UnitedHealth Group

UNH CONSTRUCTIVE LOW EQUITY DEMO

$86.76 -1.63% 1-day change from the stored snapshot · 2 days ago

DEMO DATASET last stored bar 2026-10-23 · scores computed 2026-10-25 04:13:59 · every figure below is read from these rows, nothing is computed in the browser

Price · stored daily bars

126 bars ending 2026-10-23 · demo data

Indicators are computed from the same stored closes the score used; the forecast fan is drawn from qm_predictions, not from a live model call. how this is drawn

Open$89.35

Day range$91.53 / $86.01

Prev close$88.20

Volume9.08M

RVOL 30d1.74×session volume over stored 30-day average

Avg $ volume$451M

Market cap$49.3B

HV2023.4% ann.

Beta0.28

RSI(14)55.0

ATR %4.17%

Max drawdown-25.3%

52-week rangefrom $58.64 to $107.51

52-week low / high$58.64 / $107.51

From 52w high-19.3%

Liquiditynot storeddays of average volume to fill 1% of float

Forecast

Stored scenarios from the last pipeline run. The model that wrote them is named on each row; no forecast is generated when you look at this page.

Horizon	Ref	Bull high	Base range	Bear low	P10 → P90	P(up)	Confidence	Risk
1D 2026-10-25 04:13:59	86.76	88.06 +1.5%	86.33 → 87.19 -0.5% … +0.5%	85.46 -1.5%	85.89 → 88.06	54.0%	59 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 58, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 25.7% ann. · 760 bars
5D 2026-10-25 04:13:59	86.76	90.23 +4.0%	85.89 → 88.50 -1.0% … +2.0%	84.16 -3.0%	85.02 → 89.36	54.0%	59 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 58, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 25.7% ann. · 760 bars
1M 2026-10-25 04:13:59	86.76	92.83 +7.0%	85.02 → 89.36 -2.0% … +3.0%	81.55 -6.0%	82.42 → 91.97	54.0%	59 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 58, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 25.7% ann. · 760 bars
3M 2026-10-25 04:13:59	86.76	97.17 +12.0%	82.86 → 91.97 -4.5% … +6.0%	77.65 -10.5%	80.25 → 95.87	54.0%	59 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 58, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 25.7% ann. · 760 bars
6M 2026-10-25 04:13:59	86.76	102.38 +18.0%	81.55 → 93.27 -6.0% … +7.5%	73.75 -15.0%	76.35 → 98.47	54.0%	59 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 58, coverage 100%%	LOW HV 25.7% ann. · 760 bars
12M 2026-10-25 04:13:59	86.76	108.45 +25.0%	80.25 → 97.61 -7.5% … +12.5%	67.24 -22.5%	73.75 → 104.11	54.0%	59 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 58, coverage 100%%	MEDIUM HV 25.7% ann. · 760 bars

Bull case

If RSI mid-range — room to extend, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.

band +1.0% … +1.5% · 86.76 – 86.76

Base case

mildly positive

band -0.5% … +0.5% · 86.76 – 86.76

Bear case

Downside triggers: a market-wide risk-off move alone can carry the 5–20th percentile band. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.

band -1.5% … -0.5% · 86.76 – 86.76

Catalysts the model is watching

Earnings report 2026-12-10 (after close)
Demo synthetic: UNH cut to neutral on valuation
Demo synthetic: UNH cut to neutral on valuation
Demo synthetic: UNH cut to neutral on valuation
Street target implies 1.5%

Key risks & invalidation

Binary event: 2026-12-10

Model assumptions

Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 25.7% annualised).
The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).
Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.
Index regime assumed: sideways.
Close below the 92.11 support band or the strategy stop.
Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.
Volatility expanding beyond 41% annualised invalidates position sizing.
Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change).

Reference price 86.76 at 2026-10-25 04:13:59 · regime at generation sideways · data demo · freshness 112439s. These bands are conditional distributions from stored inputs, not advice or a promise about outcomes.

Fundamentals

Latest stored period · FY2026 · filed 2026-12-31

snapshot JSON

Revenue$13.7BYoY +8.8%

EPS (TTM)3.65growth +11.6%

Net income$2.07B

Free cash flow$1.78Bmargin 11.0%

Gross margin34.4%

Operating margin17.5%

ROE6.1%

ROIC9.1%

Debt / equity1.90

Current ratio2.04

Interest cover6.01×

Net debt$4.80B

P/E23.16×

P/E forward21.14×

PEG2.42

P/S · P/B · EV/EBITDA3.51 · 1.42 · 15.97

Dividend yield1.20%payout 35%

Buyback yield2.71%

Profit margin15.1%

Cash$4.64B

Stored periods (raw rows, newest first)

Period	Revenue	Revenue YoY	EPS	Gross margin	Op margin	FCF margin	ROE	Filed
FY2026 FY	$13.7B	+8.8%	3.65	34.4%	17.5%	11.0%	6.1%	2026-12-31
FY2025 FY	$12.5B	+10.5%	3.33	36.0%	15.8%	13.8%	12.1%	2025-12-31
FY2024 FY	$11.9B	+9.7%	3.18	29.6%	16.0%	11.9%	8.8%	2024-12-31
FY2023 FY	$10.5B	+8.4%	2.80	35.2%	17.7%	11.4%	24.6%	2023-12-31
Q4 2026 Q	$2.62B	+8.4%	0.70	35.2%	17.7%	11.4%	24.6%	2026-07-01

Earnings and estimates

Next stored report 2026-12-10 · 33 day(s) away

Implied move8.1%from the stored option chain

EPS estimate0.86

Revenue estimate$3.42B

Consensus index51.5stored on 0–100 in the snapshot; higher = more constructive

% buy ratingsnot storednull on this row — the snapshot job did not store it

Target upsidenot stored

Gap risk0.58%median overnight gap

Time of dayamc

Report	EPS est	EPS actual	Surprise	Rev est	Rev actual	Guidance	Source
2026-12-10	0.86	not stored	not stored	$3.42B	not stored	none	synthetic_demo
2026-10-23	0.95	not stored	not stored	$3.42B	not stored	none	synthetic_demo
2026-07-19	0.95	0.85	-10.9%	$3.42B	$3.37B	raise	synthetic_demo
2026-06-01	0.93	0.97	+4.5%	$3.42B	$3.40B	lower	synthetic_demo
2026-04-14	0.94	0.97	+3.5%	$3.42B	$3.35B	lower	synthetic_demo
2026-02-25	0.90	1.05	+16.2%	$3.42B	$3.52B	raise	synthetic_demo
2026-01-08	0.87	0.86	-1.1%	$3.42B	$3.47B	maintain	synthetic_demo
2025-11-21	0.90	0.93	+2.9%	$3.42B	$3.36B	raise	synthetic_demo

As of	Horizon	EPS avg	EPS high	EPS low	Revenue	Analysts	90d revisions
2026-10-25	FY1	4.04	4.65	3.32	$14.7B	20	9 / 6
2026-10-25	FY2	4.20	4.86	3.31	$14.4B	34	4 / 9
2026-10-25	Q1	1.04	1.18	0.92	$3.71B	18	7 / 2
2026-10-25	Q2	0.98	1.10	0.84	$3.70B	36	11 / 0
2026-10-24	FY1	4.04	4.65	3.32	$14.7B	20	9 / 6
2026-10-24	FY2	4.20	4.86	3.31	$14.4B	34	4 / 9
2026-10-24	Q1	1.04	1.18	0.92	$3.71B	18	7 / 2
2026-10-24	Q2	0.98	1.10	0.84	$3.70B	36	11 / 0

Analyst actions

Stored rating changes and targets. The consensus numbers are the same ones the sentiment component read.

Date	Firm	Action	From	To	Target	Consensus	% buy
2026-10-25	Northgate Securities	initiated	Sell	Sell	$91.34	2.35	47%
2026-09-04	Kestrel Analytics	maintained	Buy	Buy	$95.05	2.35	61%
2026-07-13	Halcyon Partners	maintained	Outperform	Outperform	$81.49	2.35	48%
2026-05-23	Halcyon Partners	upgrade	Hold	Sell	$90.85	2.35	46%
2026-04-01	Meridian Research	downgrade	Buy	Hold	$81.63	2.35	58%

Ownership, insiders and short interest

Inst. position change-59.8%reported change vs the prior stored quarter

Net insider (USD)not stored

Short % of float12.9%

Days to cover28.3

Period end	Holder	Type	Shares	Value	% float	Change
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	30.8M	$2.67B	8.8%	not stored
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	30.8M	$2.67B	8.8%	not stored
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	30.8M	$2.67B	8.8%	not stored
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	30.8M	$2.67B	8.8%	not stored
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	30.8M	$2.67B	8.8%	not stored
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	30.8M	$2.67B	8.8%	not stored
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	30.8M	$2.67B	8.8%	not stored
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	30.8M	$2.67B	8.8%	not stored

Dividends and splits

Ex-date	Pay date	Amount	Frequency	Yield at ex
2026-08-30	2026-09-17	$0.260	quarterly	1.20%
2026-08-29	2026-09-16	$0.260	quarterly	1.20%
2026-08-28	2026-09-15	$0.260	quarterly	1.20%
2026-06-14	2026-07-02	$0.261	quarterly	1.20%
2026-06-13	2026-07-01	$0.261	quarterly	1.20%
2026-06-12	2026-06-30	$0.261	quarterly	1.20%
2026-03-01	2026-03-19	$0.262	quarterly	1.20%
2026-02-28	2026-03-18	$0.262	quarterly	1.20%
2026-02-27	2026-03-17	$0.262	quarterly	1.20%
2025-11-30	2025-12-18	$0.263	quarterly	1.20%

Nothing stored yet.

Options

No chain stored for this symbol

Full chain Flow

No option chain stored.

Chains are only stored for symbols the options job covers, and only for the expiry it snapshots.

Open the flow page for a symbol that has data, or run the options ingestion.

News mentioning UNH

Stored headlines linked to this security, newest first. Sentiment scores come from the stored scorer, not from this page.

Demo synthetic: UNH cut to neutral on valuation

analyst 17 days ago -72% sentiment importance 0

Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.

Demo synthetic: UNH cut to neutral on valuation

analyst 17 days ago -72% sentiment importance 0

Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.

Demo synthetic: UNH cut to neutral on valuation

analyst 17 days ago -72% sentiment importance 0

Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.

Demo synthetic: UNH cut to neutral on valuation

analyst 19 days ago -72% sentiment importance 0

Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.

Score

qm_ai_scores row #1443

58.1

composite / 100 · model score-1.0.0

CONSTRUCTIVE risk LOW confidence 54

Technical 25 60.8

Fundamental 25 57.0

Momentum 15 43.8

Sentiment 10 65.1

Institutional 10 26.9

Risk 15 86.0

Why the model scored it this way

SENTIMENT Analyst Distribution 100
105% Buy/Strong Buy · 0% Hold · 1% Sell/Short
RISK Correlation 97
Correlation to benchmark 0.63-year rolling: 0.21
RISK Liquidity 96
Average $450.9M traded per session
SENTIMENT Sentiment Delta 95
30-day sentiment change 23.6 pts
SENTIMENT Recent Headline Tone 5
Last items: 0 positive / 4 negative headlines
RISK Gap Risk 95
Median overnight gap 0.58% — position sizing must survive opens
SENTIMENT Estimate Revisions 92
Net EPS estimate revisions (90d): 42
RISK Sector Risk 88
Sector average volatility 22.4%
RISK Market Risk 85
Benchmark volatility 20.1% · regime: Sideways · normal vol · risk-off
RISK Event Risk Earnings 82
No earnings inside the next 3 weeks
RISK Drawdown History 81
Max drawdown in stored history -25.3%
RISK Beta 80
Beta 0.28 vs the reference index
MOMENTUM Relative Strength Vs Index 22
3-month return minus index -17.3%
INSTITUTIONAL Institutional Flows 22
Reported 13F-style positioning change -59.8% vs prior quarter2026-09-01

Scored on synthetic demonstration data. Directionally realistic, not a forecast of any real market.

Levels

Stored support/resistance from the snapshot row, not drawn from the chart in the browser.

Resistance (stored): $101.76
Support (stored): $89.87
20-day SMA: $85.35
50-day SMA: $84.33
200-day SMA: $92.11
Trend: up
Above SMA50 / SMA200: yes / no
From 52w high: -19.3%
MACD histogram: 0.335
RSI(14): 55.0
Relative strength (3m): -17.3%
RS rank: not stored /100

Sentiment

Stored buckets (each row is one scoring run over the news window).

Bucket start	Score	Label	Mentions	Method
2026-10-22 04:00	-19%	negative	22	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 13:00	-36%	negative	29	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 14:00	-36%	negative	29	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 16:00	-36%	negative	29	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 17:00	-36%	negative	29	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-24 23:00	-36%	negative	29	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-25 02:00	-36%	negative	29	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-25 04:00	-36%	negative	29	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment

Catalysts and risks

Stored catalysts

Earnings report 2026-12-10 (after close)
Demo synthetic: UNH cut to neutral on valuation
Demo synthetic: UNH cut to neutral on valuation
Demo synthetic: UNH cut to neutral on valuation
Street target implies 1.5%

Stored risks

Binary event: 2026-12-10

Same sector

Ranked by stored composite score.

Symbol	Price	1d	Score	Stance
TMO	$380.59	-1.07%	64.1	CONSTRUCTIVE
ABT	$239.64	+1.39%	63.4	CONSTRUCTIVE
AMGN	$384.83	-1.74%	59.8	CONSTRUCTIVE
MRK	$179.06	-1.52%	59.8	CONSTRUCTIVE
LLY	$197.94	-1.79%	59.4	CONSTRUCTIVE
ABBV	$106.19	-0.13%	59.3	CONSTRUCTIVE

Validation

Forecasts on this symbol whose horizon has matured, scored against the stored bars.

All models

Nothing to score yet: settle the matured forecasts with php bin/pipeline.php --cmd=settle and this table fills with realised-versus-forecast rows.

Peer comparison

Symbol	Price	1d	Cap	P/E	PEG	P/S	P/B	Rev growth	EPS growth	ROE	Gross	Op margin
ABBV	$106.19	-0.13%	$63.4B	22.60×	1.44	4.83×	3.33×	+15.3%	+20.2%	14.7%	50.3%	25.2%
PFE	$87.79	-1.35%	$66.4B	10.37×	5.88	1.47×	4.90×	+2.7%	+2.1%	47.3%	28.4%	16.9%
MRK	$179.06	-1.52%	$121B	21.53×	1.78	5.57×	5.82×	+11.3%	+12.9%	27.0%	55.5%	26.4%
LLY	$197.94	-1.79%	$153B	27.29×	1.86	6.65×	5.94×	+13.8%	+17.2%	21.8%	50.3%	25.1%
ABT	$239.64	+1.39%	$157B	22.19×	3.07	3.94×	4.87×	+8.5%	+8.0%	21.9%	35.3%	20.6%
JNJ	$292.66	-0.23%	$276B	27.46×	3.46	4.81×	2.60×	+9.4%	+8.9%	9.5%	33.7%	17.6%
AMGN	$384.83	-1.74%	$284B	26.34×	3.93	5.11×	1.16×	+7.5%	+8.3%	4.4%	45.9%	22.5%
TMO	$380.59	-1.07%	$299B	18.63×	4.81	4.44×	5.08×	+4.6%	+4.3%	27.3%	55.3%	28.6%
ISRG	$541.81	-0.90%	$389B	24.16×	1.77	7.14×	4.12×	+12.5%	+15.3%	17.1%	67.4%	31.6%

What this page did not do.

It did not fetch a quote, call an external model, or extend the chart. It read 168800 stored bar rows in total across the universe (demo data, last trade 2026-10-23), and the score shown here was written at 2026-10-25 04:13 by model score-1.0.0.