| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
11.6% |
— |
$14,990,127 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
87.1% |
+70.5 |
$7,427,100 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? |
93.5% |
— |
$1,322,179 |
| Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? |
99.1% |
+70.5 |
$1,182,749 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? |
6.5% |
+2.0 |
$930,237 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? |
79.5% |
— |
$677,367 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? |
27.5% |
— |
$654,606 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
91.5% |
— |
$603,580 |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? |
3.1% |
— |
$552,905 |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
8.5% |
— |
$530,759 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election… |
4.5% |
+3.9 |
$497,086 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? |
1.2% |
— |
$464,899 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less … |
10.5% |
— |
$463,926 |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? |
29.5% |
+1.0 |
$410,570 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election… |
83.5% |
+68.0 |
$393,269 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? |
3.7% |
— |
$335,699 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? |
86.0% |
— |
$319,987 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at le… |
1.0% |
— |
$299,503 |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? |
24.5% |
+3.5 |
$255,335 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? |
98.4% |
— |
$244,849 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? |
2.0% |
— |
$224,767 |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? |
68.5% |
— |
$215,900 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
40.4% |
— |
$203,854 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? |
2.9% |
— |
$201,699 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
6.2% |
+1.8 |
$198,147 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House |
0.9% |
+0.1 |
$196,979 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
65.5% |
— |
$177,791 |
| Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%? |
0.6% |
— |
$161,152 |
| France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? |
9.5% |
— |
$153,476 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? |
37.5% |
+1.0 |
$152,632 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? |
62.5% |
— |
$145,787 |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? |
69.0% |
— |
$143,829 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
20.0% |
+1.0 |
$137,553 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
11.5% |
— |
$115,810 |
| Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? |
32.0% |
+19.5 |
$115,153 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Sen… |
5.5% |
— |
$114,649 |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
34.5% |
+1.0 |
$109,736 |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? |
14.1% |
+1.3 |
$107,852 |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
71.0% |
— |
$100,178 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat? |
33.0% |
+11.5 |
$96,770 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
65.5% |
— |
$93,052 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27? |
90.0% |
— |
$86,456 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? |
43.3% |
— |
$86,164 |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? |
15.5% |
— |
$82,876 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? |
85.5% |
— |
$82,445 |
| Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more? |
35.0% |
+17.5 |
$81,102 |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential elec… |
89.3% |
— |
$80,518 |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
30.0% |
+1.5 |
$80,293 |
| Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
2.5% |
— |
$79,761 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? |
2.8% |
— |
$77,636 |