Probability and return calculator
What a stake buys at a given probability, what it pays if you are right, what it costs if you are wrong, and the probability you have to beat to break even after your own fee assumption.
Qvicom Signal does not model Polymarket's fee schedule, because it is not published in a form this application can verify. The fee field is your own assumption, charged as a percentage of the amount staked. Set it to zero to see the arithmetic before costs.
Every figure is arithmetic on the numbers you entered: one share pays $1.00 if the outcome resolves true. It ignores order-book depth, partial fills, gas, currency conversion and the possibility that the venue resolves differently from your reading. It is not a quote, a forecast or advice.
Want to practise with virtual money? The virtual portfolio fills simulated orders at stored captures. Want to write down why you think what you think? The journal. Reading first? Ten short topics on risk.