VanEck Semiconductor ETF

SMH NEUTRAL MEDIUM ETF DEMO

$190.00 -0.28% 1-day change from the stored snapshot · 28 hours ago

DEMO DATASET last stored bar 2026-10-23 · scores computed 2026-10-23 17:35:23 · every figure below is read from these rows, nothing is computed in the browser

Price · stored daily bars

126 bars ending 2026-10-23 · demo data

Indicators are computed from the same stored closes the score used; the forecast fan is drawn from qm_predictions, not from a live model call. how this is drawn

Open$188.53

Day range$191.05 / $186.86

Prev close$190.53

Volume92.8M

RVOL 30d1.17×session volume over stored 30-day average

Avg $ volume$14.4B

Market capnot stored

HV2038.9% ann.

Beta0.99

RSI(14)59.3

ATR %3.64%

Max drawdown-55.7%

52-week rangefrom $151.83 to $360.46

52-week low / high$151.83 / $360.46

From 52w high-47.3%

Liquiditynot storeddays of average volume to fill 1% of float

Forecast

Stored scenarios from the last pipeline run. The model that wrote them is named on each row; no forecast is generated when you look at this page.

Horizon	Ref	Bull high	Base range	Bear low	P10 → P90	P(up)	Confidence	Risk
1D 2026-10-23 17:35:23	190.00	196.65 +3.5%	187.15 → 192.85 -1.5% … +1.5%	183.35 -3.5%	185.25 → 195.70	52.0%	66 760 bars, blended vol 35%, score 55, coverage 89%%	LOW HV 35.1% ann. · 760 bars
5D 2026-10-23 17:35:23	190.00	205.20 +8.0%	184.30 → 197.60 -3.0% … +4.0%	174.80 -8.0%	178.60 → 203.30	52.0%	66 760 bars, blended vol 35%, score 55, coverage 89%%	LOW HV 35.1% ann. · 760 bars
1M 2026-10-23 17:35:23	190.00	222.30 +17.0%	178.60 → 203.30 -6.0% … +7.0%	159.60 -16.0%	167.20 → 214.70	52.0%	66 760 bars, blended vol 35%, score 55, coverage 89%%	LOW HV 35.1% ann. · 760 bars
3M 2026-10-23 17:35:23	190.00	247.00 +30.0%	170.05 → 212.80 -10.5% … +12.0%	138.70 -27.0%	150.10 → 232.75	52.0%	66 760 bars, blended vol 35%, score 55, coverage 89%%	MEDIUM HV 35.1% ann. · 760 bars
6M 2026-10-23 17:35:23	190.00	269.80 +42.0%	161.50 → 224.20 -15.0% … +18.0%	115.90 -39.0%	133.00 → 252.70	52.0%	66 760 bars, blended vol 35%, score 55, coverage 89%%	MEDIUM HV 35.1% ann. · 760 bars
12M 2026-10-23 17:35:23	190.00	304.00 +60.0%	147.25 → 237.50 -22.5% … +25.0%	85.50 -55.0%	109.25 → 280.25	52.0%	66 760 bars, blended vol 35%, score 55, coverage 89%%	HIGH HV 35.1% ann. · 760 bars

Bull case

If RSI mid-range — room to extend, outperforming the benchmark over 3 months, a volatility-compressed setup resolving upward would accelerate the move, the upside path is the 80–95th percentile band shown here.

band +2.0% … +3.5% · 190.00 – 190.00

Base case

mildly positive

band -1.5% … +1.5% · 190.00 – 190.00

Bear case

Downside triggers: a market-wide risk-off move alone can carry the 5–20th percentile band. Treat the 5–20th percentile band as the stress case for sizing, not as a worst case.

band -3.5% … -1.5% · 190.00 – 190.00

Catalysts the model is watching

Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, SMH beta repriced

Key risks & invalidation

Historic drawdown deeper than 56%

Model assumptions

Realised volatility stays near its recent level (blended 35.1% annualised).
The scoring tilt persists over the window; no structural break (fraud, delisting, forced guidance cut).
Returns are approximated as lognormal; fat tails are handled by widening, not by point forecasts.
Index regime assumed: sideways.
Close below the 223.12 support band or the strategy stop.
Earnings or regulatory headline that changes forward estimates by more than the modelled window σ.
Volatility expanding beyond 56% annualised invalidates position sizing.
Loss of the fundamental pillars used in the score (guidance cut, covenant breach, auditor change).

Reference price 190.00 at 2026-10-23 17:35:23 · regime at generation sideways · data demo · freshness 0s. These bands are conditional distributions from stored inputs, not advice or a promise about outcomes.

Fundamentals and analyst coverage

Not applicable: SMH is stored as ETF, so there are no filings, EPS estimates or analyst ratings behind it. The technical, risk and sentiment components of the score still apply, and they are shown above.

Ownership, insiders and short interest

Inst. position change-58.1%reported change vs the prior stored quarter

Net insider (USD)not stored

Short % of floatnot stored

Days to covernot stored

Period end	Holder	Type	Shares	Value	% float	Change
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	103M	$19.5B	8.4%	not stored
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	103M	$19.5B	8.4%	not stored
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	103M	$19.5B	8.4%	not stored
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	103M	$19.5B	8.4%	not stored
2026-09-01	Vanguard Index Group	fund	103M	$19.5B	8.4%	not stored
2026-09-01	Capital Research Global	fund	83.0M	$15.8B	6.8%	not stored
2026-09-01	Capital Research Global	fund	83.0M	$15.8B	6.8%	not stored
2026-09-01	Capital Research Global	fund	83.0M	$15.8B	6.8%	not stored

Options

Stored chain for expiry 2026-11-06 · 9 call / 9 put strikes

Full chain Flow

Strikes stored189 calls / 9 puts on this expiry

Chain volume72.7kcontracts across all listed strikes

Chain open interest438k

Chain IV (mean)37.2%the column stores a fraction; ×100 for display

Put/call volume1.106from the daily aggregate row for 2026-10-23

Call / put volume36.5k / 40.3k

IV3033.0%stored as a fraction

HV3030.8%realised 30-day vol

IV rank72.9 /100

OI change-2.5%percent, as stored

Expiries stored4

Chain as of2026-10-23 17:35

News mentioning SMH

Stored headlines linked to this security, newest first. Sentiment scores come from the stored scorer, not from this page.

Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, SMH beta repriced

macro 18 days ago -13% sentiment importance 0

Synthetic demo item generated to exercise the sentiment pipeline. No external source; no factual content.

Score

qm_ai_scores row #885

55.3

composite / 100 · model score-1.0.0

NEUTRAL risk MEDIUM confidence 62

Technical 25 55.9

Fundamental 25 50.0

Momentum 15 58.6

Sentiment 10 50.8

Institutional 10 24.0

Risk 15 79.6

Why the model scored it this way

RISK Beta 96
Beta 0.99 vs the reference index
RISK Liquidity 96
Average $14424.1M traded per session
RISK Gap Risk 95
Median overnight gap 0.56% — position sizing must survive opens
RISK Correlation 88
Correlation to benchmark 0.63-year rolling: 0.58
RISK Market Risk 85
Benchmark volatility 20.1% · regime: Sideways · normal vol · risk-off
RISK Event Risk Earnings 82
No scheduled earnings date on file
INSTITUTIONAL Institutional Flows 22
Reported 13F-style positioning change -58.1% vs prior quarter2026-09-01
RISK Sector Risk 76
Sector average volatility 32%
TECHNICAL 52w Position 26
-47.3% from its 52-week high
INSTITUTIONAL Ownership Crowding 26
Institutions hold ~133.4% of float (crowding risk rises above ~78%)
MOMENTUM Relative Strength Vs Index 72
3-month return minus index +7.2%
TECHNICAL Volatility Compression 71
Bollinger width 9.3%
TECHNICAL Rsi Condition 71
RSI(14) 59.3 — constructive zone
TECHNICAL Trend Strength Adx 70
ADX(14) 31.9 — trending

Scored on synthetic demonstration data. Directionally realistic, not a forecast of any real market.

Levels

Stored support/resistance from the snapshot row, not drawn from the chart in the browser.

Resistance (stored): $174.98
Support (stored): $162.81
20-day SMA: $185.01
50-day SMA: $176.79
200-day SMA: $223.12
Trend: up
Above SMA50 / SMA200: yes / no
From 52w high: -47.3%
MACD histogram: -0.081
RSI(14): 59.3
Relative strength (3m): +7.2%
RS rank: not stored /100

Sentiment

Stored buckets (each row is one scoring run over the news window).

Bucket start	Score	Label	Mentions	Method
2026-10-20 13:00	-41%	negative	19	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-20 14:00	-41%	negative	19	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-20 16:00	-41%	negative	19	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-20 17:00	-41%	negative	19	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 13:00	+6%	neutral	3	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 14:00	+6%	neutral	3	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 16:00	+6%	neutral	3	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment
2026-10-23 17:00	+6%	neutral	3	synthetic demo tone index — not real sentiment

Catalysts and risks

Stored catalysts

Demo synthetic: rate expectations shift, SMH beta repriced

Stored risks

Historic drawdown deeper than 56%

Same sector

Ranked by stored composite score.

Symbol	Price	1d	Score	Stance
CSCO	$310.38	+1.53%	65.4	ACCUMULATE
ATLS	$27.00	-1.03%	64.8	CONSTRUCTIVE
XLK	$240.00	-0.59%	64.6	CONSTRUCTIVE
NOW	$409.75	+1.39%	64.6	CONSTRUCTIVE
PLTR	$48.96	+0.32%	60.8	CONSTRUCTIVE
ORCL	$584.14	-0.31%	60.4	CONSTRUCTIVE

Validation

Forecasts on this symbol whose horizon has matured, scored against the stored bars.

All models

Nothing to score yet: settle the matured forecasts with php bin/pipeline.php --cmd=settle and this table fills with realised-versus-forecast rows.

Peer comparison

Symbol	Price	1d	Cap	P/E	PEG	P/S	P/B	Rev growth	EPS growth	ROE	Gross	Op margin
ARM	$25.12	+0.54%	$38.6B	63.61×	1.85	3.45×	6.06×	+34.4%	+39.2%	9.5%	11.9%	5.7%
PLTR	$48.96	+0.32%	$99.4B	78.80×	1.69	12.45×	2.42×	+48.1%	+61.9%	3.1%	31.8%	18.7%
INTC	$143.92	-3.62%	$139B	11.58×	not stored	1.67×	2.31×	-2.0%	-2.0%	19.9%	30.7%	15.7%
QCOM	$55.28	-3.31%	$179B	29.84×	4.28	5.58×	4.84×	+6.0%	+7.8%	16.2%	42.9%	19.1%
SHOP	$96.96	+3.50%	$191B	63.65×	1.58	10.73×	2.13×	+41.4%	+53.5%	3.3%	34.9%	19.8%
NVDA	$190.18	+0.10%	$383B	36.75×	0.83	2.00×	4.56×	+45.5%	+59.2%	12.4%	12.1%	6.0%
AAPL	$136.25	-0.95%	$595B	23.62×	3.25	6.62×	0.85×	+8.7%	+7.4%	3.6%	57.5%	29.2%
AMD	$521.19	-2.33%	$971B	38.99×	0.96	5.19×	3.70×	+39.7%	+42.5%	9.5%	29.0%	13.6%
NOW	$409.75	+1.39%	$1.18T	58.28×	1.58	11.79×	6.30×	+38.2%	+34.4%	10.8%	39.6%	20.6%
CRM	$205.75	-4.05%	$1.22T	27.69×	2.85	5.85×	4.82×	+10.3%	+9.6%	17.4%	48.6%	21.3%

What this page did not do.

It did not fetch a quote, call an external model, or extend the chart. It read 156000 stored bar rows in total across the universe (demo data, last trade 2026-10-23), and the score shown here was written at 2026-10-23 17:35 by model score-1.0.0.