Microsoft Corp.
MSFT
NEUTRAL MEDIUM EQUITY
DEMO
$235.96
-2.04% 1-day change from the stored snapshot · 27 hours ago
DEMO DATASET
last stored bar 2026-10-23 · scores computed 2026-10-23 17:35:22 · every figure below is read from these rows, nothing is computed in the browser
Price · stored daily bars
126 bars ending 2026-10-23 · demo data
1M
3M
6M
1Y
2Y
5Y
MAX
SMA 20
SMA 50
SMA 200
Bollinger
VWAP
Indicators are computed from the same stored closes the score used; the forecast fan is drawn from qm_predictions, not from a live model call.
how this is drawn
Open $243.55
Day range $245.29 / $234.36
Prev close $240.87
Volume 88.1M
RVOL 30d 1.29× session volume over stored 30-day average
Avg $ volume $16.2B
Market cap $1.40T
HV20 25.3% ann.
Beta 0.46
RSI(14) 49.2
ATR % 4.69%
Max drawdown -52.3%
52-week range from $218.20 to $479.51
52-week low / high $218.20 / $479.51
From 52w high -50.8%
Liquidity not stored days of average volume to fill 1% of float
Forecast
Stored scenarios from the last pipeline run. The model that wrote them is named on each row; no forecast is generated when you look at this page.
1D +1.0%
5D +2.0%
1M +3.0%
3M +6.0%
6M +7.5%
12M +12.5%
Horizon Ref Bull high Base range Bear low
P10 → P90 P(up) Confidence Risk
1D
2026-10-23 17:35:22
235.96
240.68 +2.0%
234.78 → 238.32 -0.5% … +1.0%
231.24 -2.0%
232.42 → 239.50
53.0% 68 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 56, coverage 100%%
LOW
HV 25.9% ann. · 760 bars
5D
2026-10-23 17:35:22
235.96
245.40 +4.0%
233.60 → 240.68 -1.0% … +2.0%
228.88 -3.0%
231.24 → 243.04
53.0% 68 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 56, coverage 100%%
LOW
HV 25.9% ann. · 760 bars
1M
2026-10-23 17:35:22
235.96
252.48 +7.0%
231.24 → 243.04 -2.0% … +3.0%
221.80 -6.0%
224.16 → 250.12
53.0% 68 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 56, coverage 100%%
LOW
HV 25.9% ann. · 760 bars
3M
2026-10-23 17:35:22
235.96
264.28 +12.0%
225.34 → 250.12 -4.5% … +6.0%
211.18 -10.5%
214.72 → 260.74
53.0% 68 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 56, coverage 100%%
LOW
HV 25.9% ann. · 760 bars
6M
2026-10-23 17:35:22
235.96
278.43 +18.0%
221.80 → 253.66 -6.0% … +7.5%
200.57 -15.0%
207.64 → 267.81
53.0% 68 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 56, coverage 100%%
LOW
HV 25.9% ann. · 760 bars
12M
2026-10-23 17:35:22
235.96
294.95 +25.0%
218.26 → 265.46 -7.5% … +12.5%
182.87 -22.5%
194.67 → 283.15
53.0% 68 760 bars, blended vol 26%, score 56, coverage 100%%
MEDIUM
HV 25.9% ann. · 760 bars
Bull case
If RSI mid-range — room to extend, fundamentals scoring above the coverage median, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.
band +1.0% … +2.0% · 235.96 – 235.96
Base case
mildly positive
band -0.5% … +1.0% · 235.96 – 235.96
Bear case
Downside triggers: momentum is fading. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.
band -2.0% … -1.0% · 235.96 – 235.96
Catalysts the model is watching
Earnings report 2026-10-23 (after close)
Demo synthetic: options market shows elevated MSFT skew into event
Demo synthetic: options market shows elevated MSFT skew into event
Demo synthetic: options market shows elevated MSFT skew into event
Street target implies 10.5%
Key risks & invalidation
Historic drawdown deeper than 52%
Binary event: 2026-10-23
Model assumptions
Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 25.9% annualised).
The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).
Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.
Index regime assumed: sideways.
Close below the 299.7 support band or the strategy stop.
Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.
Volatility expanding beyond 42% annualised invalidates position sizing.
Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change).
Reference price 235.96 at
2026-10-23 17:35:22 · regime at generation
sideways · data
demo · freshness
0s.
These bands are conditional distributions from stored inputs, not advice or a promise about outcomes.
Fundamentals
Latest stored period · FY2026 · filed 2026-12-31
Revenue $201B YoY +10.3%
EPS (TTM) 11.32 growth +8.9%
Net income $67.0B
Free cash flow $68.5B margin 27.8%
Gross margin 75.0%
Operating margin 37.6%
ROE 25.6%
ROIC 19.2%
Debt / equity 0.79
Current ratio 2.13
Interest cover 13.11×
Net debt $83.1B
P/E 21.12×
P/E forward 19.35×
PEG 2.31
P/S · P/B · EV/EBITDA 7.04 · 5.41 · 14.57
Dividend yield 0.47% payout 58%
Buyback yield 0.11%
Profit margin 33.3%
Cash $41.7B
Stored periods (raw rows, newest first)
Period Revenue Revenue YoY EPS Gross margin Op margin FCF margin ROE Filed FY2026 FY $201B +10.3% 11.32 75.0% 37.6% 27.8% 25.6% 2026-12-31 FY2025 FY $182B +8.8% 10.27 76.2% 39.6% 28.8% 30.1% 2025-12-31 FY2024 FY $169B +7.9% 9.51 71.6% 39.9% 36.6% 5.2% 2024-12-31 FY2023 FY $154B +9.6% 8.68 71.6% 39.3% 30.7% 4.5% 2023-12-31 Q4 2026 Q $38.5B +9.6% 2.17 71.6% 39.3% 30.7% 4.5% 2026-07-01
Earnings and estimates
Next stored report 2026-12-10 · 0 day(s) away
Implied move 5.9% from the stored option chain
EPS estimate 2.73
Revenue estimate $50.2B
Consensus index 51.1 stored on 0–100 in the snapshot; higher = more constructive
% buy ratings not stored null on this row — the snapshot job did not store it
Target upside not stored
Gap risk 0.52% median overnight gap
Time of day amc
Report EPS est EPS actual Surprise Rev est Rev actual Guidance Source 2026-12-10 2.73 not stored not stored $50.2B not stored none synthetic_demo 2026-10-23 2.67 not stored not stored $50.2B not stored none synthetic_demo 2026-07-19 2.94 2.63 -10.6% $50.2B $51.2B lower synthetic_demo 2026-06-01 2.94 2.88 -2.1% $50.2B $51.4B lower synthetic_demo 2026-04-14 2.93 3.02 +3.0% $50.2B $48.4B maintain synthetic_demo 2026-02-25 2.92 2.84 -2.7% $50.2B $51.8B maintain synthetic_demo 2026-01-08 3.10 3.24 +4.6% $50.2B $50.4B raise synthetic_demo 2025-11-21 3.10 3.34 +7.9% $50.2B $48.4B maintain synthetic_demo
As of Horizon EPS avg EPS high EPS low Revenue Analysts 90d revisions 2026-10-23 FY1 12.50 14.05 10.41 $213B 11 2 / 9 2026-10-23 FY2 13.08 14.79 12.50 $208B 31 0 / 2 2026-10-23 Q1 3.14 3.55 2.86 $50.8B 26 2 / 5 2026-10-23 Q2 3.28 3.93 2.49 $52.3B 11 0 / 7
Analyst actions
Stored rating changes and targets. The consensus numbers are the same ones the sentiment component read.
Date Firm Action From To Target Consensus % buy 2026-10-12 Northgate Securities upgrade Hold Hold $295.80 2.82 37% 2026-08-20 Blue Harbor Capital Research downgrade Buy Buy $290.93 2.82 45% 2026-07-05 Northgate Securities maintained Outperform Outperform $224.08 2.82 38% 2026-05-28 Halcyon Partners maintained Outperform Outperform $286.16 2.82 51% 2026-04-01 Kestrel Analytics initiated Hold Hold $206.59 2.82 51%
Ownership, insiders and short interest
Inst. position change -57.5% reported change vs the prior stored quarter
Net insider (USD) not stored
Short % of float 6.1%
Days to cover 11.4
Period end Holder Type Shares Value % float Change 2026-09-01 Vanguard Index Group fund 326M $76.9B 8.9% not stored 2026-09-01 Vanguard Index Group fund 326M $76.9B 8.9% not stored 2026-09-01 Vanguard Index Group fund 326M $76.9B 8.9% not stored 2026-09-01 Vanguard Index Group fund 326M $76.9B 8.9% not stored 2026-09-01 Vanguard Index Group fund 326M $76.9B 8.9% not stored 2026-09-01 State Street Global Advisors fund 311M $73.3B 8.5% not stored 2026-09-01 State Street Global Advisors fund 311M $73.3B 8.5% not stored 2026-09-01 State Street Global Advisors fund 311M $73.3B 8.5% not stored
Ex-date Pay date Amount Frequency Yield at ex 2026-08-28 2026-09-15 $0.277 quarterly 0.47% 2026-06-12 2026-06-30 $0.278 quarterly 0.47% 2026-03-20 2026-04-07 $0.280 quarterly 0.47% 2025-12-19 2026-01-06 $0.281 quarterly 0.47% 2025-08-29 2025-09-16 $0.282 quarterly 0.47% 2025-06-20 2025-07-08 $0.283 quarterly 0.47% 2025-03-21 2025-04-08 $0.284 quarterly 0.47% 2024-12-20 2025-01-07 $0.285 quarterly 0.47% 2024-09-13 2024-10-01 $0.286 quarterly 0.47%
Options
Stored chain for expiry 2026-11-06 · 9 call / 9 put strikes
Strikes stored 18 9 calls / 9 puts on this expiry
Chain volume 87.7k contracts across all listed strikes
Chain open interest 575k
Chain IV (mean) 29.4% the column stores a fraction; ×100 for display
Put/call volume 1.520 from the daily aggregate row for 2026-10-23
Call / put volume 29.4k / 44.7k
IV30 25.6% stored as a fraction
HV30 25.7% realised 30-day vol
IV rank 46.3 /100
OI change +4.4% percent, as stored
Expiries stored 4
Chain as of 2026-10-23 17:35
News mentioning MSFT
Stored headlines linked to this security, newest first. Sentiment scores come from the stored scorer, not from this page.
Demo synthetic: options market shows elevated MSFT skew into event
other
8 days ago
+14% sentiment importance 0
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: options market shows elevated MSFT skew into event
other
8 days ago
+14% sentiment importance 0
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: options market shows elevated MSFT skew into event
other
8 days ago
+14% sentiment importance 0
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: options market shows elevated MSFT skew into event
other
8 days ago
+14% sentiment importance 0
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Demo synthetic: options market shows elevated MSFT skew into event
other
8 days ago
+14% sentiment importance 0
Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.
Score qm_ai_scores row #782
56.4
composite / 100 · model score-1.0.0
NEUTRAL
risk MEDIUM
confidence 63
Technical 25
49.9
Fundamental 25
66.4
Momentum 15
39.7
Sentiment 10
61.5
Institutional 10
31.1
Risk 15
80.4
Why the model scored it this way
RISK
Liquidity
96
Average $16162.2M traded per session
RISK
Correlation
95
Correlation to benchmark 0.63-year rolling: 0.37
SENTIMENT
Sentiment Delta
95
30-day sentiment change 16.1 pts
RISK
Gap Risk
95
Median overnight gap 0.52% — position sizing must survive opens
SENTIMENT
Analyst Distribution
92
92% Buy/Strong Buy · 4% Hold · 4% Sell/Short
SENTIMENT
Estimate Revisions
10
Net EPS estimate revisions (90d): -19
FUNDAMENTAL
Gross Margin
88
Gross margin 75%
FUNDAMENTAL
Operating Margin
86
Operating margin 37.6%
RISK
Beta
86
Beta 0.46 vs the reference index
FUNDAMENTAL
Valuation Pe
85
P/E 21.1× vs sector median 37.5× (discount)
RISK
Market Risk
85
Benchmark volatility 20.1% · regime: Sideways · normal vol · risk-off
FUNDAMENTAL
Return On Equity
82
ROE 25.6%
FUNDAMENTAL
Free Cash Flow
82
FCF margin 27.8%
FUNDAMENTAL
Coverage
82
Interest coverage 13.1×
Scored on synthetic demonstration data . Directionally realistic, not a forecast of any real market.
Levels Stored support/resistance from the snapshot row, not drawn from the chart in the browser.
Resistance (stored)
$253.60
Support (stored)
$228.72
20-day SMA
$237.93
50-day SMA
$234.84
200-day SMA
$299.70
Trend
up
Above SMA50 / SMA200
yes / no From 52w high
-50.8% MACD histogram
-0.288
RSI(14)
49.2
Relative strength (3m)
-7.3% RS rank
not stored /100
Sentiment Stored buckets (each row is one scoring run over the news window).
Bucket start Score Label Mentions Method 2026-10-20 13:00 -26% negative 25 synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment 2026-10-20 14:00 -26% negative 25 synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment 2026-10-20 16:00 -26% negative 25 synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment 2026-10-20 17:00 -26% negative 25 synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment 2026-10-23 13:00 -27% negative 11 synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment 2026-10-23 14:00 -27% negative 11 synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment 2026-10-23 16:00 -27% negative 11 synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment 2026-10-23 17:00 -27% negative 11 synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
Stored catalysts Earnings report 2026-10-23 (after close) Demo synthetic: options market shows elevated MSFT skew into event Demo synthetic: options market shows elevated MSFT skew into event Demo synthetic: options market shows elevated MSFT skew into event Street target implies 10.5% Stored risks Historic drawdown deeper than 52% Binary event: 2026-10-23
Same sector Ranked by stored composite score.
Symbol Price 1d Score Stance CSCO $310.38 +1.53% 65.4 ACCUMULATE ATLS $27.00 -1.03% 64.8 CONSTRUCTIVE XLK $240.00 -0.59% 64.6 CONSTRUCTIVE NOW $409.75 +1.39% 64.6 CONSTRUCTIVE PLTR $48.96 +0.32% 60.8 CONSTRUCTIVE ORCL $584.14 -0.31% 60.4 CONSTRUCTIVE
Validation
Forecasts on this symbol whose horizon has matured, scored against the stored bars.
Nothing to score yet: settle the matured forecasts with
php bin/pipeline.php --cmd=settle and this table fills with realised-versus-forecast rows.
Symbol Price 1d Cap P/E PEG P/S P/B Rev growth EPS growth ROE Gross Op margin CSCO $310.38 +1.53% $1.53T 24.85× 1.85 8.17× 4.90× +13.9% +17.1% 19.7% 66.2% 37.4% CRM $205.75 -4.05% $1.22T 27.69× 2.85 5.85× 4.82× +10.3% +9.6% 17.4% 48.6% 21.3% NOW $409.75 +1.39% $1.18T 58.28× 1.58 11.79× 6.30× +38.2% +34.4% 10.8% 39.6% 20.6% AMD $521.19 -2.33% $971B 38.99× 0.96 5.19× 3.70× +39.7% +42.5% 9.5% 29.0% 13.6% AVGO $334.89 +1.12% $1.99T 23.51× 2.54 5.85× 0.98× +8.2% +10.3% 4.1% 54.1% 29.4% AAPL $136.25 -0.95% $595B 23.62× 3.25 6.62× 0.85× +8.7% +7.4% 3.6% 57.5% 29.2% NVDA $190.18 +0.10% $383B 36.75× 0.83 2.00× 4.56× +45.5% +59.2% 12.4% 12.1% 6.0% ADBE $530.53 -0.57% $2.47T 23.08× 1.99 4.66× 1.01× +10.3% +14.7% 4.4% 39.3% 20.4% SHOP $96.96 +3.50% $191B 63.65× 1.58 10.73× 2.13× +41.4% +53.5% 3.3% 34.9% 19.8% QCOM $55.28 -3.31% $179B 29.84× 4.28 5.58× 4.84× +6.0% +7.8% 16.2% 42.9% 19.1%
What this page did not do.
It did not fetch a quote, call an external model, or extend the chart. It read
156000 stored bar rows in total across the universe (demo data,
last trade 2026-10-23), and the score shown here was written at
2026-10-23 17:35 by model score-1.0.0.