Risk education
Ten short topics. Not a course, not a promise, and deliberately without a "how to win" section: the material that helps is about cost, calibration and size, not about being certain.
Reading time is about 46 minutes in total. Nothing here is advice, and none of it guarantees an outcome.
What a market-implied probability actually means
4 min · A price of 0.62 is not a forecast, a promise, or the crowd being right. It is the price a…
Fees, spread and slippage: where the edge goes
5 min · A 5-point edge disappears fast when you pay the spread twice.
Calibration, Brier scores and being honest with yourself
6 min · The question is not whether you were right once. It is whether your 70%s happen 70% of th…
Base rates, anchoring and the number you saw first
5 min · The market price is an anchor. Noticing that is half the work.
Liquidity and exit risk
4 min · A position is only worth what someone will pay for it before it resolves.
Position sizing: the part that decides whether you survive
5 min · Being right about direction and wrong about size is still a bad outcome.
Resolution risk and reading the fine print
4 min · The market resolves on its criteria, not on what you think the question means.
The biases that cost money
5 min · Confirmation, recency, sunk cost, and the urge to be right in public.
Journaling and review that changes behaviour
4 min · A journal nobody reads is a diary. A journal with a monthly review is a tool.
Risk of ruin, and why "eventually right" is not a plan
4 min · You can be right on average and still be out of the game.