom $69.49 to $111.21

52-week low / high$69.49 / $111.21

From 52w high-25.2%

Liquiditynot storeddays of average volume to fill 1% of float

Forecast

Stored scenarios from the last pipeline run. The model that wrote them is named on each row; no forecast is generated when you look at this page.

Horizon	Ref	Bull high	Base range	Bear low	P10 → P90	P(up)	Confidence	Risk
1D 2026-10-25 04:13:59	83.22	84.47 +1.5%	82.80 → 84.05 -0.5% … +1.0%	81.97 -1.5%	82.39 → 84.47	55.0%	59 760 bars, blended vol 23%, score 63, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 22.9% ann. · 760 bars
5D 2026-10-25 04:13:59	83.22	86.55 +4.0%	82.39 → 84.88 -1.0% … +2.0%	80.72 -3.0%	81.56 → 85.72	55.0%	59 760 bars, blended vol 23%, score 63, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 22.9% ann. · 760 bars
1M 2026-10-25 04:13:59	83.22	89.88 +8.0%	81.56 → 86.55 -2.0% … +4.0%	78.23 -6.0%	79.06 → 88.21	55.0%	59 760 bars, blended vol 23%, score 63, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 22.9% ann. · 760 bars
3M 2026-10-25 04:13:59	83.22	94.45 +13.5%	79.48 → 88.21 -4.5% … +6.0%	74.48 -10.5%	75.73 → 91.96	55.0%	59 760 bars, blended vol 23%, score 63, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 22.9% ann. · 760 bars
6M 2026-10-25 04:13:59	83.22	99.45 +19.5%	78.23 → 90.71 -6.0% … +9.0%	70.74 -15.0%	73.23 → 95.70	55.0%	59 760 bars, blended vol 23%, score 63, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 22.9% ann. · 760 bars
12M 2026-10-25 04:13:59	83.22	106.11 +27.5%	76.98 → 93.62 -7.5% … +12.5%	64.50 -22.5%	68.66 → 101.94	55.0%	59 760 bars, blended vol 23%, score 63, coverage 100%%	MEDIUM HV 22.9% ann. · 760 bars

Bull case

If fundamentals scoring above the coverage median, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.

band +1.0% … +1.5% · 83.22 – 83.22

Base case

mildly positive

band -0.5% … +1.0% · 83.22 – 83.22

Bear case

Downside triggers: a market-wide risk-off move alone can carry the 5–20th percentile band. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.

band -1.5% … -0.5% · 83.22 – 83.22

Catalysts the model is watching

Earnings report 2026-12-10 (as scheduled)
Demo synthetic: options market shows elevated COST skew into event
Demo synthetic: COST confirms exploratory talks with supplier
Demo synthetic: COST guides below consensus on cost pressure
Street target implies 3.1%

Key risks & invalidation

Binary event: 2026-12-10

Model assumptions

Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 22.9% annualised).
The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).
Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.
Index regime assumed: sideways.
Close below the 85.73 support band or the strategy stop.
Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.
Volatility expanding beyond 37% annualised invalidates position sizing.
Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change).

Reference price 83.22 at 2026-10-25 04:13:59 · regime at generation sideways · data demo · freshness 112439s. These bands are conditional distributions from stored inputs, not advice or a promise about outcomes.

Fundamentals

Latest stored period · FY2026 · filed 2026-12-31

snapshot JSON

Revenue$52.8BYoY +5.9%

EPS (TTM)6.57growth +5.4%

Net income$12.3B

Free cash flow$13.9Bmargin 16.8%

Gross margin50.1%

Operating margin27.6%

ROE40.1%

ROIC12.0%

Debt / equity1.55

Current ratio1.31

Interest cover13.04×

Net debt$15.1B

P/E12.94×

P/E forward12.38×

PEG2.86

P/S · P/B · EV/EBITDA3.01 · 5.19 · 8.92

Dividend yield1.55%payout 60%

Buyback yield3.06%

Profit margin23.3%

Cash$20.6B

Stored periods (raw rows, newest first)

Period	Revenue	Revenue YoY	EPS	Gross margin	Op margin	FCF margin	ROE	Filed
FY2026 FY	$52.8B	+5.9%	6.57	50.1%	27.6%	16.8%	40.1%	2026-12-31
FY2025 FY	$49.2B	+4.6%	6.12	55.7%	23.8%	17.7%	18.5%	2025-12-31
FY2024 FY	$47.6B	+6.0%	5.92	53.3%	27.1%	18.5%	12.4%	2024-12-31
FY2023 FY	$45.3B	+3.0%	5.63	54.5%	23.8%	17.1%	40.4%	2023-12-31
Q4 2026 Q	$11.3B	+3.0%	1.41	54.5%	23.8%	17.1%	40.4%	2026-07-01

Earnings and estimates

Next stored report 2026-12-10 · 33 day(s) away

Implied move6.9%from the stored option chain

EPS estimate1.75

Revenue estimate$13.2B

Consensus index48.0stored on 0–100 in the snapshot; higher = more constructive

% buy ratingsnot storednull on this row — the snapshot job did not store it

Target upsidenot stored

Gap risk0.43%median overnight gap

Time of daybmo

Report	EPS est	EPS actual	Surprise	Rev est	Rev actual	Guidance	Source
2026-12-10	1.75	not stored	not stored	$13.2B	not stored	none	synthetic_demo
2026-10-23	1.73	not stored	not stored	$13.2B	not stored	none	synthetic_demo
2026-07-19	1.76	2.04	+15.7%	$13.2B	$13.9B	lower	synthetic_demo
2026-06-01	1.72	1.55	-9.7%	$13.2B	$13.9B	lower	synthetic_demo
2026-04-14	1.80	1.65	-8.5%	$13.2B	$13.0B	lower	synthetic_demo
2026-02-25	1.73	1.76	+2.1%	$13.2B	$13.8B	maintain	synthetic_demo
2026-01-08	1.61	1.83	+13.3%	$13.2B	$13.6B	lower	synthetic_demo
2025-11-21	1.76	1.80	+2.2%	$13.2B	$13.8B	raise	synthetic_demo

As of	Horizon	EPS avg	EPS high	EPS low	Revenue	Analysts	90d revisions
2026-10-25	FY1	7.22	7.59	5.78	$55.9B	37	8 / 2
2026-10-25	FY2	7.32	7.52	7.20	$55.9B	26	10 / 0
2026-10-25	Q1	1.88	2.12	1.58	$13.3B	22	1 / 5
2026-10-25	Q2	1.82	1.99	1.74	$13.5B	26	7 / 3
2026-10-24	FY1	7.22	7.59	5.78	$55.9B	37	8 / 2
2026-10-24	FY2	7.32	7.52	7.20	$55.9B	26	10 / 0
2026-10-24	Q1	1.88	2.12	1.58	$13.3B	22	1 / 5
2026-10-24	Q2	1.82	1.99	1.74	$13.5B	26	7 / 3

Analyst actions

Stored rating changes and targets. The consensus numbers are the same ones the sentiment component read.

Date	Firm	Action	From	To	Target	Consensus	% buy
2026-10-13	Meridian Research	downgrade	Buy	Outperform	$96.52	4.29	12%
2026-09-04	Northgate Securities	initiated	Neutral	Neutral	$73.51	4.29	4%
2026-07-15	Northgate Securities	upgrade	Hold	Hold	$90.53	4.29	24%
2026-05-25	Halcyon Partners	initiated	Hold	Hold	$87.80	4.29	10%
2026-04-19	Blue Harbor Capital Research	initiated	Hold	Hold	$80.53	4.29	11%

Ownership, insiders and short interest

Inst. position change-67.5%reported change vs the prior stored quarter

Net insider (USD)not stored

Short % of float0.6%

Days to cover1.0

Period end	Holder	Type	Shares	Value	% float	Change
2026-09-01	Capital Research Global	fund	69.5M	$5.79B	6.0%	not stored
2026-09-01	Capital Research Global	fund	69.5M	$5.79B	6.0%	not stored
2026-09-01	Capital Research Global	fund	69.5M	$5.79B	6.0%	not stored
2026-09-01	Capital Research Global	fund	69.5M	$5.79B	6.0%	not stored
2026-09-01	Capital Research Global	fund	69.5M	$5.79B	6.0%	not stored
2026-09-01	Capital Research Global	fund	69.5M	$5.79B	6.0%	not stored
2026-09-01	Capital Research Global	fund	69.5M	$5.79B	6.0%	not stored
2026-09-01	Capital Research Global	fund	69.5M	$5.79B	6.0%	not stored

Dividends and splits

Ex-date	Pay date	Amount	Frequency	Yield at ex
2026-08-30	2026-09-17	$0.321	quarterly	1.55%
2026-08-29	2026-09-16	$0.321	quarterly	1.55%
2026-08-28	2026-09-15	$0.321	quarterly	1.55%
2026-05-31	2026-06-18	$0.323	quarterly	1.55%
2026-05-30	2026-06-17	$0.323	quarterly	1.55%
2026-05-29	2026-06-16	$0.323	quarterly	1.55%
2026-03-22	2026-04-09	$0.324	quarterly	1.55%
2026-03-21	2026-04-08	$0.324	quarterly	1.55%
2026-03-20	2026-04-07	$0.324	quarterly	1.55%
2025-12-14	2026-01-01	$0.325	quarterly	1.55%

Nothing stored yet.

Options

No chain stored for this symbol

Full chain Flow

No option chain stored.

Chains are only stored for symbols the options job covers, and only for the expiry it snapshots.

Open the flow page for a symbol that has data, or run the options ingestion.

News mentioning COST

Stored headlines linked to this security, newest first. Sentiment scores come from the stored scorer, not from this page.

Demo synthetic: options market shows elevated COST skew into event

other 10 days ago -11% sentiment importance 0

Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.

Demo synthetic: COST confirms exploratory talks with supplier

mna 11 days ago +28% sentiment importance 0

Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.

Demo synthetic: COST guides below consensus on cost pressure

earnings 16 days ago -44% sentiment importance 0 earnings

Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.

Score

qm_ai_scores row #1427

62.7

composite / 100 · model score-1.0.0

CONSTRUCTIVE risk LOW confidence 54

Technical 25 62.3

Fundamental 25 67.3

Momentum 15 58.3

Sentiment 10 47.5

Institutional 10 39.2

Risk 15 85.8

Why the model scored it this way

RISK Liquidity 96
Average $1789M traded per session
RISK Gap Risk 95
Median overnight gap 0.43% — position sizing must survive opens
SENTIMENT Estimate Revisions 92
Net EPS estimate revisions (90d): 48
RISK Beta 91
Beta 0.66 vs the reference index
RISK Correlation 91
Correlation to benchmark 0.63-year rolling: 0.52
FUNDAMENTAL Return On Equity 90
ROE 40.1%
RISK Sector Risk 89
Sector average volatility 21.5%
RISK Market Risk 85
Benchmark volatility 20.1% · regime: Sideways · normal vol · risk-off
FUNDAMENTAL Coverage 82
Interest coverage 13×
RISK Event Risk Earnings 82
No earnings inside the next 3 weeks
SENTIMENT Analyst Consensus 18
Analyst consensus score 4.29 (1=Strong Buy, 5=Sell) across 5 ratings
FUNDAMENTAL Valuation Pe 82
P/E 12.9× vs sector median 20.3× (discount)
FUNDAMENTAL Valuation Sales 81
P/S 3× vs sector median 5.2×
TECHNICAL Volatility Compression 80
Bollinger width 12%

Scored on synthetic demonstration data. Directionally realistic, not a forecast of any real market.

Category ranks

Position among scored securities in each evidence category.

Category	Score	Rank	Evidence
EVENT_DRIVEN	62.0	1	Dated/observable catalyst: unusual options activity (10 flagged)
EVENT_DRIVEN	62.0	1	Dated/observable catalyst: unusual options activity (6 flagged)
EVENT_DRIVEN	62.0	1	Dated/observable catalyst: unusual options activity (2 flagged)
EVENT_DRIVEN	62.0	1	Dated/observable catalyst: unusual options activity (11 flagged)
EVENT_DRIVEN	62.0	1	Dated/observable catalyst: unusual options activity (7 flagged)
EVENT_DRIVEN	62.0	1	Dated/observable catalyst: unusual options activity (8 flagged)
EVENT_DRIVEN	62.0	1	Dated/observable catalyst: unusual options activity (4 flagged)
EVENT_DRIVEN	62.0	1	Dated/observable catalyst: unusual options activity (9 flagged)
VALUE	61.2	2	P/E 12.9× · PEG 2.86 · P/B 5.2× with ROE 40.1%
VALUE	61.2	2	P/E 12.9× · PEG 2.86 · P/B 5.2× with ROE 40.1%
VALUE	61.2	2	P/E 12.9× · PEG 2.86 · P/B 5.2× with ROE 40.1%
VALUE	61.2	2	P/E 12.9× · PEG 2.86 · P/B 5.2× with ROE 40.1%
VALUE	61.2	2	P/E 12.9× · PEG 2.86 · P/B 5.2× with ROE 40.1%
VALUE	61.2	2	P/E 12.9× · PEG 2.86 · P/B 5.2× with ROE 40.1%
VALUE	61.2	2	P/E 12.9× · PEG 2.86 · P/B 5.2× with ROE 40.1%
VALUE	61.2	2	P/E 12.9× · PEG 2.86 · P/B 5.2× with ROE 40.1%
DEFENSIVE	57.0	3	Volatility 21.5% with beta 0.66 and fundamental quality 67
DEFENSIVE	57.0	3	Volatility 21.5% with beta 0.66 and fundamental quality 67
DEFENSIVE	57.0	3	Volatility 21.5% with beta 0.66 and fundamental quality 67
DEFENSIVE	57.0	3	Volatility 21.5% with beta 0.66 and fundamental quality 67
DEFENSIVE	57.0	3	Volatility 21.5% with beta 0.66 and fundamental quality 67
DEFENSIVE	57.0	3	Volatility 21.5% with beta 0.66 and fundamental quality 67
DEFENSIVE	57.0	3	Volatility 21.5% with beta 0.66 and fundamental quality 67
DEFENSIVE	57.0	3	Volatility 21.5% with beta 0.66 and fundamental quality 67

Levels

Stored support/resistance from the snapshot row, not drawn from the chart in the browser.

Resistance (stored): $79.50
Support (stored): $75.22
20-day SMA: $79.59
50-day SMA: $79.38
200-day SMA: $85.73
Trend: up
Above SMA50 / SMA200: yes / no
From 52w high: -25.2%
MACD histogram: 0.564
RSI(14): 64.4
Relative strength (3m): +4.2%
RS rank: not stored /100

Sentiment

Stored buckets (each row is one scoring run over the news window).

Bucket start	Score	Label	Mentions	Method
2026-10-22 04:00	+45%	positive	30	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 13:00	-49%	negative	4	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 14:00	-49%	negative	4	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 16:00	-49%	negative	4	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 17:00	-49%	negative	4	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-24 23:00	-49%	negative	4	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-25 02:00	-49%	negative	4	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-25 04:00	-49%	negative	4	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment

Catalysts and risks

Stored catalysts

Earnings report 2026-12-10 (as scheduled)
Demo synthetic: options market shows elevated COST skew into event
Demo synthetic: COST confirms exploratory talks with supplier
Demo synthetic: COST guides below consensus on cost pressure
Street target implies 3.1%

Stored risks

Binary event: 2026-12-10

Same sector

Ranked by stored composite score.

Symbol	Price	1d	Score	Stance
VEGA	$10.40	+0.57%	61.3	CONSTRUCTIVE
PEP	$16.68	-1.98%	60.7	CONSTRUCTIVE
MDLZ	$164.74	-0.04%	58.3	CONSTRUCTIVE
KO	$69.83	-1.91%	58.0	NEUTRAL
PM	$24.05	-1.55%	55.7	NEUTRAL
PG	$32.81	-2.20%	54.8	NEUTRAL

Validation

Forecasts on this symbol whose horizon has matured, scored against the stored bars.

All models

Nothing to score yet: settle the matured forecasts with php bin/pipeline.php --cmd=settle and this table fills with realised-versus-forecast rows.

Peer comparison

Symbol	Price	1d	Cap	P/E	PEG	P/S	P/B	Rev growth	EPS growth	ROE	Gross	Op margin
KO	$69.83	-1.91%	$65.5B	8.85×	2.70	1.65×	0.87×	+3.7%	+4.2%	9.9%	42.2%	22.2%
PM	$24.05	-1.55%	$24.6B	11.60×	not stored	1.91×	4.61×	-1.8%	-1.2%	39.7%	38.6%	18.8%
PEP	$16.68	-1.98%	$18.0B	11.93×	not stored	1.68×	2.87×	-0.1%	-1.2%	24.0%	32.2%	16.7%
PG	$32.81	-2.20%	$14.0B	21.61×	not stored	4.70×	6.46×	+0.8%	-0.5%	29.9%	41.5%	24.7%
MDLZ	$164.74	-0.04%	$697B	33.45×	2.60	11.14×	0.86×	+14.0%	+14.5%	2.6%	73.5%	35.0%
WMT	$235.28	-0.26%	$1.35T	31.14×	4.89	9.82×	5.59×	+5.7%	+8.9%	18.0%	66.0%	31.7%

What this page did not do.

It did not fetch a quote, call an external model, or extend the chart. It read 168800 stored bar rows in total across the universe (demo data, last trade 2026-10-23), and the score shown here was written at 2026-10-25 04:13 by model score-1.0.0.