Merck & Co.

MRK CONSTRUCTIVE MEDIUM EQUITY DEMO

$179.06 -1.52% 1-day change from the stored snapshot · 2 days ago

DEMO DATASET last stored bar 2026-10-23 · scores computed 2026-10-25 04:13:59 · every figure below is read from these rows, nothing is computed in the browser

Price · stored daily bars

126 bars ending 2026-10-23 · demo data

Indicators are computed from the same stored closes the score used; the forecast fan is drawn from qm_predictions, not from a live model call. how this is drawn

Open$182.17

Day range$182.86 / $178.23

Prev close$181.83

Volume9.46M

RVOL 30d1.17×session volume over stored 30-day average

Avg $ volume$1.43B

Market cap$121B

HV2028.3% ann.

Beta0.49

RSI(14)53.9

ATR %3.13%

Max drawdown-49.0%

52-week rangefrom $161.11 to $309.60

52-week low / high$161.11 / $309.60

From 52w high-42.2%

Liquiditynot storeddays of average volume to fill 1% of float

Forecast

Stored scenarios from the last pipeline run. The model that wrote them is named on each row; no forecast is generated when you look at this page.

Horizon	Ref	Bull high	Base range	Bear low	P10 → P90	P(up)	Confidence	Risk
1D 2026-10-25 04:13:59	179.06	181.75 +1.5%	178.16 → 180.85 -0.5% … +1.0%	176.37 -1.5%	177.27 → 181.75	55.0%	56 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 60, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 26.4% ann. · 760 bars
5D 2026-10-25 04:13:59	179.06	186.22 +4.0%	177.27 → 182.64 -1.0% … +2.0%	173.69 -3.0%	175.48 → 184.43	55.0%	56 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 60, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 26.4% ann. · 760 bars
1M 2026-10-25 04:13:59	179.06	193.38 +8.0%	175.48 → 184.43 -2.0% … +3.0%	168.32 -6.0%	170.11 → 189.80	55.0%	56 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 60, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 26.4% ann. · 760 bars
3M 2026-10-25 04:13:59	179.06	203.23 +13.5%	173.69 → 189.80 -3.0% … +6.0%	160.26 -10.5%	165.63 → 197.86	55.0%	56 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 60, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 26.4% ann. · 760 bars
6M 2026-10-25 04:13:59	179.06	211.29 +18.0%	168.32 → 195.18 -6.0% … +9.0%	152.20 -15.0%	157.57 → 205.92	55.0%	56 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 60, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 26.4% ann. · 760 bars
12M 2026-10-25 04:13:59	179.06	223.83 +25.0%	165.63 → 201.44 -7.5% … +12.5%	138.77 -22.5%	152.20 → 214.87	55.0%	56 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 60, coverage 100%%	MEDIUM HV 26.4% ann. · 760 bars

Bull case

If RSI mid-range — room to extend, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.

band +1.0% … +1.5% · 179.06 – 179.06

Base case

mildly positive

band -0.5% … +1.0% · 179.06 – 179.06

Bear case

Downside triggers: a market-wide risk-off move alone can carry the 5–20th percentile band. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.

band -1.5% … -0.5% · 179.06 – 179.06

Catalysts the model is watching

Earnings report 2026-12-10 (after close)
Demo synthetic: MRK cut to neutral on valuation
Demo synthetic: MRK cut to neutral on valuation
Demo synthetic: MRK guides below consensus on cost pressure
Street target implies 17.9%

Key risks & invalidation

Historic drawdown deeper than 49%
Binary event: 2026-12-10

Model assumptions

Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 26.4% annualised).
The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).
Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.
Index regime assumed: sideways.
Close below the 209.11 support band or the strategy stop.
Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.
Volatility expanding beyond 42% annualised invalidates position sizing.
Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change).

Reference price 179.06 at 2026-10-25 04:13:59 · regime at generation sideways · data demo · freshness 112439s. These bands are conditional distributions from stored inputs, not advice or a promise about outcomes.

Fundamentals

Latest stored period · FY2026 · filed 2026-12-31

snapshot JSON

Revenue$21.8BYoY +11.3%

EPS (TTM)8.33growth +12.9%

Net income$5.65B

Free cash flow$4.29Bmargin 30.4%

Gross margin55.5%

Operating margin26.4%

ROE27.0%

ROIC16.8%

Debt / equity2.24

Current ratio0.71

Interest cover9.47×

Net debt$769M

P/E21.53×

P/E forward19.20×

PEG1.78

P/S · P/B · EV/EBITDA5.57 · 5.82 · 14.85

Dividend yield1.29%payout 37%

Buyback yield2.33%

Profit margin25.9%

Cash$2.84B

Stored periods (raw rows, newest first)

Period	Revenue	Revenue YoY	EPS	Gross margin	Op margin	FCF margin	ROE	Filed
FY2026 FY	$21.8B	+11.3%	8.33	55.5%	26.4%	30.4%	27.0%	2026-12-31
FY2025 FY	$19.3B	+12.6%	7.38	51.3%	26.6%	26.2%	25.6%	2025-12-31
FY2024 FY	$17.4B	+12.9%	6.64	51.0%	26.0%	27.4%	8.5%	2024-12-31
FY2023 FY	$15.9B	+11.0%	6.06	57.2%	29.8%	24.4%	17.8%	2023-12-31
Q4 2026 Q	$3.97B	+11.0%	1.51	57.2%	29.8%	24.4%	17.8%	2026-07-01

Earnings and estimates

Next stored report 2026-12-10 · 33 day(s) away

Implied move6.1%from the stored option chain

EPS estimate1.98

Revenue estimate$5.45B

Consensus index57.6stored on 0–100 in the snapshot; higher = more constructive

% buy ratingsnot storednull on this row — the snapshot job did not store it

Target upsidenot stored

Gap risk0.46%median overnight gap

Time of dayamc

Report	EPS est	EPS actual	Surprise	Rev est	Rev actual	Guidance	Source
2026-12-10	1.98	not stored	not stored	$5.45B	not stored	none	synthetic_demo
2026-10-23	2.03	not stored	not stored	$5.45B	not stored	none	synthetic_demo
2026-07-19	2.19	2.34	+6.7%	$5.45B	$5.27B	maintain	synthetic_demo
2026-06-01	2.26	2.26	-0.4%	$5.45B	$5.27B	raise	synthetic_demo
2026-04-14	2.18	1.95	-10.7%	$5.45B	$5.34B	raise	synthetic_demo
2026-02-25	2.14	2.26	+5.8%	$5.45B	$5.73B	lower	synthetic_demo
2026-01-08	2.18	1.92	-11.7%	$5.45B	$5.41B	maintain	synthetic_demo
2025-11-21	2.09	2.16	+3.3%	$5.45B	$5.66B	lower	synthetic_demo

As of	Horizon	EPS avg	EPS high	EPS low	Revenue	Analysts	90d revisions
2026-10-25	FY1	8.97	9.17	6.76	$22.9B	7	11 / 0
2026-10-25	FY2	8.84	9.08	7.57	$22.5B	28	10 / 3
2026-10-25	Q1	2.38	2.47	2.10	$5.80B	15	11 / 9
2026-10-25	Q2	2.32	2.69	1.77	$5.87B	13	8 / 3
2026-10-24	FY1	8.97	9.17	6.76	$22.9B	7	11 / 0
2026-10-24	FY2	8.84	9.08	7.57	$22.5B	28	10 / 3
2026-10-24	Q1	2.38	2.47	2.10	$5.80B	15	11 / 9
2026-10-24	Q2	2.32	2.69	1.77	$5.87B	13	8 / 3

Analyst actions

Stored rating changes and targets. The consensus numbers are the same ones the sentiment component read.

Date	Firm	Action	From	To	Target	Consensus	% buy
2026-10-17	Kestrel Analytics	downgrade	Buy	Buy	$213.07	3.43	22%
2026-09-05	Blue Harbor Capital Research	maintained	Neutral	Neutral	$181.29	3.43	39%
2026-07-21	Northgate Securities	initiated	Hold	Hold	$228.67	3.43	40%
2026-05-22	Kestrel Analytics	upgrade	Hold	Outperform	$215.80	3.43	37%
2026-04-08	Northgate Securities	maintained	Outperform	Outperform	$216.62	3.43	31%

Ownership, insiders and short interest

Inst. position change-67.9%reported change vs the prior stored quarter

Net insider (USD)$0.00

Short % of float0.9%

Days to cover1.5

Period end	Holder	Type	Shares	Value	% float	Change
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	30.3M	$5.43B	7.2%	not stored
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	30.3M	$5.43B	7.2%	not stored
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	30.3M	$5.43B	7.2%	not stored
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	30.3M	$5.43B	7.2%	not stored
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	30.3M	$5.43B	7.2%	not stored
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	30.3M	$5.43B	7.2%	not stored
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	30.3M	$5.43B	7.2%	not stored
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	30.3M	$5.43B	7.2%	not stored

Trade date	Owner	Title	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
2026-08-28	Demo Officer 364508	Director	Option Exercise (option)	60.6k	$158.36	$10.8M	1.43M
2026-06-22	Demo Officer 9ECC1D	Director	Grant	84.5k	$178.02	$15.1M	2.88M
2026-06-02	Demo Officer 91833B	Director	Buy - Open Market	54.6k	$195.44	$9.77M	1.67M

Dividends and splits

Ex-date	Pay date	Amount	Frequency	Yield at ex
2026-08-30	2026-09-17	$0.578	quarterly	1.29%
2026-08-29	2026-09-16	$0.578	quarterly	1.29%
2026-08-28	2026-09-15	$0.578	quarterly	1.29%
2026-05-31	2026-06-18	$0.581	quarterly	1.29%
2026-05-30	2026-06-17	$0.581	quarterly	1.29%
2026-05-29	2026-06-16	$0.581	quarterly	1.29%
2026-03-01	2026-03-19	$0.583	quarterly	1.29%
2026-02-28	2026-03-18	$0.583	quarterly	1.29%
2026-02-27	2026-03-17	$0.583	quarterly	1.29%
2025-11-30	2025-12-18	$0.585	quarterly	1.29%

Nothing stored yet.

Options

No chain stored for this symbol

Full chain Flow

No option chain stored.

Chains are only stored for symbols the options job covers, and only for the expiry it snapshots.

Open the flow page for a symbol that has data, or run the options ingestion.

News mentioning MRK

Stored headlines linked to this security, newest first. Sentiment scores come from the stored scorer, not from this page.

Demo synthetic: MRK cut to neutral on valuation

analyst 12 days ago -31% sentiment importance 0

Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.

Demo synthetic: MRK cut to neutral on valuation

analyst 13 days ago -56% sentiment importance 0

Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.

Demo synthetic: MRK guides below consensus on cost pressure

earnings 16 days ago -62% sentiment importance 0 earnings

Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.

Score

qm_ai_scores row #1446

59.8

composite / 100 · model score-1.0.0

CONSTRUCTIVE risk MEDIUM confidence 51

Technical 25 56.6

Fundamental 25 63.2

Momentum 15 50.2

Sentiment 10 63.3

Institutional 10 41.9

Risk 15 78.8

Why the model scored it this way

RISK Liquidity 96
Average $1434.2M traded per session
SENTIMENT Sentiment Delta 95
30-day sentiment change 17.1 pts
SENTIMENT Recent Headline Tone 5
Last items: 0 positive / 3 negative headlines
RISK Gap Risk 95
Median overnight gap 0.46% — position sizing must survive opens
RISK Correlation 94
Correlation to benchmark 0.63-year rolling: 0.41
SENTIMENT Estimate Revisions 92
Net EPS estimate revisions (90d): 75
RISK Sector Risk 88
Sector average volatility 22.4%
RISK Beta 87
Beta 0.49 vs the reference index
RISK Market Risk 85
Benchmark volatility 20.1% · regime: Sideways · normal vol · risk-off
FUNDAMENTAL Return On Equity 83
ROE 27%
FUNDAMENTAL Free Cash Flow 82
FCF margin 30.4%
RISK Event Risk Earnings 82
No earnings inside the next 3 weeks
TECHNICAL Macd Signal 79
MACD(12,26,9) bullish, histogram 0.069
SENTIMENT Price Target Gap 79
Average target implies +17.9% from the last close

Scored on synthetic demonstration data. Directionally realistic, not a forecast of any real market.

Levels

Stored support/resistance from the snapshot row, not drawn from the chart in the browser.

Resistance (stored): $177.25
Support (stored): $166.86
20-day SMA: $178.12
50-day SMA: $174.40
200-day SMA: $209.11
Trend: up
Above SMA50 / SMA200: yes / no
From 52w high: -42.2%
MACD histogram: 0.069
RSI(14): 53.9
Relative strength (3m): -0.5%
RS rank: not stored /100

Sentiment

Stored buckets (each row is one scoring run over the news window).

Bucket start	Score	Label	Mentions	Method
2026-10-22 04:00	+7%	neutral	18	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 13:00	+48%	positive	7	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 14:00	+48%	positive	7	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 16:00	+48%	positive	7	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 17:00	+48%	positive	7	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-24 23:00	+48%	positive	7	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-25 02:00	+48%	positive	7	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-25 04:00	+48%	positive	7	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment

Catalysts and risks

Stored catalysts

Earnings report 2026-12-10 (after close)
Demo synthetic: MRK cut to neutral on valuation
Demo synthetic: MRK cut to neutral on valuation
Demo synthetic: MRK guides below consensus on cost pressure
Street target implies 17.9%

Stored risks

Historic drawdown deeper than 49%
Binary event: 2026-12-10

Same sector

Ranked by stored composite score.

Symbol	Price	1d	Score	Stance
TMO	$380.59	-1.07%	64.1	CONSTRUCTIVE
ABT	$239.64	+1.39%	63.4	CONSTRUCTIVE
AMGN	$384.83	-1.74%	59.8	CONSTRUCTIVE
LLY	$197.94	-1.79%	59.4	CONSTRUCTIVE
ABBV	$106.19	-0.13%	59.3	CONSTRUCTIVE
XLV	$158.00	-1.02%	58.6	CONSTRUCTIVE

Validation

Forecasts on this symbol whose horizon has matured, scored against the stored bars.

All models

Nothing to score yet: settle the matured forecasts with php bin/pipeline.php --cmd=settle and this table fills with realised-versus-forecast rows.

Peer comparison

Symbol	Price	1d	Cap	P/E	PEG	P/S	P/B	Rev growth	EPS growth	ROE	Gross	Op margin
LLY	$197.94	-1.79%	$153B	27.29×	1.86	6.65×	5.94×	+13.8%	+17.2%	21.8%	50.3%	25.1%
ABT	$239.64	+1.39%	$157B	22.19×	3.07	3.94×	4.87×	+8.5%	+8.0%	21.9%	35.3%	20.6%
PFE	$87.79	-1.35%	$66.4B	10.37×	5.88	1.47×	4.90×	+2.7%	+2.1%	47.3%	28.4%	16.9%
ABBV	$106.19	-0.13%	$63.4B	22.60×	1.44	4.83×	3.33×	+15.3%	+20.2%	14.7%	50.3%	25.2%
UNH	$86.76	-1.63%	$49.3B	23.16×	2.42	3.51×	1.42×	+8.8%	+11.6%	6.1%	34.4%	17.5%
JNJ	$292.66	-0.23%	$276B	27.46×	3.46	4.81×	2.60×	+9.4%	+8.9%	9.5%	33.7%	17.6%
AMGN	$384.83	-1.74%	$284B	26.34×	3.93	5.11×	1.16×	+7.5%	+8.3%	4.4%	45.9%	22.5%
TMO	$380.59	-1.07%	$299B	18.63×	4.81	4.44×	5.08×	+4.6%	+4.3%	27.3%	55.3%	28.6%
ISRG	$541.81	-0.90%	$389B	24.16×	1.77	7.14×	4.12×	+12.5%	+15.3%	17.1%	67.4%	31.6%

What this page did not do.

It did not fetch a quote, call an external model, or extend the chart. It read 168800 stored bar rows in total across the universe (demo data, last trade 2026-10-23), and the score shown here was written at 2026-10-25 04:13 by model score-1.0.0.