Bull case
If a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.
band +2.5% … +5.0% · 521.19 – 521.19
Advanced Micro Devices
AMD DETERIORATING MEDIUM EQUITY DEMO
$521.19
-2.33%
1-day change from the stored snapshot · 2 days ago
DEMO DATASET last stored bar 2026-10-23 · scores computed 2026-10-25 04:13:59 · every figure below is read from these rows, nothing is computed in the browser
Price · stored daily bars
126 bars ending 2026-10-23 · demo data
Indicators are computed from the same stored closes the score used; the forecast fan is drawn from qm_predictions, not from a live model call.
how this is drawn
Open$538.21
Day range$561.86 / $513.96
Prev close$533.64
Volume25.0M
RVOL 30d1.64×session volume over stored 30-day average
Avg $ volume$9.13B
Market cap$971B
HV2050.6% ann.
Beta0.95
RSI(14)32.8
ATR %8.34%
Max drawdown-62.2%
52-week rangefrom $479.94 to $1,390.00
52-week low / high$479.94 / $1,390.00
From 52w high-62.5%
Liquiditynot storeddays of average volume to fill 1% of float
Forecast
Stored scenarios from the last pipeline run. The model that wrote them is named on each row; no forecast is generated when you look at this page.
| Horizon | Ref | Bull high | Base range | Bear low | P10 → P90 | P(up) | Confidence | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D
2026-10-25 04:13:59 |
521.19 | 547.25 +5.0% | 510.77 → 531.61 -2.0% … +2.0% |
495.13 -5.0% | 500.34 → 542.04 | 49.0% | 55 760 bars, blended vol 52%, score 48, coverage 100%% |
LOW
HV 51.9% ann. · 760 bars |
| 5D
2026-10-25 04:13:59 |
521.19 | 578.52 +11.0% | 495.13 → 547.25 -5.0% … +5.0% |
458.65 -12.0% | 474.28 → 568.10 | 49.0% | 55 760 bars, blended vol 52%, score 48, coverage 100%% |
LOW
HV 51.9% ann. · 760 bars |
| 1M
2026-10-25 04:13:59 |
521.19 | 641.06 +23.0% | 469.07 → 568.10 -10.0% … +9.0% |
396.10 -24.0% | 422.16 → 615.00 | 49.0% | 55 760 bars, blended vol 52%, score 48, coverage 100%% |
MEDIUM
HV 51.9% ann. · 760 bars |
| 3M
2026-10-25 04:13:59 |
521.19 | 732.27 +40.5% | 435.19 → 607.19 -16.5% … +16.5% |
310.11 -40.5% | 357.02 → 685.36 | 49.0% | 55 760 bars, blended vol 52%, score 48, coverage 100%% |
MEDIUM
HV 51.9% ann. · 760 bars |
| 6M
2026-10-25 04:13:59 |
521.19 | 818.27 +57.0% | 396.10 → 638.46 -24.0% … +22.5% |
216.29 -58.5% | 286.65 → 747.91 | 49.0% | 55 760 bars, blended vol 52%, score 48, coverage 100%% |
HIGH
HV 51.9% ann. · 760 bars |
| 12M
2026-10-25 04:13:59 |
521.19 | 938.14 +80.0% | 338.77 → 690.58 -35.0% … +32.5% |
91.21 -82.5% | 182.42 → 846.93 | 49.0% | 55 760 bars, blended vol 52%, score 48, coverage 100%% |
VERY_HIGH
HV 51.9% ann. · 760 bars |
Base case
mildly positive
band -2.0% … +2.0% · 521.19 – 521.19
Bear case
Downside triggers: P/E 39× leaves no valuation buffer; realised volatility already elevated; momentum is fading. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.
band -5.0% … -2.5% · 521.19 – 521.19
Catalysts the model is watching
- Earnings report 2026-12-10 (after close)
- Demo synthetic: AMD faces second request in pending acquisition
- Demo synthetic: AMD faces second request in pending acquisition
- Demo synthetic: AMD faces second request in pending acquisition
- Street target implies -1%
Key risks & invalidation
- Elevated realised volatility (50.6%)
- Historic drawdown deeper than 62%
- Binary event: 2026-12-10
Model assumptions
- Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 51.9% annualised).
- The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).
- Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.
- Index regime assumed: sideways.
- Close below the 823.71 support band or the strategy stop.
- Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.
- Volatility expanding beyond 83% annualised invalidates position sizing.
- Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change).
Reference price 521.19 at
2026-10-25 04:13:59 · regime at generation
sideways · data
demo · freshness
112439s.
These bands are conditional distributions from stored inputs, not advice or a promise about outcomes.
Fundamentals
Latest stored period · FY2026 · filed 2026-12-31
Revenue$185BYoY +39.7%
EPS (TTM)13.20growth +42.5%
Net income$24.6B
Free cash flow$24.9Bmargin 13.2%
Gross margin29.0%
Operating margin13.6%
ROE9.5%
ROIC9.6%
Debt / equity0.67
Current ratio0.91
Interest cover8.44×
Net debt$944M
P/E38.99×
P/E forward27.73×
PEG0.96
P/S · P/B · EV/EBITDA5.19 · 3.70 · 26.89
Dividend yield0.05%payout 54%
Buyback yield0.13%
Profit margin13.3%
Cash$14.4B
Stored periods (raw rows, newest first)
| Period | Revenue | Revenue YoY | EPS | Gross margin | Op margin | FCF margin | ROE | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 FY | $185B | +39.7% | 13.20 | 29.0% | 13.6% | 13.2% | 9.5% | 2026-12-31 |
| FY2025 FY | $133B | +39.3% | 9.52 | 25.4% | 14.1% | 13.5% | 3.5% | 2025-12-31 |
| FY2024 FY | $94.2B | +39.7% | 6.73 | 28.0% | 15.9% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 2024-12-31 |
| FY2023 FY | $66.1B | +40.4% | 4.72 | 30.6% | 14.9% | 11.4% | 6.6% | 2023-12-31 |
| Q4 2026 Q | $16.5B | +40.4% | 1.18 | 30.6% | 14.9% | 11.4% | 6.6% | 2026-07-01 |
Earnings and estimates
Next stored report 2026-12-10 · 33 day(s) away
Implied move7.0%from the stored option chain
EPS estimate3.50
Revenue estimate$46.2B
Consensus index38.3stored on 0–100 in the snapshot; higher = more constructive
% buy ratingsnot storednull on this row — the snapshot job did not store it
Target upsidenot stored
Gap risk1.09%median overnight gap
Time of dayamc
| Report | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Rev est | Rev actual | Guidance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-10 | 3.50 | not stored | not stored | $46.2B | not stored | none | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-10-23 | 3.52 | not stored | not stored | $46.2B | not stored | none | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-07-19 | 3.52 | 3.49 | -0.7% | $46.2B | $44.8B | lower | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-06-01 | 3.54 | 3.82 | +7.9% | $46.2B | $46.7B | raise | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-04-14 | 3.52 | 3.06 | -13.1% | $46.2B | $44.4B | raise | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-02-25 | 3.53 | 3.48 | -1.2% | $46.2B | $46.4B | lower | synthetic_demo |
| 2026-01-08 | 3.31 | 2.94 | -11.2% | $46.2B | $47.6B | raise | synthetic_demo |
| 2025-11-21 | 3.51 | 3.40 | -3.1% | $46.2B | $45.6B | maintain | synthetic_demo |
| As of | Horizon | EPS avg | EPS high | EPS low | Revenue | Analysts | 90d revisions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | FY1 | 15.05 | 15.65 | 11.55 | $195B | 14 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | FY2 | 15.64 | 18.49 | 14.93 | $190B | 21 | 9 / 0 |
| 2026-10-25 | Q1 | 3.71 | 4.14 | 3.66 | $49.7B | 10 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | Q2 | 3.74 | 3.88 | 3.00 | $50.3B | 12 | 0 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | FY1 | 15.05 | 15.65 | 11.55 | $195B | 14 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | FY2 | 15.64 | 18.49 | 14.93 | $190B | 21 | 9 / 0 |
| 2026-10-24 | Q1 | 3.71 | 4.14 | 3.66 | $49.7B | 10 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | Q2 | 3.74 | 3.88 | 3.00 | $50.3B | 12 | 0 / 3 |
Analyst actions
Stored rating changes and targets. The consensus numbers are the same ones the sentiment component read.
| Date | Firm | Action | From | To | Target | Consensus | % buy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Meridian Research | downgrade | Buy | Sell | $541.07 | 4.34 | 3% |
| 2026-09-01 | Meridian Research | upgrade | Hold | Outperform | $604.36 | 4.34 | 5% |
| 2026-07-19 | Kestrel Analytics | downgrade | Buy | Hold | $509.95 | 4.34 | 16% |
| 2026-05-23 | Halcyon Partners | upgrade | Hold | Buy | $461.34 | 4.34 | 8% |
| 2026-04-01 | Northgate Securities | initiated | Outperform | Outperform | $464.41 | 4.34 | 4% |
Ownership, insiders and short interest
Inst. position change-67.3%reported change vs the prior stored quarter
Net insider (USD)$-27.0M
Short % of float8.1%
Days to cover16.9
| Period end | Holder | Type | Shares | Value | % float | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Fidelity Concord | fund | 80.9M | $42.2B | 7.0% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | Fidelity Concord | fund | 80.9M | $42.2B | 7.0% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | Fidelity Concord | fund | 80.9M | $42.2B | 7.0% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | Fidelity Concord | fund | 80.9M | $42.2B | 7.0% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | Fidelity Concord | fund | 80.9M | $42.2B | 7.0% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | Fidelity Concord | fund | 80.9M | $42.2B | 7.0% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | Fidelity Concord | fund | 80.9M | $42.2B | 7.0% | not stored |
| 2026-09-01 | Fidelity Concord | fund | 80.9M | $42.2B | 7.0% | not stored |
| Trade date | Owner | Title | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Owned after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Demo Officer 0A54B9 | Director | Sale - Tax | 51.7k | $572.57 | $27.0M | 1.08M |
| 2026-07-10 | Demo Officer 3ACA7D | Chief Financial Officer | Option Exercise (option) | 211k | $480.48 | $110M | 3.49M |
| 2026-06-30 | Demo Officer E35D03 | Director | Sale - Open Market | 222k | $542.58 | $116M | 8.52M |
| 2026-03-24 | Demo Officer 418F2F | General Counsel | Buy - Open Market | 102k | $454.02 | $53.2M | 4.23M |
| 2026-02-28 | Demo Officer 8C24E1 | Director | Buy - 10b5-1 Plan | 82.3k | $478.58 | $42.9M | 2.37M |
| 2026-02-22 | Demo Officer 4A14E6 | Director | Buy - Open Market | 178k | $509.78 | $92.9M | 2.31M |
Options
Stored chain for expiry 2026-11-06 · 9 call / 9 put strikes
Strikes stored189 calls / 9 puts on this expiry
Chain volume75.2kcontracts across all listed strikes
Chain open interest554k
Chain IV (mean)65.5%the column stores a fraction; ×100 for display
Put/call volume1.116from the daily aggregate row for 2026-10-25
Call / put volume27.4k / 30.6k
IV3057.4%stored as a fraction
HV3053.4%realised 30-day vol
IV rank83.7 /100
OI change-0.4%percent, as stored
Expiries stored12
Chain as of2026-10-23 17:35
| When | Expiry | Strike | Right | Contracts | Premium | Unusual | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 13:46 | 2026-11-11 | $527.50 | CALL | 204k | $3.19M | 5.08 | sweep across exchanges |
| 2026-10-24 23:42 | 2026-11-12 | $527.50 | CALL | 204k | $3.19M | 5.08 | sweep across exchanges |
| 2026-10-23 14:25 | 2026-11-11 | $527.50 | CALL | 204k | $3.19M | 5.08 | sweep across exchanges |
| 2026-10-25 02:40 | 2026-11-13 | $527.50 | CALL | 204k | $3.19M | 5.08 | sweep across exchanges |
| 2026-10-23 16:05 | 2026-11-11 | $527.50 | CALL | 204k | $3.19M | 5.08 | sweep across exchanges |
| 2026-10-25 04:13 | 2026-11-13 | $527.50 | CALL | 204k | $3.19M | 5.08 | sweep across exchanges |
| 2026-10-23 16:58 | 2026-11-11 | $527.50 | CALL | 204k | $3.19M | 5.08 | sweep across exchanges |
| 2026-10-23 17:35 | 2026-11-11 | $527.50 | CALL | 204k | $3.19M | 5.08 | sweep across exchanges |
Flow rows are stored observations of size, not information about who traded.
The flagged note on each row says so; nothing here implies insider activity.
News mentioning AMD
Stored headlines linked to this security, newest first. Sentiment scores come from the stored scorer, not from this page.
Demo synthetic: AMD faces second request in pending acquisition
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: AMD faces second request in pending acquisition
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: AMD faces second request in pending acquisition
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: AMD faces second request in pending acquisition
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: AMD faces second request in pending acquisition
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: AMD faces second request in pending acquisition
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: AMD faces second request in pending acquisition
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: AMD faces second request in pending acquisition
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, AMD beta repriced
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, AMD beta repriced
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, AMD beta repriced
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, AMD beta repriced
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, AMD beta repriced
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, AMD beta repriced
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.